Like all good things, the less people know about them the better. Pizza places, beaches, and promising starting pitchers can be amazing if they stay under the radar. But once word gets out, good luck getting a hot slice, a spot near the parking lot, or great MLB moneyline odds.
With baseball season tossing out its first pitches next week, we look at one of the most important aspects of early MLB season success, identifying potential breakout pitchers.
Every year, an unknown arm jumps out to a strong start to the season and racks up the units. At least until the public catches on, and oddsmakers start charging your first born just to bet them. Just look at American League Cy Young Winner Corey Kluber.
Cleveland’s right hander came out of nowhere with a 2.44 ERA and 18 wins in 2014 and was outstanding in the second half of the season with a 1.73 ERA and 9-3 record. But with each standout performance, the price tag on Kluber’s starts rose and eventually bettors were paying as high as -225 to play the Tribe with their newfound ace on the mound.
So who is going to be this year’s breakout starter? Here are some things to keep an eye on as you prepare for the upcoming MLB season:
Age/Stamina
Pitchers peak when they hit the perfect intersection of age and experience. Unlike hitters, who tend to hit their stride between 26 and 27 years of age, pitchers take a little longer to mature, like the big stinky cheese they’re serving up each trip to the mound.
That age coupled with years in the show lays the ground work for a breakout pitcher. Finding a starter with two or three years of solid big league experience under his belt is key, as is locating guys who can eat up the innings.
There’s no value betting on a guy who only lasts five innings each time out (unless you’re betting 5-inning lines) and turns things over to the bullpen. A good breakout pitcher handles his business with little help from relievers to close out a game.
According to Doc’s Sports, another aspect of a breakout pitcher is one that is continuing to develop their game. They like to find starters adding different pitchers to their arsenal and the confidence boost it can give them on the mound.
Stats/Spring work
When it comes to finding hidden value with MLB pitchers, you’ve got to look past ERA. According to Steve Merril, WHIP (walks+hits per innings pitched) and strikeouts per nine innings are much more telling figures of a pitcher’s potential.
Baseball bettors should be conscious of the amount of base runners a pitcher normally allows, since base runners equal runs and runs kill a bet, and Ks/9 innings proves that the starter can limit base runners on his own, and eliminates any inflating factors like poor defense and field errors from their stats.
Another often-dismissed angle is looking at how pitchers performed in Spring Training. While veterans and established starters don’t pay much mind to their Cactus and Grapefruit league stats, pitchers on the cusp of a breakout can give glimpses into the upcoming season.
Ben Burns says he often travels to Arizona and Florida to do some preseason scouting and watches some of the mid-level starters for signs of progress. He recalls San Francisco ace Madison Bumgarner last spring and how he dominated hitters, a precursor for his 18 wins, dominating postseason, and World Series MVP award
“After winning a modest 13 games in 2013, not many might have expected Madison Bumgarner to win 18 games in 2014 and for him to follow it up with one of the best postseason performances of all-time,” says Burns. “However, a 3-0 exhibition record to go along with a 1.19 ERA (0.75 WHIP) could have potentially provided an early clue.”
How they ended last season
Perhaps the most important step in identifying value pitchers before the start of the new season is to see which ones finished strong in the last one.
Often times, young pitchers come into their own midway through the year – see Kluber – and ride that momentum into the new schedule. Or, often times injuries can hamper a performance through the first few months of the season, with the pitcher finally playing up to their potential when healthy.
Matt Fargo singles out Baltimore starter Bud Norris as an example of a pitcher finding his form. Norris was traded from Houston to the Orioles midway through the 2013 schedule and struggled in the hard-hitting American League East. Those issues continued into the first half of 2014 before the righty settled in, going 8-2 with a 3.27 ERA after the All-Star break.
“The Orioles won eight of his 13 starts as an underdog and 20 of 30 overall and he finished as the fifth-most profitable starter,” notes Fargo.
Who are this year’s breakout starters?
OK, the moment you’ve all be waiting for. If you’ve made it this far into the article you deserve a little somethin’, somethin’. Here are some potential breakout pitchers for the 2015 MLB season, according to our experts.
Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals: “He had a great season in 2013 with a 3.06 ERA while going 15-9 for the Cardinals. Because of that, he was favored more often than not in 2014 but struggled with his curveball and posted a 4.29 ERA through 19 starts. He then regained his form and finished strong with a 2.92 ERA in his last 12 starts. He is now with Atlanta, a team with question marks, so he should be given some value early on especially with St. Louis going just 16-17 in his 2014 starts and dropping 3.5 units in the process. The fact that he has had a good spring can generate some confidence as well.” – Matt Fargo
Kendall Graveman, Oakland A’s: “One name you may not have heard of but may want to pay attention to is Kendall Graveman, a pitcher that Billy Beane picked up in the Josh Donaldson deal. Thanks to an outstanding spring training, Graveman is currently penciled into the No. 4 spot in the Oakland A's starting rotation. Oakland manager Bob Melvin had this to say of Graveman's effort in the spring: ‘He started out good and he got better.’ Through his first five spring starts, Graveman is 3-0 with a 0.46 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. He's only given up a single run in 21-plus innings.” – Ben Burns
Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians: “One of the hardest throwers in the bigs, his ERA was a full 2 runs per game better after the All-Star break with a dominating 86-to-14 strikeout to walk ratio. With the birth of his first child this spring, look for a breakout year from Carrcasco this season.” –Marc Lawrence.
