2024 NFL Mock Draft Version 4: Maye, McCarthy, Daniels Jockey After Williams Goes No. 1

We're just a few days out from the 2024 NFL Draft, and that means it’s peak smokescreen season. The means the NFL Draft Odds are going wild. Outside of Caleb Williams going to the Chicago Bears with the No. 1 pick, everything is up in the air.

It also means my final mock draft of the season is here to help make sense of the latest NFL odds. Version 4.0 cuts through the smoke and is chock full of trades and bets galore. 

Things have changed since my NFL Mock Draft Version 3.0, here’s how I have Thursday’s first round going down and the free betting picks I'm making for the 2024 NFL Draft right now.

2024 NFL Mock Draft Version 4.0

1. Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC

When I started this process, I may not have agreed with this, but after moving on from Justin Fields, the Bears are all in on Williams, and he's the -20,000 favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick.

My hesitation with Williams has always been that I’m not sure he’s the can’t-miss prospect that some are making him out to be. He is immensely talented with an elite arm, but he too often relies on that to get out of tight spots, and it can cost him.

That said, Williams’ ceiling is the highest among this group of quarterbacks. There is no value when it comes to his betting markets just a few days out from the draft.

2. Commanders: Drake Maye, QB, UNC

The market for the No. 2 pick has been wild. Maye opened as the favorite, but then that flipped to Jayden Daniels. Money on Maye over the weekend moved the odds closer before Daniels was returned to -260 after a few NFL insiders said the Commanders were leaning toward the LSU QB.

It seems like everyone is penciling in Daniels here thanks to him being a perceived better fit in Kliff Kingsbury's offense.

But I’m sticking to my guns here. I believe Maye and Williams are a tier above the rest of this QB class, and at +250, I think there is value for him to go No. 2 overall.

3. Patriots: JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan

I had the Patriots trading this pick in my last mock, and that’s still what I think they should do here, but GM Eliot Wolf has been tough to read. When it comes to moving this pick, he says the Pats are “open for business” and that there are plenty of holes to fill on this roster. But they’re also comfortable with taking a QB here as well.

So, they stun most and take McCarthy before Daniels, but McCarthy just feels like a Patriot. A QB from Michigan with an NFL arm, impressive instincts, and great intangibles.

McCarthy is +380 to be the third overall pick.

4. Vikings (mock trade via ARI): Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

It would be a little shocking if the Vikings didn’t use their two first-round picks to move up for a quarterback. They have the most ammunition to get this done with the Pats staying put and taking a QB at No. 3, the Cardinals at No. 4 is the next logical spot for them to trade up. 

Plus, they can’t afford for someone to sneak in and steal their next potential franchise QB. Which in this scenario is Daniels.

The reigning Heisman Trophy winner had a monster year at LSU both through the air and on the ground. What hurts his stock is his arm isn’t the biggest. But he makes up for that with his touch and accuracy. Pairing him with another from Bayou Bengal in Justin Jefferson would be fun.

Daniels is +1,500 to be the fourth pick.

5. Chargers: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

The narrative that Jim Harbaugh won’t take a WR here because of the way he built his teams at Michigan, or because Harrison was a Buckeye is ludicrous.

Harbaugh is very smart. He knows Harrison is a generational talent who almost single-handedly cost him the Big Ten Championship. And have you seen that Chargers WR room?

Harrison is -750 to be the first WR selected on Thursday and I am playing him at +300 to be the No. 5 pick.

6. Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

There are more and more rumors swirling that the Giants are interested in a QB despite Daniel Jones’ cumbersome contract. We just saw the Broncos eat all that dead cap money with Russell Wilson, so anything is possible.

But with the Top 4 QBs already gone in this mock, instead, they give Jones (or whoever is under center) arguably the best target the Giants have had in years.

Malik Nabers would be the No. 1 WR in many recent draft classes. The former LSU Tiger has game-changing speed, excellent hands, and breaks a ton of tackles.

Nabers is the +170 favorite to be the No. 6 pick.

7. Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

Olu Fashanu has been the top tackle on my board this entire process, and I had him going here in my last mock, but it’s getting hard to ignore the odds with Alt, who is now -600 to be the first offensive lineman drafted.

The former Irish tackle is a monster at 6-foot-8 and 320 pounds. He’s strong with great footwork and is equally effective in run and pass blocking. Alt has tested extremely well during the draft process and will be the top tackle on the board for many teams.

I still don't hate Fashanu to be the first tackle selected at (+1,400) but it's feeling like Alt will be the guy guarding Will Levis for the Titans next season.

8. Cardinals (mock trade via ATL): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

The Cardinals are all of a sudden flush with draft picks. Since they picked up a third first-round pick, they're happy to give up their second-rounder (35 overall) to move up three spots, leapfrog the Bears, and grab the last remaining Tier 1 wide receiver. 

Odunze is coming off a special season at Washington. He has great size, is an elite route runner, and arguably does a better job than anyone in this class when it comes to making contested catches. He gives Kyler Murray the type of reliable target he desperately needs.

9. Bears: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

The Bears are a little bummed to miss out on Odunze here, but not too bummed. They still have Keenan Allen and DJ Moore for Williams to throw to and they still get to add the top pass rusher on their board.

Montez Sweat needs some support, and Turner is the guy. The SEC Defensive Player of the Year finished the year with 10 sacks thanks to his elite first step and flexibility.

10. Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia

The Jets addressed some of their offensive line issues by bringing in former all-pro Tyron Smith and trading for Morgan Mosses. They also brought in Mike Williams to play alongside Garret Williams.

So New York is the ultimate win-now team and must make the most of this, um, abbreviated Aaron Rodgers window. Bowers is the most "win-now" pick the Jets can make.

He’s a tight end in name only. He can play in the slot or along the line a la Travis Kelce. Simply put, the guy just makes plays and will be an instant hit for the Jets.

The Jets are +150 to draft a tight end.

11. Falcons (mock trade via ARI): Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

The Falcons move down three spots, pick up an extra second-round pick, and still select one of the guys they were considering at No. 8 anyways.

The Falcons are reportedly doing their homework on cornerbacks, and even though Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell is the favorite to be the first corner taken, I’m betting it’s Arnold.

He's arguably the best all-round corner in this draft class, with excellent size and speed combined with a high football IQ. Also, not to hate on our beloved MAC-tion but Arnold’s tape came against the SEC.

Arnold was +185 to be the first corner selected in my last mock. That’s down to +115. But at plus money, he’s still giving us some value, and it's on my betting card for Thursday.

12. Commander (mock trade via DEN): Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State

Commanders GM Adam Peters says he's ready to make some moves. So, are you ready for a run on tackles?

The Broncos have been linked to Bo Nix, but this is too early to select the Former Duck, instead, they trade down for both of the Commanders' early second-round picks (a more appropriate landing spot for Nix) while the Commanders get a tackle to protect their new franchise QB for years to come.

Fashanu has slipped a bit during the draft process, but he’s still the top tackle on my board. He has a great frame, combined with great footwork and technique. His ceiling is the best left tackle in the NFL.

13. Raiders: Taliese Fauaga, OT, Oregon State

The Raiders could be another team in play for a quarterback. But whoever is under center in Las Vegas is going to need better offensive line play.

The former Beavers tackle has a great combination of size, power, and balance to become an excellent NFL tackle. Fuaga also has the versatility to slide inside if the Raiders need him to do so early in his career.

Offensive lineman is the favorite to be the first position selected by the Raiders at +140.

14. Saints: Troy Faunatu, OL, Washington

The Saints select an offensive lineman with their first pick feels like one of the bigger locks of the first round, and they're -400 to do so. Trevor Penning hasn’t panned out the way they had hoped. Faunatu’s versatility means he can take over at left tackle, or plug in somewhere along the line.

He has tested extremely well this offseason and was the left tackle for the best offensive line in college football this past season. Fautanu is explosive with long arms and can really move on pulls and screens.

15. Colts: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toldeo

The Colts need to improve the back end of their defense, and Mitchell is in the discussion for top cornerback in this draft class. In fact, he’s the favorite to be the first cornerback selected at most books at the moment.

Don’t let the fact that he played in the MAC fool you. Mitchell can play. He is an elite athlete who has a nose for the football with 32 passes defended and six interceptions over the last two seasons.

Mitchell has also tested through the roof. He was the top corner at the combine in the bench press and paired that with a 4.33 40-yard dash.

16. Seahawks: Laitu Latu, EDGE, UCLA

The Seahawks will likely look to improve in the trenches with this pick, and it doesn’t matter which side of the ball. With the way this mock has played out, they end up going with Latu.

Latu is coming off a dominant season with the UCLA Bruins, ranking second in the nation in pressure rate. He has an excellent first step and elite hand moves. He can be the best pass rusher in this class if he stays healthy. And, rumor has it that NFL teams are clearing him medically with the draft just days away.

17. Jaguars: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU

No wonder the LSU offense was so explosive. The Jaguars offense, on the other hand, was not. But giving Trevor Lawrence a wideout like Thomas could change that.

Thomas has elite size and is a real burner. He might be the best deep-ball threat in this class. He has easy speed and smooth acceleration, paired with reliable hands. If Lawrence can’t get things going with Thomas, it would not be a good look.

Thomas' draft position prop is on the board at 19.5, with the Under at +124. Not only is this a great landing spot for him. But several WR-needy teams in the back end of the draft could trade up for him.

18. Bengals: JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Keeping Joe Burrow upright should be priority No. 1, 2, and 3 for the Bengals, and Latham can do just that. The former Bama product is huge. He’s solid in pass protection and is a truck in the running game. His power might be unmatched in this class.

Latham spent the year at right tackle for the Crimson Tide, but he has the size and ability to anchor the line from the left side if the Bengals need him to.

19. Rams: Jared Verse, EDGE, Florida State

The Rams actually have a first-round pick for once, and they need to make the most of it, considering all the holes they need to fill on this roster, particularly after the retirement of future Hall of Famer Aaron Donald.

Luckily, they still have an interior pass rush, thanks to Kobie Turner. So, the Rams pair him with Verse, who entered the season as the projected top pass rusher. However, a bit of a slow start to his season meant some other players may have jumped him. Either way, Verse is explosive off the edge. He has excellent power, a tremendous first step, and a high motor.

20. Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia

The Steelers will need to improve their offensive line. They're going to try to employ a power run game and feature a lot of play-action with Arthur Smith as the new offensive coordinator. That makes Mims the guy here.

Mims is another gargantuan right-tackle prospect who didn’t get a ton of playing time in Athens because of injuries and the ridiculous talent depth at Georgia. But when he finally got on the field, he showed his potential. He has massive, long arms and smooth footwork.

21. Dolphins: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas

The Dolphins are another team that needs to improve in the trenches but getting an interior pass rusher might be the most pressing now that they lost Christian Wilkins to the Raiders in free agency.

Replacing Wilkins with Murphy might be the next best thing. Murphy is a dynamic and powerful pass rusher from the interior who has a knack for collapsing the pocket. He has an explosive first step and is also effective against the run.

That said, Murphy is getting a bunch of pre-draft hype, and I wouldn't be stunned if he went much higher than this.

22. Eagles: Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa

This pick is a double bonus for Howie Roseman. Not only does it fill a position of need, but it also satisfies Roseman’s urge to select the best player available.

DeJean had fallen a bit under the radar after an injury cost him much of the season. But he looked great during his most recent workouts.

A healthy DeJean is a playmaking defensive back with excellent size, speed, and physicality. He also has rare versatility. He’s best at corner but can play safety and is a threat in the return game as well. The Eagles will love deploying him all over the field.

23. Cardinals (mock trace via MIN): Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson

After the Cardinals got Kyler Murray a new toy with their Top-10 pick, they can turn their attention to defense with their second first-rounder by taking Wiggins. 

He's another defensive back who put up a blazing 40 time in Indy at 4.28. Wiggins is a tall and lean corner, with long arms, great for disrupting passes. He also has excellent coverage skills and instincts. He instantly improves this Cardinals secondary.

24. Cowboys: Graham Barton, OL, Duke

It’s really tempting to have the Cowboys select a WR here, which pays out at +900, particularly because it’s not hard seeing Jerry Jones falling in love with either of the Texas wideouts.

But to Jones’ credit, when he’s not taking flashy wideouts, in recent years, he’s been fortifying the offensive line. That’s what he does here. Barton played left tackle during his career at Duke but grades out as probably the top interior offensive lineman in this draft.

His technique is outstanding, and his versatility makes him a tantalizing prospect for the ‘Boys, who need to rebuild their once-dominant O-line, particularly now that Tyron Smith is gone.

25. Packers: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama

I’ve had the Packers taking a defensive back in each version of my mock drafts, and I won’t be changing it up here. 

The former Crimson Tide defensive back has great physical traits and does his best work in press coverage. He did not work out at the combine due to a Jones fracture in his right foot but then ran a 4.47-40 at Alabama’s pro day. Yeah, he looks like he’s ready for the draft.

The Packers to select a cornerback with their first pick is on the board at +260.

26. Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State

The Buccaneers need help both on the offensive line and at edge rusher. With most of the first-round lineman off the board here, the Bucs go with Robinson.

The former Penn State edge rusher might have the quickest first step in this class and has a super high motor. And even though his production may not be what he wanted last season, his traits have many thinking that production could come at the pro level.

27. Cardinals: Darius Robinson, EDGE, Missouri

Some draft analysts are saying the Cardinals may not trade back with their first pick on Thursday night because they already have a solid stockpile of picks.

But have you seen this roster? They need as many quality picks as they can get and by taking Robison with their third first-rounder, they can walk away with a really good player at all three of their biggest needs.

The Mizzou standout is a big, physical edge rusher who played all across the line for the Tigers and plays with a high level of intensity.

28. Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas

With Stefon Diggs now a member of the Texans, the Bills desperately need to get Josh Allen some reliable pass catchers. Well, look no further than the former Longhorn.

Mitchell has deceptive speed and proved it with a 4.35 40-yard dash at the combine. He mixes that speed with excellent hands and does a great job of high-pointing the football. With the way he is testing combined with his game film, Mitchell could go higher than this.

Wide receiver is the big -240 favorite to be the first position selected by the Bills.

29. Lions: Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri

The Lions have done an excellent job this offseason addressing the biggest holes on this roster, setting themselves to take the best player available, to them, on draft day. While they brought in some corners, a long-term solution is needed.

Rakestraw Jr. is a physical and high-energy corner out of Missouri. He has excellent speed and can play both out and on the edge. And he loves to tackle. Basically, he’s how Dan Campbell would design a corner.

There is value in Rakestraw to be a first-round pick at +430. This also would take us Over 5.5 corners in the first round, which is sitting at +290.

30. Ravens: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma

It’s been a tough offseason for the Ravens, who are dealing with losses all over the roster with none greater than those on the offensive line. Baltimore is -190 to select an O-lineman at this spot and would be thrilled to see Guyton here.

Guyton is another player who has tested well. He has a great frame and has stunning quickness and balance for a player his size. His only knock is his lack of experience with just 15 career starts in college.

31. 49ers: Jordan Morgan, OT, Arizona

The 49ers have a surprising amount of needs for a team that was just in the Super Bowl. But that’s mostly due to the cap. They could look at edge, offensive line, and even wide receiver if they end up trading Deebo Samuel or Brandon Aiyuk.

I like them to go with Morgan here. He's coming off a great career at Arizona as the team's left tackle, but he’s capable of playing on the right side, which is where the Niners would need him. Morgan also has good footwork and strong hands. He’s also an excellent run blocker. Something the Niners love.

32. Chiefs: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia

It’s incredible to think what Patrick Mahomes was able to do with a sub-par receiver room. Well, the Chiefs are trying to remedy that heading into this season.

Many have Xavier Worthy mocked here after posting his blazing 40-time at the combine, but KC signed Hollywood Brown to take that role. But this group needs another reliable, intermediate type. That’s Georgia’s McConkey. His combination of quickness and excellent route running means he’s open a lot, which he backs up with great hands.

The Chiefs taking wide receiver here would take us over the position total of 6.5. Which you can get at +220.

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