It seems like the only thing that can stop Scottie Scheffler these days is law enforcement, and golf bettors are wagering accordingly.
Bet after bet has been placed this week on Scheffler to win the 124th U.S. Open, which would be his second victory in a row and sixth this year, as well as the third major title in his career.
Surely then a Scheffler win would deal a substantial financial blow to legal sportsbooks, right? Well, not so fast.
The best putter statistically on the PGA Tour is…..
— Covers (@Covers) June 11, 2024
Scottie Scheffler. He’s +280 to win the U.S. Open ???? https://t.co/kWWyb5AA8r
BetMGM reported Monday afternoon that Scheffler, the 2024 Masters champion, was their largest liability to win this week's U.S. Open.
Scheffler accounted for 22.3% of tickets and 45.8% of handle in the outright market, with his U.S. Open odds down to +333 at the online sportsbook. Former U.S. Open champion Bryson DeChambeau was second by handle with 9.2%, and tickets, with 9%.
DraftKings reported similar splits for the third major of 2024. Scheffler accounted for 34% of bets and 38% of money to win the tourney as of Monday morning, with his odds at the Boston-based bookmaker down to +300. DeChambeau (whose odds had sunk to +1800) also generated the second-most handle in the outright market at DraftKings at 10% of all wagering on this week’s winner, well short of Scheffler territory.
The above shows that Scheffler is a significant liability, but that the bets placed on him to win again fall short of 50% of the money wagered on outrights. In other words, another major for Scottie would prompt a lot of payouts, but his shorter odds and the amount of money staked on his competition would at the very least offset that financial hit somewhat.
And Scheffler is going up against some notable rivals whose odds are longer and perhaps more attractive to bettors. Someone tuning in for this week’s major may see someone like multiple major champion Brooks Koepka at +2000, or even Tiger Woods at +30000, and decide to sprinkle there instead of making a heftier wager on Scheffler at +300 or shorter.
Those sprinkles can add up. At DraftKings, for instance, Scheffler's share of outright handle for the U.S. Open had already shrunk a bit by Tuesday morning to 37%.
“With his odds so low, you end up seeing odds really high on these other golfers,” said Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk management at SuperBook Sports, in an interview with Covers on Monday. “So as Scottie keeps getting shorter, and we keep bumping everybody else up, there gets to a point that people are enticed by odds that they're not familiar with.”
What's a guy got to do to get some longer odds?
Scheffler's odds were +450 at SuperBook to win the U.S. Open before his victory last weekend at the Memorial. They then settled in at +325 as of Monday afternoon at the Las Vegas-based shop. Those relatively short odds for a golf tournament are helping to keep SuperBook’s exposure to Scheffler in a good spot, Sherman said.
“As you're writing on everybody else, it just doesn't overwhelm the pool as if it was No. 1 in ticket count or money on a 20/1 golfer, then we definitely would have liability,” he noted.
Sherman's plan for this week is to keep Scheffler in and around that +300 range but then to start inflating the odds of his competition if they are not seeing enough action. If other golfers start drawing enough handle, that might prompt a move to as high as +350 for Scheffler's odds, but any more than that and there could be a flood of Scottie money into the market.
Scheffler's odds to win the upcoming British Open, for instance, are +450 at SuperBook, Sherman said. Anything higher than +500 would likely attract strong interest and some larger wagers, but it may take some truly terrible play to get there.
"It would take a string of poor performances to really get his odds accelerating away from where he's at right now, just because his body of work this year has been so good," Sherman said.
Tiger-sized liability
As of Monday, SuperBook was also seeing interest from bettors in Koepka, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg to win the U.S. Open, Sherman said.
“And, believe it or not, right now our largest liability is on Tiger,” he added. “But that was due to an early bet in February, which is $1000 on him at 150/1, but now he's 500/1 (to win).”
Still, Sherman said there are a lot of golfers who can’t be ruled out of winning this week. He noted Morikawa and 2024 PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele have been “right there” with Scheffler recently, and the venue for this week’s U.S. Open, Pinehurst No. 2 in North Carolina, could trip up any golfer on any given hole.
Even so, some bettors could see another Scottie win as inevitable.
“With such short odds, we don't have liability on (Scheffler), so we’re in a good position,” Sherman said “But that's who everyone's involved with and for good reason. You’re getting over three-to-one odds and the rate that he's winning these tournaments feels like it's less difficult than trying to pick a winner on a basketball game.”
