Hey DK,
Tomorrow might be a quiet one for me and if I do have a pick it probably won¡¯t be for this game, but I do have some thoughts. Hope you don¡¯t mind me laying them out here.
Last year the Aces were on a mission and they were 100% successful in that mission. There was a focus to this team that trickled down from Hammon to all of the players. A few times, I tried fading them, but I¡¯m general it didn¡¯t feel like they fell for many of the classic pitfall games.
This season feels a bit different. I know the Warriors fell short the season before adding KD but the addition of CP this season feels very much the same. Biggest difference is probably just the fact that CP won twice on her own before joining this super team whereas KD couldn¡¯t do it on his own and owes both rings to the super team. Anyway, enough KD shade.
Aces are 6-0, but there¡¯s something I¡¯ve noticed already in this early season and that is the lack of killer attitude that I saw from them last season. They are the only undefeated team in the league, have won half of their games by 21 or more, and currently boast an average margin of victory equal to 18¡ So what the French seal am I talking about?
Let¡¯s compare the 3 blowouts to the 3 games where their opponent covered. First thing you might notice is that all 3 games where the Aces failed to cover were on the road. I¡¯m sure Connecticut backers will be excited about this one. Don¡¯t forget their biggest win of the season was on the road opening night in Seattle where the won by 41.
What I find most interesting about the Aces schedule so far is that they have already played every non-playoff team from last season. For those that don¡¯t recall, those four teams are: Minnesota, Atlanta, Indiana, and LA (x2). In fact, this makes up 5 of their 6 first games and the last one as we already mentioned was a beat down in Seattle (who many have slotted in for worst in the league this season). Again, you could look at this as a reason to back Connecticut. Sure they fell apart in the second half against NY, but they beat Washington twice in a row and recently beat Dallas. On paper at least, that¡¯s stiffer competition than LV has faced so far.
Consider the idea that LV is on cruise control a bit (similar to the Warriors in their KD years). Some nights they come out flat because why bring it every when you don¡¯t have to? Especially when you feel like you can not only turn it on in the playoffs but also in any given game?
May 25 @LA: Down 10 after the 1st, same deal at half, then boom up 4 going into the final frame and win by 9.
June 4th @IND: Down 7 after the 1st, cut it to 1 at the half, back to 7 going into the final frame and win the 4th by 11 to claim an 84-80 win.
Just like with the Warriors, no lead will ever feel safe against these Aces.
I¡¯m getting off track a bit but I guess I just wanted to try and paint the picture. When I look at the 3 ATS losses for Las Vegas, it really just seems to me that they overlooked these teams which is reasonable considering how poor those teams performed last year. The exception here, of course, is Minnesota (and the second game in LA but they weren¡¯t about to take them lightly two games in a row). So why was LV so focused against Minnesota? Well, for those that don¡¯t recall, Minnesota actually SMACKED LV around in their last head to head matchup of 2022. That¡¯s right, on July 3rd of last year, Minnesota hosted LV and won 71-102. Gray, Wilson, Plum, Hamby, and Young all started in this match. To me, this explains why LV was not overlooking the Lynx like they did the other non-playoff teams from 2022.
They may have even overlooked Seattle if it hadn¡¯t been the first game of the season. Las Vegas was clearly excited to play that night and their talent, chemistry, and experience showed. Similar to the second game against LA where they got their coach back and celebrated the championship.
The question I¡¯ve been working up to, if you haven¡¯t already guessed (or stopped reading, haha), is ¡°Will the Aces overlook Connecticut in this first game?¡± My simple answer is no and I think there¡¯s plenty of reason to back this idea.
1. Connecticut is right behind them in the standings.
2. Connecticut was in the finals with them last year and actually managed to take a game from them.
3. It¡¯s not like the Aces can look past them to a matchup with NY or anything like that since they are playing two straight games in Connecticut.
Unless you can convince yourself that LV is overlooking everyone or everyone but NY, then you have to think they have respect for the Sun.
SO¡ If they aren¡¯t going to overlook them, then you just need the Sun to outplay them. No sir, none for me thanks.
I will finish this by saying that I think Chicago is quickly making a name for itself (especially after these two games against NY where they covered twice and pulled off a huge upset). I very recently claimed this was not a team that other teams would look ahead to, but I do feel like that is changing a bit of late. Not to mention, the game against Chicago will be huge for Candace and I¡¯m sure the whole team is starting to get excited for that. If Las Vegas handles business tomorrow and basically controls the game from whistle to whistle, covering whatever spread with relative ease, I think Connecticut could see an opening in that second game.
Just my two cents. Hope it makes some sense.
Sorry for hijacking your thread
@LippyLeans
Lol no worries , always appreciate the analysis. That's a good reason for me to back the Sun playing with a little chip from losing the WNBA Finals to the very same team they play tommorow. The line just came out at my book as -5 I have to think the betting public will hop on the Aces without question.
Who knows maybe Aces took their foot off against the Fever and were looking forward to play the Sun as you mentioned they haven't played top competition yet. They were bored and saving it for this moment. We'll find out which Aces team we get tommorow lol. Good analogy with the KD warriors 
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