RSM Classic

3 plays to start

may be more to follow 

Louie -120 v Day

Day is so talented and can come up and bite us, but more likely he he will be up the track and is more capable of most of just pulling a w/d
Louie is consistently solid and is playing solid right now and although he only played here 1x many years ago he finished T4 while Day also played here 1x many years ago and finished T57

Harman -115 v Kokrak

Harman is a Georgia guy. Born in Georgia went to U of Georgia
Playing in SC which is a stones throw away in 
Hilton Head
Harman is very familiar with these conditions/greens down south.
He has a decent record here and has finished 14/32/4 here the past 3 years
Plus he is playing well right now having made his last 7 cuts. Generally is top 30

Meanwhile Kokrak last 4x here 2MC 45 & 66
Also MC 2 of last 4 recently while winning 1.
Harman is the steadier player and should be pretty good this week

Henley -110 v English

Henley another Georgia guy (English also went to U of Georgia I think?)

Henley has been very good lately.
Last 4x recently 29/4/3/7
Last 2x here he has MC but his form right now is so much better than it was then plus the 3x he played here before the past 2 MC he was 10/6/4 so he definitely can play here when in good form

English last 4x here 3MC and T46
A lot of that had to do with English losing his game for a few years and while he is playing better, he has been off 1 month

The last 3x English played in a tourney Henley also played in same tourney and Henley finished ahead of English all 3x

I think he beats English

Btw YTD 2-0

last week

max play Ancer v Champ W

reg play DJ v Rory W

adding a 4th play

Munoz -110 v Niemann

munoz playing great

munoz underrated

munoz finished T3 here last year

niemann been off with COVID +

Looks like a solid card. I am a big Munoz follower(especially when he has longer odds)

BOL this tourney  

@sacker17

Adding play #5

Im -125 v Fleetwood
Im finished 2 at Masters beating Fleetwood easily.
Im playing better than Fleetwood this year.
Shorter course this week
Strokes gained tee to green
Im +.745
Fleetwood -.86

This says it all
Fleetwood just not sharp

Strokes gained putting Im slight edge
Im +.01
Fleetwood -.02

Im played here 2019 so has some experience here finished T37
Fleetwood 1st time here so slight edge there too

Overall I like the plays. Just my 2 cents regarding some of the reasons behind your plays. BTW thanks for the writeup!!

I like Henley beating English due to recent form. However, ties to the course actually could give an edge to English. English lives at Sea Island. Actually Harris English is one guy that I considered betting as well, but I went with Henley and Kisner. 

Regarding Fleetwood and Im, I sense a letdown from Im. His Masters performance is a bit deceptive. He was the best scrambler of the tournament and that made the difference. But great scrambling does not mean he was playing great golf at all last weekend. 

Gutinstinctus 

thanks for the reply.  Good info 

looks like I should¡¯ve stayed out with my original 3 picks as the 2 additions I added not looking so good

@sacker17

 Rd2 Max bet

Day was awful Rd1

Lucky to be -1

Didn't have any birdie putts inside 14' until the 18th when he drove in rough and hit to 8' and of course made birdie

He made all putts and was +3.2 putting while making over 100¡¯ of putts
Greens in reg English 83% Day 50%

Day had the 1 putt for bird inside 10' (last hole)
English had 7 putts inside 10' for bird
English beat Day by 3 but could've been more

Oh (kudos to Gutinstinctus for info on English membership/home) I almost forgot to mention that English is a member at this place and has a home there so he is very comfortable on the course and gets to sleep in his bed!

@sacker17
 Oops wrote up the play but forgot to title the play as

max play rd2 English -130 v Day

Cheers Sacker! Looks good. BOL with the play. 

I feel like there is lots of value on the outrights in play. I can?t believe Webb is paying 8.0 after shooting -2 (I feel he should be paying 15/1). There has to be value somewhere else when you have odds like this. 

@sacker17

 Thanks for the cash. 

Max play rd3

RD3
Howell -115 v Wallace
Howell absolutely loves this place
Won it 2 years ago
Played here every year the past 10 years 2 MC in 10 but both were in the past 3 years sandwiched in by a win !
4 Top 9 finishes and a T13/T27/T32
So 5x top 13 in 10 tries

This year looks like another good finish

Howell played good yesterday finishing -3 but it could¡¯ve been better as he missed 2 putts of 4¡¯+ and another 3¡¯+
He hit 89% greens yesterday and 83% Rd1

Wallace caddy tested COVID + so he picked up a local caddy and I guess he helped him read greens because he putted great round 1 at +4.44 strokes gained putting
That for a guy who is an average putter at best
Yesterday a return to reality he was -1
Wallace greens in regulation this week not bad 78% both days but still behind Howell

More reality today for Wallace
Go with Howell who plays here every year and has an excellent record here
Howell max bet

@sacker17

 Hey gutinstinctus 

what¡¯s your thoughts rd3 on English right back v Kizzire?

looks good but as a general rule I hate laying -200 in a daily round bet

kizzire putted ridiculously Rd1 at +4.49 strokes gained while making 180¡¯ of putts which is unheard of

english just so solidly rolling along 

Kizzire is a good putter I¡¯ll give him that but putting like Kizzire did at +4.49 is not sustainable 

probably should lay off as line is too high and I didn¡¯t get to watch any golf yesterday as I was on the road all day

thoughts?

Damn Wallace makes every putt rd3 -2(3)

drives in bunker on 1 and hits to 8¡¯ and makes putt

on par 3 3rd hits to 25¡¯ and makes putt

howell 100% greens and 100% fairways has been inside Wallace on 2 of 3 holes and is down 2 at E

Ughh

Awful tough luck loss which should've won but lost on putting 

Howell is 5th ranked putter on tour averaging +1.49/rd putting

Today he missed everything (-2.58 strokes putting) and lost 4 strokes putting to Wallace +1.6

On the course Howell was the better player 

Howell hit more greens 78%-67%
Howell hit more fairways 78%-64%
Howell forgot how to putt
Lose by 2

sorry to those that followed 

@sacker17

 Well rd3 was just brutal for me as Howell outplayed Wallace but lost 4 strokes on the putting green

every time Wallace was ready to bogey he would drop in another 10-12 footer for par 

was gonna lay low as this doesn¡¯t seem to be a good tourney for me but just trying to work hard and keep my head straight

I bet rd4

Day -115 v Kuchar

Day is the better player when playing well and this week he is.
I never liked Kuchar on a Sunday anyway
They played together yesterday and pushed when Kuchar made an22¡¯ bird on 18
Kuchar was +2.07 putting hitting 72% greens
Day was -+1.65 putting and hit 83%
Day hit 89% greens rd2 so after a lousy Rd1 Day has played real well

Day wins easy to get some 

the harder you work, the

luckier you get 

Sorry brother I dind see it. Next time pm me and Id love to discuss. Glad u hit today!