Pac-man picks

Down 26 units starting the week. Here are my picks.

Lowry +4000 to win, +400 top 10

Grillo +6000 to win, +500 top 10

Pan +1600 top 5, +350 top 20

Todd +6600 to win, +500 top 10

Finua +2500 to win, +500 top 5

Scheffler +3300 to win, +600 top 5

Horshel +2200 to win, +500 top 5

Rose +6000 to win, +500 top 10

Mullinax +2800 top 10, +1000 top 20

Thomas +1400 to win (2 unit play)

Piercy +2800 top 5, +550 top 20

Fowler +5000 to win, +450 top 10

Once again GL to all!

Once again 2 guys in the top 5 and no win. Starting to sound like a broken record. Since posting 3 tourneys ago, there have been 5 top fives without a win. If this formula will is going to work I'll need some of these players to start finishing.

Down 17 more units for total of 43 units down.

Way too many bets to win bud. It is impossible to beat the books in the long run when you are picking 8 winners per tourney.  I make between 0 and 3 picks to win per tourney. Golf is a very "scientific" sport... similar to baseball. Stats allow us to make picks. You look at a course and determine what traits or stats will matter. Then look at the field and find the good guys and try to estimate their chances, and then contrast that to their odds.

I am curious to what lead you to bet JT and Finau over Ancer and Hovland? I look at your picks and I don?t see any trait in common between your picks. 

Excited to see more of those golf swings in the tourney. Those most important stretch in golf makes me go wohoooo... Waiting for more amazing golf swings.

You actually can win money wagering 8 golfers a week. The main thing I see if is you are wagering chalk or majority are chalk than it will be a lot harder over time. More invested dollars for smaller reward means you have to hit way more often.

I usually only post my FRL and Outright Win picks. Same time it is easy to throw some other live wagers and say top 5, top 10 and parlays together to hedge your action. I didn't post, but I was all over Ortiz top 5 and top 10 last week. I have started to play around with parlays with golf. Throwing some money on one or two guys a week to finish top 10 with a college football/college basketball game, etc.

Rahm odds went down drastically over the last few months. I listed a stat awhile back that he hits top 10 in over 50% of his starts. Even those that like smaller odds and less risk could parlay him and make money consistently.

College football and college basketball are majority of my wagers. Golf is more of a side hustle but there is a TON of money you can make off of this whether you enjoy it or not. BOL to all!  

@fightingillini

 You may be right with the 8 picks. But I think it will be very hard to find consistent value making 8 winner picks per tourney. 

I agree that you can find lots of value live wagering, especially when we have strokes gained data for that tourney (like this Houston Open). 

For the Houston Open, I have bet one winner, and will place 3 top 20 bets. Then it will be all live. When you have 8 winner picks, your live bets all of a sudden transform into trying to bail out from the hole you already dug. You will rarely be placing a 15-1 or better bet live. 

I think we agree on most of the method just go about it differently

I have continually used anywhere from a few up to 8-10 in tournaments for awhile now. I think the difference is I don't use a ton of chalk in my initial plays before the tournament starts. If I do, I will hedge or add on later in the tournament so I don't have losses. You can find excellent value before the tournament starts and live. If a strong field or more prestigious tourney the odds of a longshot winning drop down considerable. I am all about adding more value if guys like Rahm, DJ, Rory, JT, etc aren't involved. I have been playing some top 5/10/20 more lately depending on tourney.

Good to see you around and BOL  

@gutinstinctus

 Thank you for your input. All help is appreciated. I was already leaning on cutting the fat from my picks. Not in terms of how many players but in terms of the smaller odds bets. I look at a combination of course history, recent form, last tourney finish, recent putting form, and players schedule. 

I don't think I'm far off. I've gotten 9 top 5's in 5 tourneys. My made cut percentage is +10 over the top 12 odds players i don't pick. Just haven't hit a winner in the last couple. 

@gutinstinctus

 As far as JT and Finua over Ancer and Hovland, Ancer was him playing of his career average for the last 5 tourneys. System didn't think he could keep that up. Hovland was simply strokes gained last 5 were below the other 2.