Better to have bet and lost or to have never bet at all? (Tuesday, June 6th 2023)

4-4 +5.5u

Considering a few small plays today.

Leans:

LVA -5.5

IND +5.5

FWIW, I lean towards the UNDER on every game tonight. LV@CON because of the big game/playoff feel, IND@CHI because of the letdown potential on both sides, and LA@SEA because they combined for 177 last game to go over the total of 166.5 and now we see a total 2 points lower at 164.5

Not going to get in to the Aces game as I already saturated DK¡¯s thread with my thoughts on that game.

As for Indiana, there are a few things to like. 
1. Chicago coming off two straight games against NYL and just won in a large comeback. 

2. Fever front court duo of Boston and Smith had their worst game of the season.

^11/19 from 3 for the 9th best 3pt shooting team kept them in the game. Inevitable regression here hurts but if the bigs play better it could even out. 

The real question here is mental resilience. Will there be a letdown for Chicago? Copper had 27 and Parks came off the bench to hit 3/5 from 3 in 20 minutes. She has gone scoreless in every other game but 1. Chicago is running low on players and possibly also energy. They¡¯ve really only had one bad game this season and that was against Atlanta. Could we see another today? How do the Fever respond after falling just short against LV? Do they stay hungry? Perhaps they have a better shot on the 15th sandwiched between Chicago@LV and a Sky double date with Washington.

Gun to my head, I would probably side with Seattle tonight but I don¡¯t really like it. Huge game for Loyd last time out. For what it¡¯s worth, she was best on 2 days rest last season and that is the case today. Still, I feel like Seattle shot their load and just might not have enough today. 13/25 from 3 isn¡¯t likely to repeat. Neither is winning the rebounding battle nor blocks 9-1. If these numbers regress, Seattle will need to cut down turnovers a bunch and really limit fouls to stay in this game. Not sure I can trust such a young team with that task  

Side note:

I really like Nalyssa Smith to bounce back today, whether the Fever cover or not. She has 14 or more points in all 3 road games this season and has only shot 6/25 at home so far compared to 21/42 on the road. Dunno if I really want to get into player props and tracking that here but I’m likely to have some personal action on OVER 13.5 pts (-115) as well as 20+ pts (+450)

Fazz has been killing the player props so far this season. Perhaps he can grant a blessing 

Aces down to -5. I¡¯ll bite. As WNBASharp noted, the dogs have been barking. If a favourite is going to cover tonight, why not the best team in the league? 

Las Vegas Aces -5 (-110)1u

Yeah I¡¯m leaning Aces too.  I just feel like we could have three closely played quarters whenever they would be but will have one quarter where the Aces get 25-30 and the Sun have one of their droughts and score 12.

Fever +5 (-110)1u

Player props:

Nalyssa Smith OVER 13.5 (-115)1u

Nalyssa Smith 20+ points (+450)0.2u