Hello Everyone,
I¡¯m back and I¡¯ve found the first huge play of the season. Quick update since last year, I¡¯ve drastically evolved my methods and models this season to include more defensive data as well as home or road performance data. I also did an analysis of last season¡¯s over/unders and I found that the majority of games go under. In fact on average an over/under of 110 should go under approximately 41.89% of the time. However, I also found that O/U¡¯s are slightly less predictable than spreads so I prefer to go bigger on spread then O/U¡¯s. Enough talk here are this week¡¯s picks:
1. Tampa Bay Storm +7.5 (19.43)
The number (19.43) refers to the difference between my line and current betting line. I believe Tampa Bay should be favored by -11.93 in tonight¡¯s games. This means Tampa Bay should cover +7.5 points approximately 96.92% of the time based on my findings.
2. Jacksonville Sharks +13.5 (15.57)
Jacksonville is also a reasonable bet for tomorrow. I believe the difference in this game will be defense.
3. Arizona vs Jacksonville Under 110 (-14.28)
4. San Jose vs Spokane Under 110 (-10.35)
Good luck this weekend!
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