10/06/22

19-26 -3.15U

Ya, I¡¯m mad at the mystics too but that¡¯s the way it goes. Wednesday was worse than Sunday.

I know I will have at least one self-hating play tonight. 

LIBERTY@FEVER

I don't really feel like this one needs a long write-up given how much I've talked about these two teams recently. Fever are struggling mightily and personally I have lost 11 units betting on this team in their last two games. They are now 0-3 against the Sun this year. Liberty have been playing a lot better and avoided the season sweep with their win against the Lynx on Tuesday. This season series is tied and the Liberty come into this one with an extra day of rest. 

I was wrong about the Fever mentality. The more I see Lexie Hull get minutes, the more clear it is to me that this team's goals are not wins. They didn't really respond to the call out from Mitchell. Smith played great but that was about it and it was her first look at the Sun after missing the first two games. So why the fuck am I betting on them AGAIN tonight?

Despite being in good spots the last two games, the Fever simply weren't good enough to really compete in those games. I think effort was lacking but I also just feel like the matchups were rough. Inability to score for long stretches killed them but this Liberty defense is nothing like the Dream or Sun. Similarly, although the Liberty have been shooting better of late they are still avg 40.5% from the field this season compared to the league worst Fever 40%. They avg almost 1 more 3 a game but shoot almost 4% worse from distance. 

Look at these gd shooting numbers for Indiana over the last two games: 50/138 from the field (36.2%FG), 9/44 from deep (20.5%3PFG), 26/37 (70.3%FT)

They are bad, but not that bad. I thought they would surprise us and get up for one of those two games against tough opponents but perhaps just like the Lynx earlier this week what they really need is a team they know they can beat. Enter the NY Liberty. Liberty have won 3 of their last 4 against this Fever team, @Mystics without Clark (already talked about what happened in this game with the WAS look ahead), and the Lynx. This stretch probably looks a little more impressive than it should and I am sure that the short line for the road favourite is very tempting today. 

When you reach this point in your season, it's time to come up with new goals. One good goal for teams not making the playoffs is to try and get a win against every other team (this may factor in to their last game against the Sun but no part of me wants to think about that right now). Another goal is winning a season series. They have that opportunity tonight with a franchise rival. The Liberty are still thinking about this season and how good they can be. They will get a good test hosting Chicago after this trip to Indiana. Let's not gloss over that either. It's a one game road trip tonight heading west to Indy and then coming back in just two days to host the defending champs. 

One thing I will say is that the Liberty have very few "easy" games coming up. The rest of this month will be against teams over .500. If there is urgency on their side tonight it will be for this reason. Rest assured, if the Fever find some way to lose this game I will need to simply blacklist them for the season. I have a bad habit of obsessing over underperforming teams like this. Fever should win the battle on the boards tonight (something that killed them against the Sun) and if we can just get a bit of positive regression for their shooting, I think they walk away with a win tonight. In the Liberty's last win where they beat Minnesota by 19, they were out-rebounded (36-35 and 13-9 Off), Lynx had 11 steals to their 5, Lynx had 38 points in the paint to their 28, and Lynx had 20 fast break points compared to Liberty 8. We know the Fever want to get out in transition and run. In order for this to happen, we need stops. No they're d isn't great but it did play well against ATL and the same effort today would go a lot further. The Lynx turned em over, the Fever can too. Aside from Fowles, I actually feel the Fever have better weapons for attacking the paint. This is probably the best matchup in the league for the Fever, especially with confidence so low. 

My book just has +1.5 right now so I am waiting to see what happens with the line. I don't care about losing the hook so I'll wait for 2 or better and if it goes the other way for some reason then so be it.

FEVER +? 4U

FEVER ML 1U

@LippyLeans

 I'm with you Lippy. Wednesday was worse than Sunday, Mystics was winning and covered but finally did not cover :-(.

Anyway, let move on and get back what we were giving away. Tonight, I am going with

- Fever +1.5 (LARGE)

- Under Mystics 157.5 

- Storm -5.5 (LARGE)

- Under Storm 153.5

Let's get them and bounce back to the W column. As always, GLTA

MYSTICS@LYNX

OK wtf. According to Mystics twitter this team had an offensive rating of 112 in their last game which is 10 above their average and 3 above the league leading Aces average but they still barely won the game. This one is a little odd. The win against Chicago was big for Washington but they really squandered that lead. Point shaving? Maybe. Do this shit enough and you will see things like that where the right team wins but Vegas gets their way. It's a risk we all take. What's important to me is that I don't think Washington comes out of that game on any crazy high. It's natural to look for the let down after beating the defending champs, but considering they only won by 2 and barely managed that at the end added to the fact they they are still just 1-2 against Chicago I don't think they come away from that game feeling incredible. Tonight they travel to take on Minnesota (without EDD and Clark is Q). Missing one or both of these players should help with focus and they are comfortable playing without these two by now. If both sit, I will like it even more. Fowles is not playing tonight and could be out for the season. Make no mistake, at 36 Sylvia is still the MVP of this team that had only managed 3-9 so far this season with her playing over 32 minutes per game, shooting a league leading 64.1% from the field, and boasting a 22.4 PER with a usage rate over 20%. She's played the 7th most minutes of any player this season. In fact, if we look at players playing at least 25 minutes per game, she is third in Player Impact Estimate at 16.9 behind Jonquel Jones (18.6) and Breanna Stewart (19.5). For some more context, the players that trail Sylvia are Ionescu (16.4), Alyssa Thomas (16.1), Nneka Ogwumike (16.1), A'ja Wilson (16.0), EDD (15.5), Candace Parker (15.5)... Ok hopefully you get the point. We are literally talking about the most impactful players this season. So wtf is the Lynx gonna do?

Well, it looks like they will be getting two key contributors back tonight. Damiris Dantas is coming back from Lisfranc at the end of August and Moriah Jefferson who has had a string of rough injuries since being drafted 2nd overall in 2016. Dantas was a bit disappointing last year in 24 games but 2020 saw avgs of 13/6/2.5. More surprising is the fact that she was 9th in 3pt shooting that season at 43.3% (39/90). She also shot 46.4% from the field that year. Yes, this was two years ago but it's super relevant. Minnesota played a lot of that season without Fowles and I expect to see a similar shift in their offense tonight to what they did in that stretch. In the last 7 games of the regular season that year, Dantas lead the team in scoring three times. She had averages of 18.0 ppg (54.1%) and 7.9 rpg in those seven (30.0 mpg), shooting 58.3% (21-for-36) from beyond the arc. How does Minnesota "replace" Fowles? This is how. Moriah on the other hand, has been a solid contributor for the Lynx when on the floor and will be asked to do more in the absence of Fowles. In 6 games this season, Moriah has scored between 11 and 20 points. She's also had at least 4 assists in all 6 of those games, hit a 3pt in every game and has only shot under 44% from the field once. This team operates around Sylvia, for better or for worse, and without her we should see a more wide open floor with a more balanced attack.

12 games in, the Lynx get 46.1% of their points in the paint (3rd in the league) and 22.6% of their points from the line (1st in the league). That's a total of 68.7% (more than two thirds of their offense). They are also second to last in 3pa and 3pm. This attack will not work without Fowles (not that it has really "worked" even with her). In 2020 with Fowles on the court, the Lynx avg 5.5 3pm and 19.5 3pa (28.2%). Without her on the court that season, they avgd 9.3 3pm, 22.3 3pa, and 41.9%. The team was third in offensive rating that year. The three best outside shooters that year were Banham, Carleton, and Dantas (all of which should play tonight). Maybe Dantas doesn't get to 30 but I expect her to get as many minutes as she can handle. Without the reinforcements on the Minnesota side, I was ready to back Washington but the more I look into this game the more I am just loving the OVER. Shots still need to fall, but I think this is shaping up for a pretty wide open game. You can throw a lot of the Lynx season numbers out the window tonight. Just like the Liberty, the Mystics are on a one game road trip tonight sandwiched between 2 game mini series against Chicago and Phoenix. 

Minnesota did eliminate Washington from the playoffs in the last game of the season last year but they already had their revenge game in Minnesota at the start of May. Washington probably doesn't come into this one as angry. Conversely, the familiarity of this opponent and situation could help the Lynx transition. The two will play one more time mid July in Washington. The Lynx are 44/163 (26.99%) from 3 in their 9 losses this season. In the 3 wins they have shot 21/44 (47.7%) from deep, including over 50% twice with 7/13 against the Liberty and 9/17 against the Sparks. In the other game they shot 5/14 but had 27 points at the FT line on 27/33. If Minnesota can win the 3pt battle, I feel good about their chances to cover.  Washington is 8th in both 3pa and 3pm this season. Clark being out shouldn't affect this much although it obviously gives them fewer weapons. EDD's absence will have a larger impact as she's avgd 1.6 threes on 38.9% from deep which is good for third best on the team. Not to mention everything else she brings to the table. For the record, Moriah Jefferson is 9/16 from deep this season

Jefferson should be pretty close to 100% since she hasn't been out long and her injury was not super serious (especially compare to the rest of her career). This is a great opportunity for a player who's had a rocky few years to play a significant role on a team that needs her. Cut by the Wings at the beginning of the season, Moriah can really revive her career with a strong showing this year in the absence of Fowles. I have bigger concerns for Dantas whose injury was much more serious and has kept her out a far longer time. Even if it was super tight at the end, the numbers indicate that Washington played a pretty perfect game on offense and most of that without EDD. Their opponent tonight does not pose the same threat as the previous, but it's also crazy to think they can keep up that pace on O, especially without their best player and possibly another starter. 

Waiting on injury news but my feeling in this game is on the OVER and a Minnesota cover. 

Current lines: Lynx +8.5, +282, O/U 158.0

@Crazyman2003

 Good to hear from ya. Marathon, not a sprint. With you on the Fever and still exploring the SEA/DAL game. Definitely won't be going UNDER in Minnesota but I understand the temptation. BOL

I am seeing Clark in for WAS as well as both Dantas and Moriah for Lynx. A few too many questions on the Minnesota side tonight. I think things will look better than people probably expect given a 3-9 team losing its best player, but it is the first game back for the reinforcements and a large adjustment to make mid season so I cant take this one all the way. Spread it out and let it fly. 

WAS Mystics @ MIN Lynx +8.5 (-110) 2U

WAS Mystics @ MIN Lynx OVER 158.0 (-110) 1U

Sounds like a plan 

SKY@SUN

I could get deeper into it but I don't have a lot of time and it's just a single unit play so I will keep it short. At 7-4, I think Chicago is one of very few teams that is better than its record. Opening night after winning it all is a tough spot to be in and the Sparks just outplayed them that night. The Seattle loss was unfortunate but tight and in Seattle. The other two losses were against LV who definitely had the game circled and the most recent 2pt loss @WAS (beating teams 3 times in a row is difficult and Washington is legit). They haven't been great as a favourite this year but that won't be the case tonight. Just looking at the standings (7-4@10-3), this game is far more important right now to the Sky than it is to the Sun. That being said, betting against this Sun team is scary right now. They have bucked tough spot after tough spot. Hard to say when they will blink. Why not against the defending champs?

CHI Sky +6 @ CON Sun (-110) 1U

NY Liberty @ IND Fever +1.5 (-110) 5U

I'm ALL in ...