02/06/22

9-10 +0.45U

Rough few days has me back at square one basically (since I started posting). Hoping I don't get screwed on the slightly shorter line today like I did with Dallas. It is scary betting against these Aces but I am about to do it for the second game in a row. Even though the score of the last game wasn't in my favour I still saw the same weakness in Las Vegas that I was betting against. It's a little bit like the warriors in the NBA. They are used to teams giving up and when they don't it causes problems. Just like last game, I believe that the Sun have the advantage if they can just keep the score close until late. They weren't able to "steal game 1 like I hope but they battled and I think they can come away from last game feeling optimistic as well as hungry for a win tonight. A series split against the hottest team in the league is still a great accomplishment and puts them in position to win the season series at home in July. Normally, I don't think it would matter as much because they are in separate conferences but with the Aces 4 wins ahead of anyone else in the west it's hard to see any other team making it to the finals on that side. Granted, there is a lot of season left and so many things can happen but I think the current mindset and "how things look right now" is relevant. 

Connecticut did a good job of limiting the Aces 3 point scoring and if they have any chance in this game they will need to do the same. I think they know that they can't outscore this team. They tried that. Their advantage on offense should be inside and we even saw that last game. They just need to stick with it and capitalize. Offensive boards were 10-6 in favour of the Sun but Second Chance Points were still in the Aces favour 14-12. The opportunities were there and they should be again tonight. JJ was 3/4 last game and 1/2 from 3. We need more aggression from the reigning MVP. She is shooting the basically the same % as last year (51%) but on almost 5 less shots. Thankfully, she still appears locked in on defense. 

CON Sun +4.5 @ LV Aces (-110) 4U

CON Sun ML @ LV Aces (+180) 1U

CON Sun @ LV Aces UNDER 170.0 (-110) 1U

Looking forward¡­

If the Sun get the cover tonight or, even better, win outright then I really like the Mercury to break their losing streak tomorrow as Con visits. Could be a play regardless but I¡¯ll like it more if the Sun are in a letdown spot. Peddy and Cunningham are back now but looked a bit rusty in the first game back (1/4, 1/6). Still, it¡¯s almost 40 minutes of improved ball for the team as a whole. 

Just some thoughts. We¡¯ll see what happens tonight and how the line looks tomorrow. 

11-11 +5.15

Okay maybe they can outscore them, haha. What a pace to that game as well. Bonner passing Becky on the all time scoring list while beating her on her home floor is bad ass. 

Nice hit Lippy 

Thanks Rod