2024 brought record-setting national sportsbook revenues, the launch of multiple legal new sports betting states, and more emphasis than ever on new digital forms of betting. The past year also saw several high-profile athlete-related betting scandals, new (and rescinded) sports betting taxes, and additional questions about the industry’s future.
Our staff predicts the most important stories for 2025, including the good, the bad, and everything in between.
Kansas City metro becomes the nation’s new sports betting hotspot
Kansas City voters were the biggest supporters of Missouri’s 2024 sports betting ballot measure. While St. Louis area jurisdictions barely supported the measure to permit legal sportsbooks, and most of the rest of the state opposed it, some Kansas City counties saw nearly 2-to-1 backing. This will translate to heavy betting activity from the City of Fountains when the first mobile sportsbooks go live in 2025.
Green counties supported sports betting, red counties opposed; all supporting counties were in the greater KC or St. Louis metros and/or bordered a state with legal sports betting; the exception is Boone (stand-alone green county in the middle) home to the University of Missouri pic.twitter.com/cdlztJaSFh
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) November 21, 2024
The proximity to Kansas (plus the unexpected rise of the Kansas City Royals and continued success of the Kansas City Chiefs) have made the Kansas City metro a betting hotspot. With legal betting options now coming to Missouri, bettors in the Show Me State’s biggest city will have a chance to wager from home. This means plenty of additional bets — especially from Arrowhead Stadium. (Ryan Butler)
California sports betting takes big step forward
The nation’s largest potential sports betting market won’t launch until 2027 in a best-case scenario. 2025 will help California get closer to that goal.
The costly failed 2022 sports betting push by most of the country’s largest commercial sportsbooks made it clear the state’s gaming tribes, which spent of millions of dollars defeating the measure, control future sports betting expansions. The tribes are taking a deliberate approach to expansion, but they will at least lay out a framework in 2025.
Such a structure remains to be seen. It could include a staggered approach to sports betting, with retail first and online in the near (or distant) future. It may or may not include the national operators — and, if it does, it will only include them as subsidiaries, not equal partners.
Regardless of the form, the national gaming industry will have a better picture in 2025 of the tribes’ sports betting position. California, and its roughly 40 million residents, present a market that will draw every sports betting stakeholder’s attention, no matter what form the plan takes. (Ryan Butler)
Minnesota approves sports betting
After coming close in 2024, Minnesota will finally get sports betting across the finish line.
The political environment may seem to be more difficult than ever, with the Democratic-affiliated party holding a one-seat lead in the Senate and the two major parties set for tied control in the House. There are still divides between sports betting stakeholders, including gaming tribes, horse tracks, and charitable gaming organizations.
"I'm hopeful" Minnesota sports betting is approved next year with a tribal-approved framework, Andy Platto, Executive Director of the Minnesota Indian Gaming Association, said during today's G2E conference
— Ryan Butler (@ButlerBets) October 8, 2024
But the politicians and would-be sports betting operators have been publicly optimistic all sides can reach a deal. Sports-mad Minnesota has bipartisan support for regulated gaming; the only stumbling block has been which side gets what component.
If the final pieces of the puzzle fall in place, expect Minnesota to become the 40th state to legalize sports betting, and likely the first to do so in 2025. (Ryan Butler)
Texas, Oklahoma remain sports betting deserts
The states on both sides of the Red River will remain without sportsbooks in 2025 — and probably several years to follow.
Texas, the nation’s second-largest state by population, is going to be a focal point of gaming industry lobbying efforts in 2025 as sportsbook and casino companies are set to flock to Austin in hopes they can break the state’s decades of gambling opposition. They will come home empty-handed.
Republican leaders in the GOP-dominated Senate have said they will not touch the issue unless they have majority support from their caucus. That seems a difficult political task, especially after they expanded their ranks in the 2024 elections.
In Oklahoma, which has more tribal casinos per person than any state, sportsbooks are not on the agenda as Indian Country awaits the end of Gov. Kevin Stitt’s administration. Stitt has alienated the tribes in part through his efforts to bring sports betting to the state. Oklahoma tribes are more than content to wait until he leaves office and try again with a new deal on their terms in 2027. (Ryan Butler)
Another dramatic attempt to legalize sports betting in Georgia
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. And those who learn from history, well, they might be doomed to repeat it, too.
I refer, of course, to the attempts to legalize sports betting in Georgia. Another attempt will be made in 2025, and it will take until the last possible second before its fate is settled.
Well, it's over: the Georgia House of Representatives is about to adjourn Sine Die, and without passing any sports betting-related legislation first. In other words, Georgia will NOT legalize sports betting this year.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) March 29, 2024
Such was the case in previous years, including this past one, when the legislature adjourned in the wee hours of the morning despite sports betting legislation still pending.
There’s no reason to think next year’s attempt will be any less dramatic. (Geoff Zochodne)
Sweepstakes are the new pick’ems
I predicted last year that more states would crack down on pick’em-style daily fantasy games for looking a little too much like legal sports betting. That happened. This year, online sweepstakes casinos and sportsbooks will likewise become a target for lawmakers and regulators.
As my colleague recently reported from the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States winter meeting, these products are front of mind for many heading into next year’s legislative sessions. They are also something the regulated industry is targeting.
The cues have been given and another crackdown looms. (Geoff Zochodne)
A U.S. lawmaker will propose re-criminalizing sports betting
Maybe this is a crazy, perhaps laughable take, but we’re making bold predictions, aren’t we? Anyway, here’s Deutsche Bank earlier this month: “In our time covering the gaming sector, we can't recall a period where the noise around a subsector, from both the media and political officials, is as considerable as it is at present around the [online sports betting] iCasino industries.”
So, with all that sound and fury, is it totally out of the question that one lawmaker will be brave/foolish enough to step up to the plate and say “why don’t we just make this illegal again?” Stranger things have happened.
However, if you’re asking me if a state will ACTUALLY re-criminalize sports betting, my answer would be no. Now, THAT’S crazy talk. (Geoff Zochodne)
British Columbia will take a step toward an Ontario-like iGaming system
We already know Alberta is on the road to launching a competitive market for online sports betting and casino gambling. That plan is taking longer than expected to execute, but from recent accounts, it’s still the plan. What a lot of people in Canada want to know is if there will be another province that wants to join Alberta and the already-launched Ontario in expanding regulated iGaming beyond government-owned entities.
While operators may prefer Quebec and its larger population, I think B.C. is more of a live wire for this. There’s a new government, albeit with a razor-thin majority, and an opportunity for change.
Moreover, the B.C. government withdrew from Ontario’s DFS/poker reference after voicing concerns about unregulated online gambling. To quote ESPN's Brian Windhorst: “Why would they do that?” (Geoff Zochodne)
Hard Rock will become the third-largest online sportsbook in the U.S.
This past year saw the Seminole Tribe and Hard Rock Bet’s grip cemented over the Florida sports betting market. Meanwhile, a recent report from Citizens JMP Securities estimated Hard Rock has an approximately 5% share of the U.S. sports betting market as of the third quarter, which is very much because of the heft of the Sunshine State. The third-place operator, BetMGM, was at 7%, according to JMP.
Having Florida to itself gives Seminole-owned Hard Rock Bet a high floor in the sports betting business.
— Geoff Zochodne (@GeoffZochodne) December 11, 2024
In Week 14 of NFL, HRB was downloaded ~88K times, or ~12% of all downloads in Canada/U.S., according to Citizens JMP Securities. More than Caesars, Fanatics, ESPN BET. pic.twitter.com/H9S50XHdWN
So, with Florida locked down and third place within reach, I think the Seminole and Hard Rock have the financial and legal cover to put themselves on the podium across the U.S. One way would be to use some of that sweet Florida SGP money to buy a rival operator. After all, Hard Rock already bought U.S. assets from 888. Or, Hard Rock could take some of its Florida money and spend it on winning market share where it already exists.
Either way, bronze is within reach. And, yes, it would still be a distant third, as DraftKings and FanDuel remain very much atop of the heap in online sports betting. (Geoff Zochodne)
