Celtics vs Pacers Prop Picks and Best Bets: Minutes Impacting Closeout Game Production

Prop bet #1: T.J. McConnell Under 14.5 points

Tyrese Haliburton is tagged as questionable with a hamstring injury ahead of Game 4. While I don't think he'll play, you only stand to gain from any news regarding Haliburton's status with this Under bet on T.J. McConnell. With his scoring prop trading at 14.5, he's being priced as if Haliburton isn't playing. This number will move if Haliburton is good to go.

He dropped 23 points in Game 3 without Haliburton, which makes hitting the Under on 14.5 a bit nerve-racking. Even if Haliburton doesn't play, I think this number is too high for McConnell. 

McConnell is incredibly efficient in short spurts, but as his minutes increase, you don't necessarily see his production per minute stay as high. He played 29 minutes in Game 3, and it was a perfect storm for him to see as many minutes as Rick Carlisle would be willing to give him. The Pacers were winning for most of the game and he wasn't in any foul trouble.

When evaluating this prop, I increased McConnell's minutes to 30, and we still have a nice edge on the Under 14.5 points (-115) at FanDuel. I'm hard-pressed to believe he'll even see 30 minutes because he only reached 29 in Game 3 under ideal circumstances. 

He puts his body on the line and plays with maximum effort. He's now coming off a Game 3 with elevated minutes and has to play the Celtics again with just one day of rest. Carlisle showed us in Game 2 that when the game was a blowout, McConnell wasn’t going to be on the floor. With the Celtics favored by eight points, the Pacers facing elimination, and a potential vacation to Cancun looming, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his minutes reduced.

The key to this bet, though, is that we don't need reduced minutes for our edge; we have a massive edge even if he plays 30 minutes. McConnell is projected to score 12.5 points on Monday, which justifies pricing the Under 14.5 points at -202. However, it's available at FanDuel at -115.

T.J. McConnell prop: Under 14.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Al Horford Over 1.5 assists

Al Horford has gone Under his assist total in all three games in this series and he only has one assist overall. That's about the last thing you'd want to read when I'm suggesting to lay some increased juice on Horford on Monday to go Over the total of 1.5 assists, but let me explain why.

For starters, his total has been adjusting with every Under. When the series started, Horford was trading with a total of 2.5, and we're now at 1.5 with increased juice. The move from 2.5 to 1.5 doesn't seem like a big deal, but when the number is already so low on an assist prop, this is a massive shift in probability.

In reality, Horford's just been incredibly unlucky when it comes to his potential assists converting. He has 13 potential assists in this series, and that's only converted into one actual assist. That is not normal and water will eventually find its level. With the total dropping from 2.5 to 1.5 (-145), I'm willing to bet on that occurring tonight.

Not only is it unusual for these potential assists to not convert, but there are also basketball reasons to believe Horford could be in line for even more potential assists. He made seven 3-pointers in Game 3 and Indiana's defense will have to adjust and contest more of his shots. If the defense is more aware of where Horford is from beyond the arc, it should lead to more swing passes by Horford and potential assists.

He's projected to have 2.3 assists on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 1.5 assists at -191, but it's available at bet365 at -145.

Al Horford prop: Over 1.5 assists (-145 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Sam Hauser Over 3.5 points

This has to be one of the funnier prop pick articles I've written because if you look through the box scores of this series, there's no way you'd want to place any of these bets. However, I love all of them. I'm going with Sam Hauser Over 3.5 points (-115). Hauser has scored a grand total of 2 points in this series, but let's be serious — he's not going to miss every 3-pointer he takes for the rest of his career.

When Adam Scherer and I were doing the NBA release show here at Covers last Thursday, we discussed the possibility of Joe Mazzulla going with a smaller lineup against the Pacers and Hauser potentially seeing increased minutes. We never placed the bet, but Mazzulla did end up giving Hauser 20 minutes of playing time.

Unfortunately, he went Under his total of 3.5 points, scoring only two points. I thought Hauser going Under 3.5 points would open the door to a bet in Game 3, but that wasn't the case as he opened at 5.5. After back-to-back Unders, this total is back to 3.5 (-115), and at these odds, I'm hitting the button.

Here's why I like this bet: we only need 13 minutes from Hauser to establish a healthy probability gap in the odds. He saw 13 minutes in Game 3, a game in which the Celtics were losing, staged a comeback, and eventually stole the game in the final minute. This game script isn't ideal for someone like Hauser, yet he still managed to see the amount of minutes we need to establish an edge.

If Monday's game is close, I think we have an edge on Hauser, but if the Pacers go 1-2-3 Cancun without Haliburton, our edge will only grow as Hauser should see elevated minutes in a blowout. If the Pacers are down by double digits, they'll also increase the pace and their defense will soften up, which will really help a player like Hauser.

He's projected to score 5.3 points on Monday, which allows us to price the Over 3.5 points at -193.

Sam Hauser prop: Over 3.5 points (-115 at bet365)