THANK GOD WE ARE BACK! At least for another month anyway until the four nations battle royale.
Took some of the three days off to tally the results from the December speed sheet. This is not what I have played but if I would've followed the speed sheet probabilities at a certain percentage, where the sheet record is for December.
40%-49% O5.5 17-17 (I never really look at playing these games but have been tracking the numbers through December to see if there are any value plays hiding in that probability range, I do not believe there are. However, at a 50% hit rate there are obviously some games that could be checked out closer.)
50%-60% O5.5 - 43-39
61%-70% O5.5 26-21
71%-80% O5.5 1-5 (I do believe this number will improve as data is entered into the sheet. Averages are only as good as the amount of data that is input to them so hopefully the more data the sheet gets, the more accurate this number will be come.)
50%-60% O6.0 37-29
61%-70% O6.0 4-6
71%-80% O6.0 1-0
50%-60% O6.5 18-14
I am hoping to see the fruits of labor of the chart grow. First year trying this method out after years of playing O5.5. Onwards and Upwards, data, data, data...
For today:
BOS/CBJ O5.5 - 71.98% I know. I know, this play is the lowest percentage hit rate for the month of December. BOS on the road is AVG 2 goals per game and CBJ at home are AVG 4 GPG. 70% of BOS road games have gone O5.5 this season while 82% of CBJ home games have gone O5.5 this season. BOS appears to be giving Swayman the night off which is a bummer considering his GAA over 3.0. Merzlikins is sure to let a few by him so we just need to hope BOS remembers the recent 5-1 beating the jackets put on them in Beantown back before Thanksgiving and look for this one to clear 5.5 with both teams scoring. I got this game in last night for the O5.5 -160 in anticipation there would be line movement today and as expected it moved up to -190 for the O5.5.
CHI/BUF O5.5 - 56.93% O5.5/50.43% O6.0/CHI AVG 3 GPG on the road/BUF AVG 3 GPG at home/CHI 3 of L5 O5.5/BUF 4 of L5 O5.5/3 of L5 meetings O5.5/3 of L5 1P O1.5/Netminders both working around a 3.0GAA. I agree this game is about a 50/50 toss-up. Could be a 3-1 score as easily as a 4-3 final score. Buffalo just picking up their first win in their L10 makes this game slightly more volatile but if BUF can score like they did against NYI before the break, we can expect CHI to net a couple BUF scored 21 goals over their 9-game losing streak AVG 2.33 GPG while allowing 41 over the same 9 games AVG 4.55 GPG to their opponents. That same 9 game span for CHI saw the Blackhawks score 26 goals and allow 30 goals. CHI AVGGPG 2.88 while allowing 3 GPG to thier opponents. Useless information but both teams ended before the Christmas break in games that saw the game totals go O6.5. Currently the line for O5.5 sits at -165. I expect this to climb as the day goes.
Cheers!
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