NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 10: Navigating Jeudy's Popular Markets

The NFL season is past the midway point and with the latter part of the season comes a ton of opportunistic prop markets. We’re looking into every market to uncover some of the week’s best side, team, player, and derivative prop bets. We do the heavy lifting so you don’t have to!

It’s Week 10 and we’re hopping on a pair of props from a Green Bay running back, following the sharp money in Denver, going to camp with D’Ernest, and taking an unsung hero in the Dallas passing game.

We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Week 10.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Johnson Over 76.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
• Dillon Over 41.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Dillon Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
• Jeudy Over 5.5 receptions (+100 at bet365)
• Schultz Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

D’Ernest Rides Again

The former fisherman, D’Ernest Johnson, will have the Cleveland backfield to himself Sunday versus the Patriots as Nick Chubb, Demetric Felton and John Kelly are all out due to COVID. Johnson impressed in his Thursday start against the Broncos with 168 total yards and a score. Those numbers are possible again Sunday with next to zero competition for snaps behind the Browns’ elite O-line.

The Browns lead the league in yards per rush at 5.3 while Johnson gained 6.6 yards per carry against Denver. Both the Pats and Broncos have bottom-15 success rates against the run. New England is also giving up 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and allowed the Chargers to gain 8.2 yards per carry just two weeks ago.

Johnson’s rushing total has jumped as high as 78.5 yards after opening at 73.5. This is still a play for us up to 78.5 yards and is still available at 76.5. Johnson had an impressive six rushes of 10-plus yards in his other start before finishing with 146 rushing yards on 22 carries. Cleveland is just one of five teams that averages 30-plus rushes per game.

PICK: D’Ernest Johnson Over 76.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)

All My Dillon

Green Bay’s A.J. Dillon has been one of the unsung heroes for this 7-2 Packers team. He’s averaging 50 rushing yards per game over his last six games and gets to see a Seahawks defense that ranks 14th in yards per rush allowed (4.3). Seattle also didn’t have to stop the run last week versus the Jaguars, played in the mud the game before, and saw the Steelers and their terrible O-line the game before that.  

Dillon was also featured in the passing game last week with Jordan Love under center and hauled in all four of his targets for 44 yards. It’s the second time in five games he’s caught four balls and eclipsed 40 yards receiving.

The Green Bay No. 2 is seeing roughly 40 percent of the backfield snaps and is gaining 4.7 yards per carry to Aaron Jones’ 4.3. Dillon had eight of the 20 RB carries last week and 16 of the 31 RB carries the week before, yet his rushing total is 20 yards fewer than Jones’ at 41.5, with some books hitting 43.5.

Dillon is 6-1 O/U on his rushing total over the last seven games, and with a receiving total at just 8.5 yards, we’re doubling down on the Green Bay RB. The Seahawks allow the most receiving yards to opposing RBs in football.

Dillon has 0.33 targets per route run over his last five games, which is the third-best mark on the team over that stretch. Aaron Rodgers has been activated off the COVID protocol list and will start Sunday, which is likely a boost for the Green Bay running game.

PICK: A.J. Dillon Over 41.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365) and Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Call of Jeudy

The Jerry Jeudy prop markets have been booming this week after the former Alabama receiver returned to the field two weeks ago. He finished last week with six grabs on eight targets for 69 yards, was featured heavily in the screen game, and finished with 3.5 air yards per reception. OC Pat Shurmur wants to get the ball into the hands of his best receiver, and we can take advantage of that in the prop world.

Jeudy’s receiving total opened at 53.5 but was hammered up to 65.5 yards. If you didn’t get in on that, we’d suggest you lay off. His reception total has jumped up, but at 5.5 paying +100, we still like this play.

The Philadelphia defense is good at keeping the ball in front of them. It’s allowed just 20 passes of 15 yards or further this year, which is a Top-5 mark, but it also allows a 75 percent completion percentage, which is by far the highest rate in the league. 

It’s no surprise the Eagles’ 29.3 completions allowed per game over their last three contests is the second-highest rate in the league. The Philly secondary gives up the short pass, and that's great news for Jeudy and his short-passing role that we’d expect to see again this week.

Jeudy leads the team in targets per route run at 0.26, and we’re jumping on the tails of all the sharp money on the Denver receiver this week and hitting the Over 5.5 receptions at even money, expecting more quick hitters for the pass-catcher.

PICK: Jerry Jeudy Over 5.5 receptions (+100 at bet365)

A Schultz in Sheep’s Clothing

Dalton Schultz might not be the sexiest name on the Dallas offense, but the tight end has been one of the team’s most consistent receivers this season and has at least 50 yards receiving in five of his last six games. He led the Cowboys in receiving yards with 54 in last week’s loss.

The books were catching on and opened his yardage total at 51.5 yards, which was eight yards more than last week. Well, the market has adjusted, and now his total can be had at a little more reasonable 48.5 yards. 

The Falcons are an average team at defending opposing tight ends at 52 yards per game but haven’t seen many good pass-catching TEs. Miami’s Mike Gesicki went 7/85/1 vs. the Falcons three games ago. Atlanta does a decent job defending opposing WRs and allows just 140 receiving yards to WRs which is a Top-10 mark.

Schultz has one of the safer floors out of the mid-tier TEs. He’s had at least five grabs or 50 yards in all but two of his games this season. Dak Prescott will be in a great spot to rebound after last week’s rough outing and Schultz’s receiving yard total is likely at the lowest point we’ll see it before kickoff.  

PICK: Dalton Schultz Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Swaim of Thrones

Geoff Swaim’s receiving yard prop has been non-existent over the last two weeks. That changed this week as the Tennessee tight end has been producing of late with his role within the offense growing.

Swaim has seen 99 snaps over the last two weeks, with 43 of those coming in the passing game. He has a target on 34 percent of his routes, which is nearly the same as A.J. Brown. Swaim has rewarded the Titans’ coaching staff with a 4/23/1 in Week 8 and a 4/29/1 in Week 9. He finished second on the team in targets in both those games and has three red zone targets as well. 

His receiving yard prop opened at 14.5 yards while his reception total of 1.5 is paying -150 to the Over. With the books liking the TE to grab more than one pass, the Over on his total yards seems like a no-brainer. 

The Titans managed just 2.7 yards per carry last week with their new rushing attack, and we don’t like them to improve on those numbers against the Saints’ tough run defense. More passes could be coming for the Tennessee offense Sunday and we’re betting on Swaim to be a part of the production.

PICK: Geoff Swaim Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Patterson of Man

Atlanta’s Cordarrelle Patterson is a unique hybrid player who lines up in the backfield (73 rushes on the season) and out wide (459 receiving yards). He leads the team in receptions and rushing yards and has 163 yards receiving over the last two weeks while Calvin Ridley sits out. 

Patterson has been consistent in the passing game, receiving at least five targets in each of his last seven games, and in those seven contests, the hybrid weapon has at least five catches in all but one of them.

Patterson’s yardage total is beginning to creep up after opening at 38.5. This total is as high as 42.5 at some places, which is expected considering he is coming off a 6/126/0 game versus the Saints last week.

The Cowboys allow an average of 12.8/190/1.1 to opposing wide receivers and with the Falcons coming in as 9-point dogs and having next to zero run game, Matt Ryan and the offense could be dropping back 45 times in what could be a shoot out. 

We’re riding the Over 40.5 receiving yards as Patterson has seven catches of over 20 yards on the season and Dallas has allowed the sixth-most explosive pass plays in the league.

PICK: Cordarrelle Patterson Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

King of the Hill

Hitting the Over on a reception total of 6.5 is not for the faint-hearted. Only 12 players recorded seven or more receptions last week and 17 the week before. Enter Kansas City’s Tyreek Hill. The offense has struggled to get any consistency, but Hill has been peppered with targets. He averages 11.2 targets per game (second) and 12.50 targets per game over the last four weeks (first). Hill has at least seven catches in four of his last six games and if Patrick Mahomes can calibrate his aim when Hill is getting double-digit targets, the road to seven could be a little less sweaty.

Vegas keeps the ball in front of it on defense and has allowed just 20 explosive pass plays this year. That’s fine by us, as Hill has been supplementing the Chiefs’ run game and has been getting a lot of his targets near the line of scrimmage. 

Hill has an aDot of 10.2 yards, which ranks fifth on the team, while the Chiefs are rushing at the fifth-lowest rate over the last three games. Hill is the most important person in this offense right now and getting the ball in his hands has to be a priority for the Chiefs, who have won three of their last four. The Raiders generate a ton of pressure on early downs and the Chiefs could offset the pressure by quick hits to Hill.

PICK: Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 receptions (-115 at bet365)

Goff the Record

Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions head to Heinz Field Sunday as 8.5-point underdogs and face a Pittsburgh defense that has held teams to just 217 passing yards per game since Week 7. 

Goff ranks 26th in QBR this season and has been held to Under 225 passing yards in three of his last four games. Goff has failed to top 225 passing yards four times all year including three times versus bottom-15 DVOA pass defenses. 

Teams tend to pass more against the Steelers because their run defense is so good. Justin Fields finished with 291 passing yards versus the Steelers last week but plenty of those yards came late. Baker Mayfield finished with 225 passing yards in Week 8 while Geno Smith had 209 passing yards in Week 6. 

PointsBet is laying a total of 250.5 yards for Goff, which isn’t on par with the rest of the market as other books are as low as 238.5. Detroit's QB is coming out of the bye but has topped this total just three times over his eight games, and the team's receiving situation is so bad they just claimed Josh Reynolds off waivers from the Titans. 

The Pittsburgh pass rush is a Top-3 unit in football and it generates lots of pressure without sending extra rushers, meaning more bodies for Goff to navigate in the passing game. Fading Goff should be a pastime.

PICK: Jared Goff Under 250.5 passing yards (-130 at PointsBet)

Season to date: 58-63 -5.90 units (Risking  to win 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 10 prop betting card

• Johnson Over 76.5 rushing yards (-115 at bet365)
• Dillon Over 41.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Dillon Over 8.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
• Jeudy Over 5.5 receptions (+100 at bet365)
• Schultz Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

     - - 

• Geoff Swaim Over 14.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Cordarrelle Patterson Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
• Tyreek Hill Over 6.5 receptions (-115 at bet365)
• Jared Goff Under 250.5 passing yards (-130 at PointsBet)

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