Mavericks vs Timberwolves Prop Picks and Best Bets: Hardaway's Reappearing Act

Prop bet #1: Tim Hardaway Jr. Over 3.5 points

If I had told you back in November that Tim Hardaway Jr.'s points prop was trading at -105 for Over 3.5, you wouldn't have been able to hit the button fast enough. It's amazing how his role has changed, but as he continues to be faded by Jason Kidd, he is now being priced like someone who won't see many minutes, and I think we can take advantage of this.

In Game 1, Jaden Hardy was first off the bench, and Hardaway only played 10 minutes. Not ideal when we're betting on the Over for Hardaway, but the trick is we only need 12 minutes of action from him to establish a nice edge on the Over 3.5 points (-105), and I think this is very achievable in this series. Even in the series against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Hardaway played 12 or more minutes in five of the six games.

The concern with Hardaway is his defense, but against these Timberwolves, it's much easier to hide him. If the Mavericks were playing the Celtics, it would be a different story, as they could target him all game due to their perimeter talent. The Timberwolves, on the other hand, have Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards, who create offense, with a bunch of catch-and-shoot threats. This situation favors Hardaway's minutes because Kidd can play him more for his offensive contributions without worrying as much about his defense.

Another reason I like Hardaway on Friday is that the Timberwolves mostly played drop coverage against Luka Doncic, and Stan Van Gundy was calling for them to blitz. If the Timberwolves change their coverage and send more blitzes, it will put more pressure on the Mavericks' shooters, and Hardaway is someone they will want in the game to counter this.

Hardaway is projected to score 4.8 points on Friday against the Timberwolves, which means we can price the Over 3.5 points at -148, but it is available at bet365 at -105.

Tim Hardaway Jr. prop: Over 3.5 points (-105 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Jaden McDaniels Oer1.5 assists

Jaden McDaniels had a big Game 1, scoring 24 points against the Mavericks, but don't forget about his assists prop. McDaniels had three assists, which doesn't seem like a lot, but for someone trading at plus money with a total of 1.5, that's a significant number, and it could have been much higher.

In this series, McDaniels is consistently going to be the beneficiary of having Doncic as his primary defender. There's just no way around it for the Mavericks; Doncic has to guard McDaniels unless they opt to put him on Karl-Anthony Towns, which is extremely unlikely.

With Doncic as his primary defender, McDaniels will be open quite a bit because Doncic isn't the quickest defender when it comes to closing out on a rotation. This leaves McDaniels in a position where he can take a three-pointer or put the ball on the floor against a rotating defense and create an even better shot for one of his teammates. The Timberwolves are also working McDaniels into some actions because they want Doncic to work on defense. The last thing they want is Doncic resting on defense and putting all his energy into his offense, which is Doncic's main goal every game.

In Game 1, McDaniels had three assists but didn't even convert his potential assists at a high rate. McDaniels had eight potential assists, which is a significant number for him. I've bet on his assists props throughout the regular season, and that is an eye-catching number for him. It wasn't a fluke that McDaniels went Over the total in Game 1; if anything, he should have gone way Over but only finished with three assists.

There isn't much the Mavericks can change to slow down these potential assists for McDaniels. Doncic as his primary defender is just something they have to live with, and it's why I'm betting on this number.

McDaniels is projected to have 1.8 assists on Friday against the Mavericks, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -111, but it is available at bet365 at +125.

Jaden McDaniels prop: Over 1.5 assists (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Daniel Gafford Over 0.5 assists

Daniel Gafford Over 0.5 assists (-135) might feel like a completely random prop, but this is a direct result of how I expect the Timberwolves to guard Doncic on Friday. There are several basketball reasons why I like this bet, and Gafford going Under his assists prop in three of his last four games has opened the door to a bet here because the juice on the Over 0.5 assists has fallen to -135.

I mentioned in the breakdown for Hardaway that Stan Van Gundy was pleading on the broadcast for the Timberwolves to blitz Doncic instead of playing drop coverage. With the Timberwolves in a drop, Gafford finds himself as a lob threat waiting for an alley-oop if Doncic doesn't take the mid-range jumper. However, if the Timberwolves switch to a blitz, it creates a much different role for Gafford.

If the Timberwolves begin to blitz, Doncic will be looking to hit Gafford with a pass immediately or with a pocket pass. This puts the ball in Gafford's hands in the middle of the floor, surrounded by shooters against a defense in scramble mode. This should lead to potential assists for Gafford, especially since he isn't a stop-and-pop big man. For Gafford, it’s dunks, layups, or making a pass, which is why this coverage could open up potential assists for him.

With the juice dropping down to -135, we only need 19 minutes from Gafford to establish our edge on this number. This feels very secure because Gafford and Dereck Lively are just splitting minutes on the court, so even if Kidd opts for more Lively than Gafford, Lively would need to play 30+ minutes for us to lose our edge. There's also no scenario where one of them isn't on the court because of the size of the Timberwolves. It's not like the Boston Celtics, who could randomly go small against the Indiana Pacers.

Gafford is projected to have 1.2 assists on Friday against the Timberwolves, which allows us to price the Over 0.5 assists at -203, but it is available at bet365 at -135.

Daniel Gafford prop: Over 0.5 assists (-135 at bet365)