T.O.C

After a short few weeks the PGA Tour returns with the Tournament of Champions from Maui. This is one of my favorite tournament of the year as I have been lucky enough to play this course and I was at the tournament 2 years ago when Xander Scauffele shot an amazing 62 on the final day to come from behind and beat Gary Woodland. I don't however love this tournament from a betting standpoint. With such few golfers in the field there is typically very few head to head match ups that standout to me, and this year is no exception. I only see a few full tournament match ups that I like, hopefully there will be a few more round by round match up I can get in on. I have had some past success in betting outright winners in this event so I might take a few shots at this to see if I can hit a nice winner. 

I had a really good betting year last year and hope continue that into the new year. I am going to start recording keeping over and will post that each week with the new plays. 

Season: 0-0-0

Plays:

Cam Smith (-160) over Makenzie Hughes (Official Play)

I typically don't ever play match ups with this much juice but Cam is just so much better than Hughes. Hughes makes his living putting. These greens are HUGE with lots of slope. You better stick it close to the pin to have a good chance at birdie. Proximity to the hole is a big deal this week and Cam Smith ranks #1 for me in this field in a proximity blend that I put together while Hughes ranks dead last. I see Smith having 12-15 foot birdie putts while Hughes will be just hoping to 2 putt for his par. There are also some short par 4 on this course that will leave just a flip of the wedge into the green. Smith is much better than Hughes in short par 4's between 350-400 yards, so again I see more birdie opportunities for Smith here as well. 

Reed (-155) over Scheffler (monitoring to see if line drops)

Reed has great history at this tournament (2, 25, 6, 2, 1, 16) while Scottie Scheffler has never played this course. Scheffler has length off the tee which will help, and he can make birdies in bunches, but prior knowledge is important here. There hasn't been a first time winner in this event in recent history to my knowledge and experience usually pays off. The wind is going to be up on Thursday and I am not sure how well Scheffler will deal with that. I don't love this play at the current line, so I will be waiting to see if I can get it with less juice. 

Werenski (-120) over Gay (official play)

This is just a case of who is worse, and I think that is Brian Gay. Gay has missed the cut in 5 of his last 7 events (somehow got a victory in 1 of those made cuts), while Werenski has made the cut in 5 of his last 8 events. In my model Brian Gay is ranked dead last in this field. While Werenski isn't a whole lot better, I am banking that Gay is just going to be worse. 

Best of luck to all of you this first week. Let me know which plays you like/dislike. If there are any that you are liking let me know that too. I would love to hear your reasons for liking a different match up. 

Cheers 

@MoMoney2

 Thank you for your write-up.

I took Thomas over Rahm.  Rahm has changed brand of clubs.

I am betting that he will not be dialed in with these new clubs yet.

Plus Thomas is playing well -- just won tourney with his Dad.

@Nebr-44

 I LOVE JT but I wouldn't necessarily make this play based off of Rahm and his new clubs. I read that Rahm shot a 59 with this new set of clubs just last week. I always think this kind of thing is a bit over rated. JT does have a great course history at this course and comes in playing well, I like it. 

Best of luck with the pick!

First Round Matches:

Cink (-140) over Streb (official play)

I have Cink as a much higher favorite than the -140 line would indicate so I am going to take this as a value play. I have Cink ranked higher in just about every category that I looked at. Heck Vegas even has Cink listed as a much higher favorite for the first round leader. I think for the first round Cink will get it done in this matchup. 

Palmer (+109) over Champ (I think Champ will get bet up more so I expect this line to create even more value, waiting)

Palmer has been really good over the last year, and the numbers support this. While I like Champ and his length as this course, I just see a lot of value in Palmer. If I bet this it would only be a half unit bet, but worth keeping an eye on to see if we can get even more value. 

I will check back in the morning to see if any of these potential plays have moved to a more favorable line. 

Best of luck to you all!

@MoMoney2

Gotta agree with you on Smith

im on it too

alot to lay but with no cuts over 72 holes he should be ahead.

smith was so good at season end

i too was looking at Werenski simply for the reason u mentioned...Gay sucks more

i initially passed and when I can back it was -135 and now -155 so I passed and left it alone.  

so hard to figure who will be good after 1 month off but at season end Matsuyama had picked up his game while Finau was just ok.

Plus Matsuyama has a very good history here 

4/2/3 in 3 starts

matsuyama -120

@sacker17

Hopefully with the Werenski line going up like it that indicates that I am on the correct side. The -120 that I got on that match up looks pretty good now. I do like Matsuyama and his record here is excellent. Like you said it is so hard to know how guys will come out after a month plus off for some of these guys. I saw an article that said Finau is taking a bit of the Bryson approach and has hit the weights hard and added more distance to his game. Added distance can be a bit asset at this course so I just want to sit back and see how he looks with my own eyes before I bet against him. 

Next week is a tough betting week too with some new guys teeing it up for the first time on tour. It will take a few weeks to hopefully find more volume with picks. 

Good luck with Matsu this week, I will be rooting for him!

Thx and I¡¯ll be rooting for you ...especially Smith!

As for Finau the weights could be a detriment, especially in the short run.

Forget the weights, Finau need a heart transplant as he can¡¯t finish!

@sacker17

Love this, and how true! He is one of the most talented guys out there but by far the WORST on Sunday when in contention. 

Round 2 Plays:

Swafford (+100) over Thompson

Palmer (-140) over N. Taylor

Garcia (-145) over Streb

Sorry I don't have time to list why I like these plays. 

@MoMoney2

 Mo

Just saw your query on my thread

I try not to bet bigger favorites in daily round play as too unpredictable.  They're all pros.  Much prefer a favorite in a tourney as in 72 holes best player usually wins.

I thought Sergio was a bit fortunate rd1 as he chipped in for eagle from 53"the native area on 5 and made alot of putts thereafter

12' bird on 6

11'bird on 9

7' bird on 10

16' bird on 12

21' bird on 13

To be fair he also missed some makeable putts but realistically he is a less than average putter.

Streb did play well with 89% greens in reg and 93% fairways hit.  I'd stay away

Again Palmer -140 is alot.  Don't trust him.  Taylor was good rd1 although I'm no fan.  Taylor did hit 93% fairways and 83% greens.  Palmer was good too.  Guess thats how they both shot -6.  I'd stay away

Same on Swafford-Thompson.  2 bottom feeders.  Swafford came into this event MC 4 last 5 events and the other was T63.  Just awful.  And his 1x at this event he finished 27 which as we know is near the bottom as there are few players only.  Thompson at least made his last 3 cuts of 2020 and the 1x her played here was back in 2014 he was mid pack 16th.  Stay away there too.  Like my plays better but if you play them good luck.

S

Mo 

2-1 rd2 for you.  Sergio managed to get the W with an assist from Streb. Touch and go there.  
I wasn¡¯t as lucky at 1-2 as Webb blew a late 5 stroke lead and despite shooting -6 lost by 1 when Scheffler caught fire.  And so it goes.

Any thoughts today?  Daily favorites are so tough to bet in long run.  For fun I may play Kokrak +105 v Horschel small simply because it¡¯s plus money. 

Sacker -

I was lucky enough to play your Smith vs Ancer  so matchup so I picked up another win with that one. I was lucky with the Sergio pick but it feels like just as many times I have a guy bogey the final hole to give me a loss, so I will take the good breaks when I can get them. 

I am not seeing ANYTHING that I like for today. I am going to follow my new year betting resolution and be disciplined by not taking making a play just to have some action, lol. I will wait to see if I can find something that I like better tomorrow. If you decide to make that Kokrak play, best of luck. I will post again tomorrow morning if I see something for the final round.  

My sentiments exactly.  Luck does go both ways but with the dailies the juice will catch up to you so the luck factor is so much larger.  Best to not force a bet but if you do want action, take a dog on a daily or 2 so a split is plus money.  The only dog I see today who has at least a half a shot (I think Kokrak may even be a bit better than Horschel right now) would be Kokrak so I will play him small at +105.

Win or lose no big deal.

How about that Matsuyama?  Dead last.  Always been a terrible putter and again this week no different but his tee to green sucks this week too which is a surprise.