Sports betting and iGaming generate an alarming amount of news.
Not a day goes by without a massive bet being placed, a regulator voicing qualms, a lawmaker looking to tinker, and so on and so on. It can be hard to keep track of it all and to highlight what is truly important.
Thankfully, the gambling industry has exceptional analysts, journalists, and thinkers who are up to the task. They spend their days sifting through the endless stream of hearings, meetings, press releases, and scuttlebutt to find gold for their audience.
With that in mind, we at Covers thought it made sense to provide some reflections and predictions about the gambling industry for the year that was and the year ahead. We also asked the proprietors of two widely-read industry newsletters to lend us their thoughts, and they generously obliged. Their responses (and ours) are below.
Taking part in our roundtable are:
- Steve Ruddock, gambling industry analyst and the author of the Straight to the Point newsletter
- Steve McAllister, editor-in-chief of Gaming News Canada and host of the Gaming News Canada Show
- Ryan Butler, senior news analyst for Covers
- Geoff Zochodne, senior news analyst for Covers
What was the most important story for the legal gambling industry in 2024?
Steve Ruddock: Without question, it was the authorization (at least for now) of election betting, a white whale of sorts in the U.S., that no one would have thought would be available 18 months ago. It also opens the door for new competition in the sports betting space, with the likes of Robinhood now signaling interest in sports betting.
Steve McAllister: The scrutiny and criticism the North American industry has come under from politicians, mental health advocacy groups, and traditional media. The passing of the National Framework on Advertising for Sports Betting Act in the Canadian Senate, and an end-of-year hearing on America’s High-Stakes Bet on Legalized Sports Gambling by the U.S. Senate Committee on the Judiciary — along with coverage by high-profile media outlets on problem gambling and a perceived deluge of gambling ads — aren’t the types of attention you’re seeking.
Ryan Butler: The election — and election betting. Like seemingly every other industry (and component of society) the 2024 U.S. presidential election dominated this year’s headlines. Donald Trump’s return to the White House will shape the gaming industry (many stakeholders believe for the better). The lead-up to the election itself was also a major story. Election betting markets became a significant and ultimately accurate bellwether of the national political environment. The regulatory questions about their legality were a major story in themselves. Now, election betting could become a more closely followed (and scrutinized) form of “gambling,”, especially after bettors pouring money on Trump shifted odds drastically in his favor and proved to be far more accurate than national polls.
The Massachusetts Gaming Commission will meet this morning and receive an update on its work on sports bettor limiting.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) November 21, 2024
Commission staff outlined some "recommended next steps" in a memo to commissioners, starting with data collection, then analysis, then potential regulations. pic.twitter.com/5ZF7j6p8Ip
Geoff Zochodne: The Massachusetts Gaming Commission’s work on sports bettor limiting. The entire gambling industry is built on the premise that you, the bettor, can actually win. If that isn’t true, why would people gamble at all? The MGC is asking for data that could put this entire issue to rest — or perhaps prompt regulatory changes that go beyond advertising, betting markets, and licensure requirements. Either way, I see it as an existential effort.
What was the biggest surprise for you this past year?
Steve Ruddock: The tax rate increases in Ohio and Illinois (and several other states considering following in their footsteps), and the surcharge response by DraftKings. I fear the proposal and the subsequent quick withdrawal of the plan will only embolden more states to consider raising taxes, particularly if online casino legalization remains out of reach.
Steve McAllister: When Ontario’s regulated sports betting and iGaming market opened in April 2022, there was plenty of speculation about how long it would take before consolidation occurred among operators. We’re still waiting, as iGaming Ontario reported in October 51 operators (and OLG) are doing business in what continues to be the largest legal gaming jurisdiction on the planet.
News from @iGamingOntario this Tuesday a.m. that Martha Otton will put off her retirement until the end of March while the organization finds her successor.https://t.co/tIxFdiExf5
— Gaming News Canada (@GamingNewsCA) December 17, 2024
Ryan Butler: Missouri sports betting election results. It wasn’t surprising Missouri voters approved mobile and retail sportsbooks. It was the margin in which they did so. The measure passed by roughly 3,000 votes out of three million cast. Had Caesars continued pushing against the measure — or had bad weather or traffic or any other obstacle kept a few thousand Kansas City-area voters from their polling places on Election Day — sports betting would have likely remained illegal in the Show Me State. The support from Kansas City was a critical footnote to legalization. While support in the St. Louis metro was more tepid, the Kansas City area jurisdictions' strong backing was enough to overcome opposition in nearly every other Missouri county outside the two major metro areas.
Geoff Zochodne: The DK surcharge plan. We’ve heard from operators they would have to make adjustments in response to tax hikes, such as fewer free bets or worse odds. This was something different, designed to alert and irritate bettors about the tax rate DraftKings has to pay itself. What was less surprising was no one else followed DraftKings with the measure and the company backed down once it stood alone.
What is a story that flew under the radar and/or you think deserves more coverage?
Steve Ruddock: Sports betting operators skipping the Massachusetts Gaming Commission’s scheduled roundtable discussion on limiting sports bettors. It received a lot of attention at the time but was quickly forgotten. It may seem like water under the bridge after operators accepted the MGC’s mulligan offer, but I firmly believe that decision will have long-lasting ramifications.
Steve McAllister: Matthew Holt’s departure as CEO of IC360. Some media outlets reported in October Holt was no longer in charge at IC360 and left the company sometime in the summer. Given the profile both Holt and IC360 had in the industry — it seemed the company put out news releases on a weekly basis since we started covering the industry in 2021 — and its merger with OddsOnCompliance, his departure and the cone of silence around it is curious.
Ryan Butler: The continued growth — and importance — of online casinos. New Jersey, the East Coast epicenter of legal gambling, saw online casino gaming revenues eclipse that of the state’s nine brick-and-mortar properties. The pandemic and natural demographic shifts have continued growing online gaming. For gambling companies, there remain only four competitive iGaming markets. These massive revenue generators are critical to the industry’s long-term financial success, a reality they had acknowledged for years but has become even more apparent with its continued growth in the wake of in-person gaming’s decline. The sports betting boom has been massive. The potential of online casinos is far greater.
Geoff Zochodne: Missouri voting for sports betting this year was widely covered, and happened after years of stalemate in the state legislature. However, the failure of the legislature to act more or less allowed private interests to go around lawmakers and put legislation of their choosing to voters. That created a take-it-or-leave-it situation for voters, wherein if they wanted any legal sports betting they had to accept what was before them. Was the model that was approved — only two "untethered" mobile wagering licenses, a 10% tax rate, etc. — the best one for Missouri? I don’t know, but I feel that the industry setting the terms of legalization is a phenomenon deserving of more consideration.
What do you think will be the most important story in 2025?
Steve Ruddock: The SAFE Bet Act. The possibility of the federal government intervening increases with every scrap of negative attention heaped on the industry, and there has been a lot to choose from of late.
Sen Durbin asking each witness if they support the SAFE Bet Act:
— Steve Ruddock (@SteveRuddock) December 17, 2024
- Baker: We support the parts we are familiar with
- Bademosi: Not familiar with all details but would support in some respects
- Whyte: Neutral on bill but a lot of things they like
- Rebuck: Not a good…
Steve McAllister: Does regulated gambling expand in both the U.S. and Canada, specifically the opening of a legal, competitive marketplace in Alberta, and online gaming becoming legal in New York and/or any other U.S. states?
Ryan Butler: The future of social and sweeps casinos. No other story will come close. After bubbling below the surface for years as the industry focused on legalizing real-money online sports betting, these offerings have grown into a multibillion-dollar industry — one that the regulated gaming providers will be looking to thwart. For gaming stakeholders, the 2025 legislative sessions will be a significant political opportunity to educate lawmakers about these games with the hopes that within the coming months (or years) these games will have to go through the same regulatory hurdles the real-money industry already has to go through. Like the daily fantasy sports battles a decade ago, handling these games will be major discussion points in 2025 (and likely beyond).
After extensive research on sweeps casino, the American Gaming Association's Tres York said during today's NCLGS conference that "every third post" on his Facebook feed is an unregulated sweeps and social casino ad; he said these entities promote themselves as legal offerings
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) December 13, 2024
Geoff Zochodne: Texas. It’s too big a prize, and 2025 will be a good bellwether for how the legislative landscape has shifted now that the Adelson family has a controlling stake in the Dallas Mavericks.
Next state to legalize: California, Texas, or other?
Steve Ruddock: California. I believe the current fight over the presence of sweepstakes operators in the state has accelerated the legalization timeline for mobile betting from 2028 to 2026.
Steve McAllister: Minnesota
Ryan Butler: Minnesota. Stakeholders say a tentative deal is already in place, putting it politically light years ahead of California, Texas, and the other handful of states with any plausible sports betting legalization chance. Minnesota sports betting proponents will have to navigate a divided legislature as well as the state’s gaming tribes, horse tracks, and charitable gaming proprietors. Still, it appears there may be a path forward after a previous push fell just short in 2024. Even if Minnesota can’t pass sports betting this year, there’s no chance either of the nation’s two most populated states pass sports betting in 2025. Both would require voter referendums in 2026, meaning even if a deal was reached on Jan. 1, 2025 (which is for many reasons a political impossibility) there’s no chance for betting to begin until 2027. Minnesota may not come easily, but it's in far better shape to be the 40th state with legal sportsbooks than any other contender.
Geoff Zochodne: Georgia (but Mississippi will pass an online sports betting bill first).
