12/6/24

DET/OTT O5.5 -175 

FLA/PHI O5.5 -150 

COL/CAR O6.5 -120 

2LP -105 CBJ/EDM O5.5 & 1P O1.5 

3-1 Yesterday. Nice bounce back after taking a day off. Checking the speed sheet for plays. BBL. 

HAPPY FRIDAY EVERYONE! 

Nice work T!

Overall a strong night for the overs.

I've got PiT/NYR and CBJ/VAN as potential overs today, with the caveat that rangers scoring seems to be a bit sus as the kids say

Thank you! 

I agree. Those two games are very strong showers on my speed sheet for the O5.5/O6.0/O6/5. This is something I found interesting though...

NYR have scored 33 GF at home this year in 12 games. Without giving any half goals thats only an AVG of 2 goals per game at home. PIT have 35 GF in 12 away games played. Also without giving any half goals or rounding up for goals (they dont give half points for the post ) That is an AVG of 2 goals per game they bring to the table. With both teams in their current situation at home and on the road they are each averaging about 2 goals per game indicating we can expect about 4 goals?? That seems "sus" (as the kids say) to me. BUT the reality is NYR have only scored 10 goals in their L4 games at home and 24 goals in the L10 total, a very modest 2.4-2.5 GPG AVG. In their 2 road games the PIT Penguins only scored 2 goals each game (Easy AVG lol). However, the Pens have score 30 total goals in their L10 games (home & away) for an AVG of 3 per game... SOOOOOOOO.....

If you do the half goal then NYR are at 2.75 GPG when playing at home and the PIT are 2.91 GPG when playing on the road. So an AVG GPG total of 5.66 when we could in the full AVG and run the decimal out to the hundredth decimal point.  

The averages seem to be pointing to a score somewhere between 4-5.6 goals which make it a potential play for me at O5.5 or U7 ALT Total 3-way. 7 goals has cleared 2 in the L5 meetings while the O5.5 has cleared 4 of L5 meetings. Interesting to note that the 1P O1.5 goals has hit 4 of the L5 meetings as well! 

I am leaning to the O5.5 parlayed with the 1P O1.5 in this game for pretty small as it seems like there may be the chance for a 4-1 or 3-2 score...

Cheers and BOL on your plays today! 

O5.5 Leans today: All of them except for MIN/ANA. While this game could go O5.5 where the total sits I think it is more likely a 4-1 score. MIN PL+115??

WAS/TOR O5.5 - I normally do not play the Leafs but I may make an exception on this total O5.5 

SEA/NJD O5.5 - These teams do not have a history when meetings of covering totals but recent play of the two teams and goalies may lend itself to an O5.5 play tonight. 

PIT/NYR O5.5 & 1P O1.5 - Several strong indicators but see info above regarding PIT AVG Away game goals and NYR AVG home game goals. Interesting stuff from the world of averages...at least to me anyway 

CBJ/VAN O5.5 & 1P O1.5 - This one is following many of the same indicator lines of the PIT/NYR game but has the same problem with Home team AVG GPG and Away team AVG GPG. If the roles were flipped (VAN playing @ CBJ) it would be a totally different story, CBJ scores more at home and VAN scores more on the road while protecting their home ice better. This is also true for PIT/NYR, PIT scores more at home and the NYR score more on the road....

DAL/VGK O5.5 - The numbers are indicating this one but historically they are lower scoring games. O/U 3-7-0 L10. 

Will be back later to write up data for any plays for tonight. 

GL 

For the 3 early games:

SEA/NJD O5.5 -150 - 55.14% O5.5/51.92% O6.0/MU AVG TGPG 6.0/2 OF L5 MEETINGS O5.5/Away Team 5 of L10 O5.5/Home Team 6 of L10 O5.5/1P O1.5 1 of L5 

Only Markstrom confirmed at this time. I expect NJD to be ready for SEA who played last night nearby so not much travel, but 3rd game in 4 days and 3rd game of a 4-game road trip with the NYR on tap Sunday. Looking for a 5-1 or 4-2 score with NJD getting the job done. That being said...

NJD PL -1.5 -105

WAS/TOR O5.5 -165 - 56.52% O5.5/MU AVG TGPG 7.0/4 of L5 meetings O5.5/Away Team 6 of L10 O5.5/Home Team 2 of L10 O5.5/1P O1.5 1 of L5 

Only Lindgren confirmed at this time. I HATE playing Leafs games in anyway shape or form but WAS scores a lot on the road and TOR scores more at home, so this is a good situation where history is on the side of the O5.5, going over that total 8 of the L10 meetings. During that 10-game stretch, TOR scored 46 goals, AVG of 4.6 GPG, and won 9 of L10 while WAS has scored 25 goals AVG of 2.5 GPG winning only 1 of the L10. If history shows up we can count on roughly 4 goals from TOR and 2 goals from WAS, I will take a small play on the O5.5. I REFUSE to bet the Leafs to win as I assume they will screw it up somehow. But a 9-1-0 streak is pretty damning...

2LP +110 PIT/NYR 1P O1.5 & FG O5.5 - 64.47% O5.5/55.90% O6.0/MU AVG TGPG 5.0/4 of L5 meetings O5.5/Away Team 6 of L10 O5.5/Home Team 6 of L10 O5.5/1P O1.5 4 of L5 

This one is indeed suspect as mentioned earlier in the thread, BUT once again this history is hard to ignore. 7 of L10 meetings O5.5 & 6 of L10 meetings O1.5 in the 1P. Each of the teams are 6 of the L10 O5.5. The ONLY metric that would typically steer me away from this play is the Match Up Average Total Goals per Game. This metric being under 5.5 is not ideal but as mentioned earlier in the thread, the MU AVG TGPG of 5 is erring on the side of extreme caution with the formula. That being said, I dont think anyone believes this is going to be a 4-1 or 3-2 game so I feel comfortable playing O5.5. NYR should all be on notice after their captain was traded today, PIT goalie has a 3.31 GAA. NYR goalie 3.05GAA. NYR have scored 39 goals over the L10 games against PIT. PIT have scored 23 goals in the L10 meetings against NYR. Gimmie 4 goals from NYR and 2 goals from PIT with at least 2 in the first period and who is happy? This guy. 

NJD PL -1.5 -105

SEA/NJD O5.5 -150

WAS/TOR O5.5 -165

2LP +110 PIT/NYR O5.5 & 1P O1.5

10:00pm EST Games later. 

Thank you! 

Adding:

CBJ/VAN O6 -125

Van REG -145

VGK ML +125

Hopeful for a better late night than early round. 0-4 in the early games.

NJD had a shot at the EN which wouldve taken the early games to 2-2 but to be or not to be, alas it was not to be.