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IMHO, Sickest hand ever...

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MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 1:32 AM ET #1

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxo1mAng090

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scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 7:51 AM ET #2

One of the shrewdest bluffs in televised poker history...if not the best of the best.

Dwan knew the holdings of both Barry and Peter and played it to perfection. He only needed his one 10 to know that someone else probably didn't have 10 10. He knew Barry staying in the hand with an overpair and knew Eastgate limped with a 2 which in all probability had a weak to semi-weak kicker. And when your facing a 100K turn bet, even a 2 with a K kicker makes you leery.

Poker at its finest...

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MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 11:11 AM ET #3

Exactly.

I've watched a ton of poker TV and always thought, "These guys aren't so great." Then I saw this hand and realized that Dwan is a fucking alien.

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Iw1nBets

Legend

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 58493

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 11:40 AM ET #4

silly so called pros buy in with any 2 cards

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runlagos

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 2897

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 11:47 AM ET #5

It is also possible because Dwan has the reputation that he has.

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MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 1:11 PM ET #6

Quote Originally Posted by Iw1nBets:

silly so called pros buy in with any 2 cards

I don't understand what this means.

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MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 1:14 PM ET #7

Quote Originally Posted by runlagos:

It is also possible because Dwan has the reputation that he has.

Actually, he has a reputation for making moves... which would seem to make it less likely that he could bluff out two opponents... one with AA and the other w/ three deuces. He levels both of them... and Greenstein is no slouch.

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runlagos

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Joined: Jun, 2009

Posts: 2897

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 8:58 PM ET #8

Quote Originally Posted by MrGlue:

Actually, he has a reputation for making moves... which would seem to make it less likely that he could bluff out two opponents... one with AA and the other w/ three deuces. He levels both of them... and Greenstein is no slouch.

Greenstein is definitely the one he knows he can get off his hand. I think he knew where Peter was at also, but perhaps just knew Peter was a box? I dunno. Peter never has seemed like a very solid poker player imo. (solid enough to win main event yes, but not necessarily cash game against the best players in world).

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 11:22 PM ET #9

Quote Originally Posted by MrGlue:

I don't understand what this means.

I think he means that it was a family pot with a table of pros (i.e. players calling with whatever they are holding...ironically all 'priced in' as they see it as we discussed in another thread)...

This is something you commonly see at 2/4 limit and he's holding them to a higher standard...

He should too. Because even the monster that Eastgate had was folded. If your not prepared to play trips with a weak kicker, lay the hand down preflop.

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scalabrine

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Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 17, 2011 - 11:26 PM ET #10

Quote Originally Posted by runlagos:

Greenstein is definitely the one he knows he can get off his hand. I think he knew where Peter was at also, but perhaps just knew Peter was a box? I dunno. Peter never has seemed like a very solid poker player imo. (solid enough to win main event yes, but not necessarily cash game against the best players in world).

I think Greenstein thought he was probably good but wasn't 100% certain, given the time he took to fold, and simply wasn't prepared to call 100k and then possibly his entire stack on the river with just Aces.

The play is tremendous. I will say though it was a an overbet and if Dwan is holding 10 10 there or A2 he wants both Eastgate and Barry IN the pot.

The problem with Dwan is, he overbets even with monsters at times and both Barry and Eastgate thought there would be better spots against weaker, more predictable players. I don't fault them.

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wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6724

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 5:02 AM ET #11

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I think he means that it was a family pot with a table of pros (i.e. players calling with whatever they are holding...ironically all 'priced in' as they see it as we discussed in another thread)...

This is something you commonly see at 2/4 limit and he's holding them to a higher standard...

He should too. Because even the monster that Eastgate had was folded. If your not prepared to play trips with a weak kicker, lay the hand down preflop.

What a dumb comment. For Eastgate, the flop could have ideally been A35, 442, or the non-nuts of 224. After the turn bet, Eastgate had too much money in front of him with a weak kicker, so the fold is VERY UNDERSTANDABLE. If he had about $100K, it should have been an easy all-in reraise of Dwan after the flop.

And the call of the after the flop by Greenstein was MORONIC. With his position, how could he not figure with the large bet by Dwan and call by Eastgate that one of them most likely had AT LEAST trips? The bet on the turn by Dwan was incredibly ballsy, but inevitably his luck will take a big turn for the worst when someone is slow playing quads, tens full, or even T2 after the flop.

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wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6724

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 5:10 AM ET #12

Quote Originally Posted by MrGlue:

Exactly.

I've watched a ton of poker TV and always thought, "These guys aren't so great." Then I saw this hand and realized that Dwan is a fucking alien.

He is playing brilliantly and fearless at this point, but it will be interesting to see how Dwan reacts when the cards turn and he starts losing millions in a session.

And FWIW, a lot of these cash game players are nothing special; just willing to gamble and have access to loans. The exceptions being Doyle Brunson, Ivey (he can afford to lose since he makes a fortune off Full Tilt, but is a very ballsy player), Dwan (till he loses several million in a short time), and the nit, Howard Lederer (he can also afford to lose like Ivey since he is filthy rich off of Full Tilt)

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wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6724

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 5:19 AM ET #13

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

One of the shrewdest bluffs in televised poker history...if not the best of the best.

Dwan knew the holdings of both Barry and Peter and played it to perfection. He only needed his one 10 to know that someone else probably didn't have 10 10. He knew Barry staying in the hand with an overpair and knew Eastgate limped with a 2 which in all probability had a weak to semi-weak kicker. And when your facing a 100K turn bet, even a 2 with a K kicker makes you leery.

Poker at its finest...

Wrong on two fronts. Dwan guessed correctly and had the balls to bet Eastgate out, hoping he was not slow playing the nuts. And Barry could have just as easily been holding pocket tens. Dwan's turn bet was a fine line between bravery and stupidity, and it turned out to be right only because it worked that time.

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scalabrine

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Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 8:08 AM ET #14

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

What a dumb comment. For Eastgate, the flop could have ideally been A35, 442, or the non-nuts of 224. After the turn bet, Eastgate had too much money in front of him with a weak kicker, so the fold is VERY UNDERSTANDABLE. If he had about $100K, it should have been an easy all-in reraise of Dwan after the flop.

And the call of the after the flop by Greenstein was MORONIC. With his position, how could he not figure with the large bet by Dwan and call by Eastgate that one of them most likely had AT LEAST trips? The bet on the turn by Dwan was incredibly ballsy, but inevitably his luck will take a big turn for the worst when someone is slow playing quads, tens full, or even T2 after the flop.

Who's talking about 'ideals'?

Ideally, I wish I was dealt broadway suited connectors every hand and ideally I wish I flopped a royal flush every time.

I doubt Eastgate was chomping at the bit he would flop 442 or 224 given the odds of flopping a full house are 1087-1. A straight with 24 is asking a lot as well given there's only two ways to make onewith that holding. A much more likely scenario would be flopping three of a kind which gives the best odds of the three by far obviously (1.3%).

Therefore, if you aren't prepared to play trips with a 2 or 4 kicker respectively, then lay down the hand.

ESPECIALLY when you're sitting at a table with what contains some of the best high stakes cash game players in the world while your resume contains a single victory in a huge tournament you went on a rush in.

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 8:11 AM ET #15

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

He is playing brilliantly and fearless at this point, but it will be interesting to see how Dwan reacts when the cards turn and he starts losing millions in a session.

And FWIW, a lot of these cash game players are nothing special; just willing to gamble and have access to loans. The exceptions being Doyle Brunson, Ivey (he can afford to lose since he makes a fortune off Full Tilt, but is a very ballsy player), Dwan (till he loses several million in a short time), and the nit, Howard Lederer (he can also afford to lose like Ivey since he is filthy rich off of Full Tilt)

The cards have turned on him already...

Get with the times if you're going to comment intelligently (something you've failed to do at this point) in the poker forums...

https://www.onlinepoker.net/poker-news/general-poker-news/tom-durrrr-dwans-amazing-online-roller-coaster-ride-2009/3928

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 8:24 AM ET #16

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

Wrong on two fronts. Dwan guessed correctly and had the balls to bet Eastgate out, hoping he was not slow playing the nuts. And Barry could have just as easily been holding pocket tens. Dwan's turn bet was a fine line between bravery and stupidity, and it turned out to be right only because it worked that time.

That is a play on a semantics.

People can KNOW if they are GOOD OR NOT if they read another player and their betting patterns well enough which Dwan did with Eastgate. Of course Dwan didn't know the exact cards or suits of his opponents. He did know the RANGE and that's what won him the hand.

Do I have to put the word RANGE in my sentences so things get cleared up for you a little better?

Perhaps you'd like to tell Dwan himself he didn't know approximately what Eastgate had when at 4:29 in the video, Dwan says Eastgate had the best hand of the three and the cards still weren't turned over.

And to say Barry could have 'easily' been holding pocket tens shows you should stick to the main sports forums (and even that's a stretch). The ENTIRE play was based on the fact Dwan KNEW one of the remaining 3 tens was already out of the deck because he was holding one of them, making it that much more improbable Barry had the two remaining tens.

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MrGlue

Prospect

Joined: Sep, 2009

Posts: 250

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 8:40 AM ET #17

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

He is playing brilliantly and fearless at this point, but it will be interesting to see how Dwan reacts when the cards turn and he starts losing millions in a session.

And FWIW, a lot of these cash game players are nothing special; just willing to gamble and have access to loans. The exceptions being Doyle Brunson, Ivey (he can afford to lose since he makes a fortune off Full Tilt, but is a very ballsy player), Dwan (till he loses several million in a short time), and the nit, Howard Lederer (he can also afford to lose like Ivey since he is filthy rich off of Full Tilt)

On PTR's "Top Online Poker Winners Of All Time", Dwan is fourth. He's up over 5 million... AFTER suffering through a (around) 6.5 million downswing. We've seen how he reacts when the cards turn.

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wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6724

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 2:24 PM ET #18

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

The cards have turned on him already...

Get with the times if you're going to comment intelligently (something you've failed to do at this point) in the poker forums...

https://www.onlinepoker.net/poker-news/general-poker-news/tom-durrrr-dwans-amazing-online-roller-coaster-ride-2009/3928

I have been stating this about Dwan for a long time now, so thanks for providing proof of my prediction coming to fruition.

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wizardofroz

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2004

Posts: 6724

Posted: Feb. 19, 2011 - 2:30 PM ET #19

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Perhaps you'd like to tell Dwan himself he didn't know approximately what Eastgate had when at 4:29 in the video, Dwan says Eastgate had the best hand of the three and the cards still weren't turned over.

I have MUCH RESPECT for Dwan's ballsy play, but he basically realized what Eastgate folded based on his reaction after the turn bet.

And once again, Greenstein should have folded his hand instantly after Eastgate called the HUGE flop bet by Dwan. No clue why he would not gamble after the turn since Eastgate folded and he put that much in after the flop.

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scalabrine

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 28221

Posted: Feb. 20, 2011 - 7:52 PM ET #20

Quote Originally Posted by wizardofroz:

I have been stating this about Dwan for a long time now, so thanks for providing proof of my prediction coming to fruition.

The problem with your prediction is that he's not "Busto", that is, broke and out of the game.

He's up big again. Which shows he's more of a world class talent than many pros out there today.

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IMHO, Sickest hand ever...

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