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OLG NFL WEEK 2: Potential value, maybe...

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hugh613

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8269

Posted: Sep. 18, 2010 - 9:29 PM ET #1

Some of OLG's numbers don't line up at all with Pinnacle's. Does it mean anything? Maybe, maybe not, but if you're like me and only play Pro-Line when the numbers make sense, tomorrow has some potential, maybe...

BUFFALO / GREEN BAY
OLG: GREEN BAY -14.5
PINNACLE: GREEN BAY -13 (+102)

PITTSBURGH / TENNESSEE
OLG: TENNESSEE -6.5
PINNACLE: TENNESSEE -5 (-101)

CHICAGO / DALLAS
OLG: DALLAS -9,5
PINNACLE: DALLAS -7 (-104)

KANSAS CITY / CLEVELAND
OLG: KANSAS CITY -1.5
PINNACLE: CLEVELAND -3 (-111)

MIAMI / MINNESOTA
OLG: MINNESOTA -7.5
PINNACLE: MINNESOTA -5.5 (+100)

Out of the 5, I'd say Miami and Chicago offer the most value, not just because of the largest line discrepancies (+2 and +2.5 respectively, but because they also a) fall on so-called "danger" numbers (Miami, more so than Chicago) and b) are too high regardless (Dallas showed me nothing versus Washington, and Miami presents more potential problems for Minnesota than New Orleans did).

The Cleveland line is interesting because Seneca Wallace is likely to get the start in place of Jake Delhomme (I'm guessing that's why OLG has it as KC -1.5) and, well, Seneca Wallace sucks... Having said that, the line opened in favor of Cleveland at Pinnacle and is still going up. Hmmm...

Anyways, not saying to play them or not play them (it's not like games ALWAYS land on the number), but it is something to think about.

I'll post my picks once I get back/wake up.

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DeTerMiNeD

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2005

Posts: 2724

Posted: Sep. 19, 2010 - 12:13 PM ET #2

Good info Hugh... Miami offers some value to keep it within 7.5, but will have a tough go against a stout Vikings run D. Henne will have to be better this week.

Dallas 9.5 is shocking really, however, Cowboys are a public team and will still take a lot of action. If Cutler can limit turnovers, they can stay in this game.

My keys for the week... I know they're square, but...

Patriots -2.5

I don't see this line as a knee-jerk reaction. Much like last week, this match-up comes down to the New England offense vs. the Jets defense. No Kris Jenkins in the middle will alleviate some pressure upfront, and the weak side corner and DB (Cromartie & rookie, Kyle Wilson) had all kinds of problems in man coverage last week and now see a savvy Tom Brady and co. coming to town. Shon Greene looked awful last week, and Sanchez, well, is about as good as a tackling dummy. The Jets will have to score points to stay in this one, and I have ZERO confidence in them to do that. Patriots have won 8 of their last 9 at the Meadowlands, short week for the Jets, looks like the hard knocks will continue for the Jets.

Saints -5.5

I really expected this line to be around 7.5?! (trap?) Why is the public so in love with the 49ers? Their so-called vaunted defense gave up 31 points to the hapless Seahawks, while Frank Gore managed just 2.2 yards per carry on 17 touches. Something is certainly a miss! Saints will score their points, and I expect them to stack the box on defense to take away Gore, forcing Alex Smith to try and keep this close in the air. SF has to show me something to earn my wagering respect.

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hugh613

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 8269

Posted: Sep. 19, 2010 - 7:05 PM ET #3

Ended up playing baseball instead (that didn't go well), so let's give Sunday Night props a shot...

ELI MANNING PASSES COMPLETED UNDER 22.5 @ 1.80
* Eli rarely completes that many passes in a game (only 6 times last year), and with the Colts lack of run defense so evident last week, I just can't picture the Giants doing anything but pounding the ball on the ground. Plus, I think it'll be a close game as well, so the likelihood of going to an all out pass attack shouldn't be there.

PEYTON MANNING PASSES COMPLETED UNDER 28.5 @ 1.80
* It's not like he can't do it, but I don't think Peyton passes quite as much tonight as he did vs. the Texans because a) they're not likely to fall behind early vs. the Giants like they did last week against the Texans and b) the Colts are going to have to at least try to establish the run (57 passing plays vs. 10 rushing plays really isn't going to cut it). Also, the Giants are a willing dance partner when it comes to running the ball, so that should help move the clock.

LONGEST RUSH OVER 44.5 YDS @ 1.60
* Houston managed to expose the Colts suspect run defence last week and with most of those guys still out and with Bob Sanders hurt now as well, I expect the Giants to run the ball ALOT. If that holds true, the likelihood of someone popping one for major yardage is very real.

Good luck everyone!

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dl36

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2003

Posts: 27850

Posted: Oct. 27, 2010 - 2:45 PM ET #4

cheers

good luck

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OLG NFL WEEK 2: Potential value, maybe...

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