"Behind The Footy" - Aussie Rules Weekend Preview

When most of the United States is asleep Thursday through Saturday night, Australia is showcasing its version of football, or ¡°footy¡±. Most matches can be seen on Fox Sports 1, FS2 and streamed on the Fox Sports app, between the hours of 10:30 p.m. to 6 a.m., central time. The games are fun, typically high-scoring and with easy to follow rules to give you something to watch if you¡¯re suffering from insomnia or need a late-night, early-morning itch to bet on sports that is not Russian ping-pong, Japanese baseball or International tennis (good luck streaming all three of those).

First, the rules: Two teams of 18 players kick, hand-throw or run the ball, while bouncing the ball, down an oval field with goalposts at each end. It¡¯s the American equivalent of players punting the ball to each other to advance the ball down the field until someone punts the ball through the goalposts. If players kick the ball between the skinny goalposts, they score a Goal of 6 points. If the ball is kicked outside the two goalposts but between the outer posts, they earn a Behind, or 1 point. When players catch the ball in the air, they earn ¡°marks¡± and can kick the ball from where they catch it. If they catch the ball ¡°inside the 50¡± which is 50 yards from the goalpost, then they can shoot towards the goal. Players cannot get caught holding onto the ball; if they are deemed tackled, then the opposing team gets a free kick. It¡¯s a full contact sport with tackling, but high tackles or pushes in the back are excessive takedowns and can be considered penalties, and players are awarded free kicks.

Time: There are 4, 20-minute quarters, with a halftime. Time stops when the ball goes out of bounds, or the referee needs to throw the ball up when there are too many players grabbing for the ball.

The Season: There are two weeks remaining in the regular season; 22 matches overall in the regular season. The top 8 teams advance to an 8-team championship playoff tournament. The playoffs last four weeks. There are no teams receiving a bye, BUT 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 in the first round, with the loser of each match getting another chance to survive and playing the next week. The winners of those matches advance to the semifinals in the third week. The championship match is called the AFL Grand Final and held annually at the Melbourne Cricket Ground.  

Gambling: With 2-3 matches each night, and 9 on the weekend, there are plenty of matches in which to wager on responsibly. Fox Sports typically carries 3-4 matches a weekend and then real-time scoring can be followed on the AFL app. Totals are set in the 150-180 points range with scoring typically in the 40¡¯s every quarter. Since the totals are so high and the matches 80 minutes, a spread of 30-40 points is not out of the ordinary, especially with a first against last place team in the ladder. One of the highest spreads was 52 earlier in the season when North Melbourne played Richmond. North Melbourne won straight up in a 92-88 upset. Two weeks earlier, that same North Melbourne squad lost to top-ranked Geelong by 112 points, 144-32. Just like NFL, any given Sunday, or early Friday through Sunday morning when most of the American football fans are asleep.

***Home team is listed first; yes, that takes some getting used to it. Parallel it to Australians driving on the wrong side of a car.

***Games on the U.S. Telly
Friday, 11:10 p.m., Adelaide vs. North Melbourne, FS2
Saturday, 1:35 a.m., Gold Coast vs. Geelong, FSP App
Saturday, 4:25 a.m., Melbourne vs. Carlton, FS1
Saturday, 4:40 a.m., Fremantle vs. West Coast, FSP App
Saturday, 10:10 p.m., Richmond vs. Hawthorn, FSP App
Sunday, 12:20 a.m., Sydney vs. Collingwood, FS2
Sunday, 1:40 a.m., Essendon vs. Port Adelaide, FSP App

@westbrook0614

Friday, Aug. 12 (All Times U.S. Central)

St. Kilda 9 in the ladder (11-9, 44 points) vs. Brisbane 5 in the ladder (14-6, 56 points)

Brisbane is in good form. St. Kilda is not. In its last 10 matches, Brisbane has averaged 25 scoring chances (13.7 goals and 12.2 behinds) for an average of 99 points, breaking the century mark 6 times during a 6-4 span. One of those wins included a 78-57 win two months ago over this same St. Kilda team. Brisbane could have won by a lot more, having 18 behinds to just 10 goals, so they had 28 scoring chances, compared to 17 for St. Kilda (8.9). In its last 10, St. Kilda has gone 4-6, averaging 83 with 10.4 goals and 8.9 behinds. St. Kilda has also lost 6 out of its last 9, including a 45-point loss last week. 

Play the hot team ¡­ Brisbane -9 ?

Western 10 in the ladder (10-10, 40 points) vs. GWS 16 in the ladder (6-14, 24 points)

This is a huge spread between two bottom of the ladder teams, but it¡¯s probably well-deserved. Western has shown high-scoring offensive flashes in its last 10 matches, averaging 102 points (14.1 goals, 10.7 behinds) for a 5-5 record, which is a microcosm of its season, holding a 10-10 mark. They have eclipsed the century mark 4 out of the last 10, including scoring one of the highest season totals at 161. They also went over 30 scoring chances three times. On the GWS side, the Giants are 3-7 in the last 10, averaging only 77 points (10.8 goals, 8.1 behinds). They have lost 4 out of 5, with ugly offensive outputs of 29, 39 and twice in the 50s. These teams met two months ago - 125-105 win for Western.

Give me the squad with more offense and lay the big number ¡­ Western -32 ?

Adelaide 15 in the ladder (7-13, 28 points) vs. North Melbourne 18 in the ladder (2-18, 8 points)

This 33-point spread is too high. Does that mean I¡¯m confident in taking the 2-18 North Melbourne squad? No, but if you¡¯re going to play this match, take the points, OR go to sleep early; there are six more matches. Adelaide has won two in a row, eclipsing the century mark last week in a 102-86 win, but keep in mind, West Coast is 17. Adelaide is 4-6 in the last 10, averaging 92 (11.8 goals, 9.9 behinds). North Melbourne is 1-9 in the last 10, averaging just 69 points (9.3 goals, 8.4 behinds). These two teams met last month with Adelaide winning 115-58. But Adelaide followed that match, losing four in a row.

Eyes closed. Only if you have to ¡­ North Melbourne +33 ? OR UNDER 161 ?

@westbrook0614

Saturday, Aug. 13 (All Times U.S. Central)

Gold Coast 11 in the ladder (9-11, 36 points) vs. Geelong 1 in the ladder (16-4, 64 points)

Call me crazy but take the points here with the home team. Yes, Geelong has won its last 11 matches, hasn¡¯t lost since May 14, has won 11 in a row and sits atop the ladder with a 16-4 mark. But with two matches remaining and really nothing to play for, but staying healthy for playoffs, I like the home dog who has shown some life over its last 10 matches and can put up points. Gold Coast has sported a 5-5 record over its last 10, averaging 100 points (13.2 goals, 11.0 behind). Geelong has averaged 104 points (14.4 goals, 11.6 behind) over last 10 matches. The average margin has been by an average of 33.1 All the stats scream another easy win over a lesser opponent, but something about a ¡°live¡± home dog that can score is calling my name here. This is also the first meeting between these teams, so err on the side of the underdog when it comes to unfamiliarity. Don¡¯t hesitate to play Gold Coast with OVER as well.

Gold Coast +23 1/2; add the OVER 155 1/2, just in case
(You won¡¯t lose both; split at worse here)

Melbourne 3 in the ladder (14-6, 56 points) vs. Carlton 7 in the ladder (12-8, 48 points)

These are two of the most unimpressive AFL squads in the top 8. Bet against both teams when the playoffs come around. Both teams are 4-6 in their last 10; Melbourne has averaged 86 points (11.5 goals, 11.4 behind) and Carlton has averaged 83 points (11.2 goals, 10.5 behind). This is the first meeting between these teams. Melbourne has had matches with a lot of scoring chances, but they have had either the same amount or more behinds than goals 5 out of their last 10 games. That¡¯s not a good stat. Carlton is in bad form, losing by 62 in its last two matches. But 20 ? is too many points here, especially since Melbourne is not an impressive top team.

Too many points here ¡­ two unimpressive top 8 teams ¡­ Carlton +20 ?

Fremantle 6 in the ladder (13-6-1, 54 points) vs. West Coast 17 in the ladder (2-18, 8 points)

Let¡¯s continue the theme of non-impressive Top 8 squads. The Dockers have been hideous as of late, 1-2-1 over their last four matches, averaging only 62 points. The Fremantle team of two months ago was the much better squad, but we are in the here and now, and I don¡¯t like their form heading into the postseason. West Coast, despite being 1-9 in its last 10, and 2-18 overall, has been a competitive loser (which is all you can ask for in life sometimes). West Coast has only lost its last two by 19 points combined. It¡¯s average points per game over the last 10 matches is 82 (11.4 goals, 7.8 behind), compared to Fremantle at just 89 points (11.7 goals, 9.7 behind). There is a major talent gap here, BUT the Dockers are not playing well enough to warrant being 40 point favorites.

Too many points, Dockers are hideous right now ¡­ West Coast +40 1/2

@westbrook0614

 Saturday cont.

Richmond 8 in the ladder (11-8-1, 46 points) vs. Hawthorn 13 in the ladder (8-12, 32 points)

This Richmond team is the most frustrating and fun team to watch, all at the same time. This team flies up and down the field, getting scoring chance after scoring chance ¡­ the problem, they can¡¯t kick the ball through the goalposts. This was evidenced four weeks ago when they scored 11 goals and 22 behinds in one game and lost to lowly North Melbourne as a 50-point favorite. The week before, they blew a 40-point second half lead in a 94-92 loss when they had 14 behinds to 13 goals. Overall, in the last 10, Richmond has gone 5-5 and averaged 97 points (13.2 goals, 12.5 behind). Richmond needs to hold to on to the final 8 spot with two weeks left. Hawthorn is playing out the string, and the Hawks have played in some extremely low scoring matches this year. They are 4-6 over their last 10, averaging 84 points (11.4 goals, 9.5 behind). Hawthorn has won 4 out of its last 5 matches, so despite the low scoring affairs, they¡¯re competitive and winning some matches as of late. The Hawks could spoil here. Richmond won 117-94, by 23 points, over Hawthorn, on May 13. This meeting is closer.

Take the dog here against a poor kicking team. ¡­ Hawthorn +22 1/2

Sunday, Aug. 14 (All Times U.S. Central)

Sydney 4 in the ladder (14-6, 56 points) vs. Collingwood 2 in the ladder (15-5, 60 points)

When I first looked at this line, I had to do a double take. Collingwood is in 2 place, has won 11 in a row, is playing against Sydney in 4 place, and Collingwood is getting 19 ? points? This line smells like a trap where you bet the hot team, take the points and no regrets. But a closer look at the stats, and Sydney deserves the play here. Sydney has won five in a row, scoring above 110 in four of those, and beating up on teams by an average of 42 points. What I love about this Sydney team is the Swans¡¯ scoring output could be even better. For example, they had 18 goals and 18 behinds last week, scoring 126 points. They have had 158 scoring chances in their last five matches. Sydney is a sleeper to win the AFL when the playoffs roll around. Yes, Collingwood¡¯s streak of 11 wins is very impressive. But they all have been low-scoring defensive affairs (90 points, 12 goals, 11 behinds). This pick is not going to feel good because trust me, it¡¯s hard to pick against the streak, but Collingwood can¡¯t match the firepower.

Take Sydney -19 ? (Best game of the week when no one is up to watch it.)

Essendon 14 in the ladder (7-13, 28 points) vs. Port Adelaide 12 in the ladder (8-12, 32 points)

Feel free to get some sleep and not feel obligated to watch this one. If this column inspired you to watch as much Aussie Rules Football as possible this weekend, then hold your nose and take the better performing team as of late, Essendon. Both squads have nothing to play for, and very similar stats over the last 10. Essendon has won 4 out of its last 6, while Port Adelaide has dropped its last 4. These teams met May 29 when Port Adelaide won 66-50. Essendon is 5-5 over its last 10, averaging 89 points (12.4 goals, 12.1 behind); Port Adelaide is 4-6 over its last 10, averaging 83 points (11.6 goals, 10.1 behind).

Take Essendon to earn the season series split ¡­ Essendon -3 ?