Math Majors

So it's these two B2B to send you to the rail?

KQ v Ks6s - He's only got 3 cards in the whole deck minus the spades but it's dumb for that to influence his call at all. Preflop you'd be about 73-75% by my count. 3 outs x 8, and that's if you don't hit a Q. After the flop you've got him 86% unless there are 2 spades on the board. Going to the river if he hasn't made a draw of some sort it's 92% for you to win the hand.

A8 v A5 - This is a lot closer because your kicker isn't as strong so it's more likely to see a chop pot. After the flop though you're really strong. Going to the river he' got 7 outs to win ~ 84% you're gonna win.

That 88 v 77 one outer is sick by the way, I think I might have thrown up. Perfect card had to hit him and it did.

On the first hand, you were 69% EV (incl splitting ties). 

On the second, 65%.

So you were the favorite both times, but perhaps this is the wrong question.  I'm going to assume you were about a 65% favorite on a lot of hands earlier in the game and that you won almost all of them.  Thats how you got to the large chip stack to begin with. 

So you had a string of good luck.  Then you hit some bad luck and you lost. 

What are the odds? 

It depends on how you phrase the question.  If you want to say "what are the odds that I lost on one particular hand that I lost on?"

Not very good.

The better question is "What are the odds that I eventually lose on 65/35 odds twice in a row if I play enough hands"

Extremely high.

Think about it another way, A5 will beat A8 a higher percentage of the time than Alex Rodriguez will get hits in at bats.  

What are the odds A-Rod gets two hits in a row?  High enough that you shouldn't be shocked when it happens....