NFL Underdogs: NFL Wild Card Odds, Picks and Predictions

The Wild Card Round has been ripe for the picking when it comes to underdogs in recent years. We're targeting a pair of road dogs that aren't getting the respect they deserve in Jason Logan's Wild Card Underdogs.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan ? Senior Betting Analyst
Jan 11, 2022 ? 15:38 ET ? 5 min read

The NFL playoffs went to the dogs last year, with postseason pups posting an 8-5 against-the-spread mark – capped by Tampa Bay’s victory as a 3-point underdog in Super Bowl LV. 

In fact, going back to 2017-18, postseason point spread underdogs are 29-17 ATS overall, covering in 63% of those tournament tilts. And the Wild Card Round has been the bigger purveyor of potent playoff pups, with NFL underdogs going 15-3 ATS the past four postseasons. 

Will this trend continue or is this Wild Card run for dogs due for regression? Only one way to find out.

These are my favorite NFL Wild Card picks and predictions for those teams getting the points this weekend.

NFL Wild Card picks against the spread

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best Wild Card Round bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for the NFL Playoffs, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:

USA: Bet $5 on any team to win on the moneyline at FanDuel this weekend, win $150 (30/1 odds)! Claim Now

Canada: Bet $1, get $100 in free bets when you sign up with BetVictor! Sign Up Now

If any team knows a thing about “wild,” it’s Las Vegas. And it has nothing to do with the Sin City nightlife.

The Raiders are coming off one of the wildest games in NFL history this past Sunday night, blowing a 15-point lead with less than five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter and then keeping their shit together long enough to win in overtime – punching the final ticket to the tournament.

That’s nothing new to Las Vegas bettors, who have watched the Silver and Black battle in close contests all season. In fact, the Raiders’ current four-game winning streak has come by a combined 12 points and six of their last seven games have been decided by four points or less.

Las Vegas has leaned on a methodical offensive pace and sound defense during this winning run. The Raiders have dominated time of possession with a playbook that eats up more than 28 seconds between snaps while converting key third downs that keep the chains moving. 

Defensively, Las Vegas keeps everything in front of it and protects against the big play, snuffing out yards after the catch with sound coverage and tackling. The Raiders have been especially stingy against the pass during this winning run, allowing a 37.2% success rate per dropback to opposing passers.

It just so happens Vegas faces possibly the hottest quarterback in the NFL in the Wild Card Round, but a QB it was able to limit when the Raiders lost 32-13 to Cincinnati back in Week 11. Bengals star passer Joe Burrow finished the day 20 for 29 for only 148 yards and a touchdown in that win, failing to complete a single pass for more than 17 yards. Keeping Burrow from connecting on those home run balls is the key to the Raiders covering this Wild Card contest.

Cincinnati won the AFC North – and this home game – thanks in part of a friendly home stretch of the schedule, which took the Bengals on the road only twice in the final seven games, and one of those trips was a short hop to Cleveland in Week 18. Despite that cushy slate, Cincy found itself in some tight spots with four of its final five outings decided by five points or fewer.

This spread opened Las Vegas +6.5 - which seemed high - and has slipped below the key number to +5.5 at many books, so we’re jumping in quick and snatching up six with the wild dog from the desert.

PICK: Raiders +6 (-110)

To quote the immortal words of Beyonce, I don’t think the Dallas Cowboys are ready for that jelly. And that jelly is a nasty 49ers defense.

The Niners stop unit has been among the best in the league since catching fire back in Week 10. San Francisco sits seventh in EPA allowed per play in that span, boasting a 7-2 SU and ATS mark on the back on a defense that checked seven of those opponents to 24 points or less.

Dallas, meanwhile, deploys a misleading offensive attack that has bullied bad or beat-up opponents to inflate its production in the final two months of the schedule. When you dig a little deeper, you discover some deep-rooted issues – glaring for a team that has this many prime playmakers.

The Cowboys kept the scoreboard humming with 50-plus efforts in wins over Washington and Philadelphia but topped out at 22 points in their four other games since the start of December, needing help from the defense to add some extra tallies.

Dallas is very dependent on its defense to create takeaways, generate extra possessions, hand over excellent field position, or find the end zone. However, when those game-changing plays don’t come, this passing defense is known for getting gashed for big gains, allowing an average of 11.1 yards per completion on the year.

San Francisco’s air attack isn’t stacking up the yards but when the 49ers do throw the ball, they move the chains. The Niners passing offense is No. 5 in DVOA at Football Outsiders and leads the NFL in yards per completion (12.3). Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown 20 interceptions on the year (two in Week 18) but I expect this San Francisco playbook to respect the chaos the Cowboys can cause and keep everything neat and tidy.

This spread opened as large as 49ers +4.5 and has since slid to +3 with some books on the verge of a move to +2.5 with the field goal spread on the underdog priced as high as -125.

PICK: 49ers +3 (-110)

Last week: 2-1 ATS +1.66 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
Season: 28-26 ATS -0.07 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

Pages related to this topic

Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
seductrice.net
universo-virtual.com
buytrendz.net
thisforall.net
benchpressgains.com
qthzb.com
mindhunter9.com
dwjqp1.com
secure-signup.net
ahaayy.com
tressesindia.com
puresybian.com
krpano-chs.com
cre8workshop.com
hdkino.org
peixun021.com
qz786.com
utahperformingartscenter.org
worldqrmconference.com
shangyuwh.com
eejssdfsdfdfjsd.com
playminecraftfreeonline.com
trekvietnamtour.com
your-business-articles.com
essaywritingservice10.com
hindusamaaj.com
joggingvideo.com
wandercoups.com
wormblaster.net
tongchengchuyange0004.com
internetknowing.com
breachurch.com
peachesnginburlesque.com
dataarchitectoo.com
clientfunnelformula.com
30pps.com
cherylroll.com
ks2252.com
prowp.net
webmanicura.com
sofietsshotel.com
facetorch.com
nylawyerreview.com
apapromotions.com
shareparelli.com
goeaglepointe.com
thegreenmanpubphuket.com
karotorossian.com
publicsensor.com
taiwandefence.com
epcsur.com
southstills.com
tvtv98.com
thewellington-hotel.com
bccaipiao.com
colectoresindustrialesgs.com
shenanddcg.com
capriartfilmfestival.com
replicabreitlingsale.com
thaiamarinnewtoncorner.com
gkmcww.com
mbnkbj.com
andrewbrennandesign.com
cod54.com
luobinzhang.com
faithfirst.net
zjyc28.com
tongchengjinyeyouyue0004.com
nhuan6.com
kftz5k.com
oldgardensflowers.com
lightupthefloor.com
bahamamamas-stjohns.com
ly2818.com
905onthebay.com
fonemenu.com
notanothermovie.com
ukrainehighclassescort.com
meincmagazine.com
av-5858.com
yallerdawg.com
donkeythemovie.com
corporatehospitalitygroup.com
boboyy88.com
miteinander-lernen.com
dannayconsulting.com
officialtomsshoesoutletstore.com
forsale-amoxil-amoxicillin.net
generictadalafil-canada.net
guitarlessonseastlondon.com
lesliesrestaurants.com
mattyno9.com
nri-homeloans.com
rtgvisas-qatar.com
salbutamolventolinonline.net
sportsinjuries.info
wedsna.com
rgkntk.com
bkkmarketplace.com
zxqcwx.com
breakupprogram.com
boxcardc.com
unblockyoutubeindonesia.com
fabulousbookmark.com
beat-the.com
guatemala-sailfishing-vacations-charters.com
magie-marketing.com
kingstonliteracy.com
guitaraffinity.com
eurelookinggoodapparel.com
howtolosecheekfat.net
marioncma.org
oliviadavismusic.com
shantelcampbellrealestate.com
shopleborn13.com
topindiafree.com
v-visitors.net
djjky.com
053hh.com
originbluei.com
baucishotel.com
33kkn.com
intrinsiqresearch.com
mariaescort-kiev.com
mymaguk.com
sponsored4u.com
crimsonclass.com
bataillenavale.com
searchtile.com
ze-stribrnych-struh.com
zenithalhype.com
modalpkv.com
bouisset-lafforgue.com
useupload.com
37r.net
autoankauf-muenster.com
bantinbongda.net
bilgius.com
brabustermagazine.com
indigrow.org
miicrosofts.net
mysmiletravel.com
selinasims.com
spellcubesapp.com
usa-faction.com
hypoallergenicdogsnames.com
dailyupdatez.com
foodphotographyreviews.com
cricutcom-setup.com
chprowebdesign.com
katyrealty-kanepa.com
tasramar.com
bilgipinari.org
four-am.com
indiarepublicday.com
inquick-enbooks.com
iracmpi.com
kakaschoenen.com
lsm99flash.com
nana1255.com
ngen-niagara.com
technwzs.com
virtualonlinecasino1345.com
wallpapertop.net
casino-natali.com
iprofit-internet.com
denochemexicana.com
eventhalfkg.com
medcon-taiwan.com
life-himawari.com
myriamshomes.com
nightmarevue.com
healthandfitnesslives.com
androidnews-jp.com
allstarsru.com
bestofthebuckeyestate.com
bestofthefirststate.com
bestwireless7.com
britsmile.com
declarationintermittent.com
findhereall.com
jingyou888.com
lsm99deal.com
lsm99galaxy.com
moozatech.com
nuagh.com
patliyo.com
philomenamagikz.net
rckouba.net
saturnunipessoallda.com
tallahasseefrolics.com
thematurehardcore.net
totalenvironment-inthatquietearth.com
velislavakaymakanova.com
vermontenergetic.com
kakakpintar.com
begorgeouslady.com
1800birks4u.com
2wheelstogo.com
6strip4you.com
bigdata-world.net
emailandco.net
gacapal.com
jharpost.com
krishnaastro.com
lsm99credit.com
mascalzonicampani.com
sitemapxml.org
thecityslums.net
topagh.com
flairnetwebdesign.com
rajasthancarservices.com
bangkaeair.com
beneventocoupon.com
noternet.org
oqtive.com
smilebrightrx.com
decollage-etiquette.com
1millionbestdownloads.com
7658.info
bidbass.com
devlopworldtech.com
digitalmarketingrajkot.com
fluginfo.net
naqlafshk.com
passion-decouverte.com
playsirius.com
spacceleratorintl.com
stikyballs.com
top10way.com
yokidsyogurt.com
zszyhl.com
16firthcrescent.com
abogadolaboralistamd.com
apk2wap.com
aromacremeria.com
banparacard.com
bosmanraws.com
businessproviderblog.com
caltonosa.com
calvaryrevivalchurch.org
chastenedsoulwithabrokenheart.com
cheminotsgardcevennes.com
cooksspot.com
cqxzpt.com
deesywig.com
deltacartoonmaps.com
despixelsetdeshommes.com
duocoracaobrasileiro.com
fareshopbd.com
goodpainspills.com
hemendekor.com
kobisitecdn.com
makaigoods.com
mgs1454.com
piccadillyresidences.com
radiolaondafresca.com
rubendorf.com
searchengineimprov.com
sellmyhrvahome.com
shugahouseessentials.com
sonihullquad.com
subtractkilos.com
valeriekelmansky.com
vipasdigitalmarketing.com
voolivrerj.com
zeelonggroup.com
1015southrockhill.com
10x10b.com
111-online-casinos.com
191cb.com
3665arpentunitd.com
aitesonics.com
bag-shokunin.com
brightotech.com
communication-digitale-services.com
covoakland.org
dariaprimapack.com
freefortniteaccountss.com
gatebizglobal.com
global1entertainmentnews.com
greatytene.com
hiroshiwakita.com
iktodaypk.com
jahatsakong.com
meadowbrookgolfgroup.com
newsbharati.net
platinumstudiosdesign.com
slotxogamesplay.com
strikestaruk.com
trucosdefortnite.com
ufabetrune.com
weddedtowhitmore.com
12940brycecanyonunitb.com
1311dietrichoaks.com
2monarchtraceunit303.com
601legendhill.com
850elaine.com
adieusolasomade.com
andora-ke.com
bestslotxogames.com
cannagomcallen.com
endlesslyhot.com
iestpjva.com
ouqprint.com
pwmaplefest.com
qtylmr.com
rb88betting.com
buscadogues.com
1007macfm.com
born-wild.com
growthinvests.com
promocode-casino.com
proyectogalgoargentina.com
wbthompson-art.com
whitemountainwheels.com
7thavehvl.com
developmethis.com
funkydogbowties.com
travelodgegrandjunction.com
gao-town.com
globalmarketsuite.com
blogshippo.com
hdbka.com
proboards67.com
outletonline-michaelkors.com
kalkis-research.com
thuthuatit.net
buckcash.com
hollistercanada.com
docterror.com
asadart.com
vmayke.org
erwincomputers.com
dirimart.org
okkii.com
loteriasdecehegin.com
mountanalog.com
healingtaobritain.com
ttxmonitor.com
nwordpress.com
11bolabonanza.com