Why is Brady a underdog

so why is tom Brady a +3.5  underdog vs the saints. Tom brady is 4-1 vs the saints 

He would¡¯ve been an underdog the last five years at least even if his pats teams were playing in New Orleans

He's 43 and overrated! 

1st week spreads are in large part based on last year's performance. The Saints were 13-3, the Bucs only 7-9. Alvin Kamara is healthy again, he had a torn MCL most of last year. Their defense had a +15 Turnover ratio, 2nd best in the league. You'll win alot of games in the NFL when you win that battle. The Saints are a good team and should be a legit Super Bowl contender.

This is Brady's first year with a new team, ever (pros). And with Covid hampering practice/playing restrictions, you have to wonder about cohesiveness, especially early on, with a new team. I will tell you this, as a resident here, I see highlights of Bucs practices, interviews, etc., every day. They luv Brady (teammates) and from what I've seen, he's looked sharp. He has the weapons around him and with the addition of Fournette, to go along with Ronald Jones, the Bucs may actually have a solid ground game this year, something they have lacked in recent years. People are underestimating Brady's arm, that's to his advantage. If the Bucs get stability on the offensive line, they too will be a playoff contender.

Cup,  I got luv for you, but let's not forget Brees is 41 too. Not a huge difference  between that and a recently turned 43 (Aug. 3, Brees was born Jan. 15, 1979). This could be record for combined age for the 2 starting QB's, 84 for you math whizs'.

Tom Brady isn't playing the Saints........Tampa Bay is.

Take a look at TB's turnover, penalty and pass defense numbers from last year genius

And by TB I mean Tampa Bay.

Penalties, pass defense, yes. Turnovers single handedly revolved around Jameis, who ironically is now, umm...a Saint. Brady may be on the downside of his career but he'll personally cut the turnovers in half, if not better. A Brees injury during the game could prove to be most interesting.

Tampa has had early season success in New Orleans, 2 September wins in the past 5 years, FWIW. 2015 with Jameis at the helm and 2018 when Ryan Fitzpatrick, 417 yds., 4 TD, outdueled Brees for a stunning 48-40 Buccaneer win as a 10 pt dog. 

Who will play harder on offense for their QB? Start there > (motivation)

Who has been controversial with his teammates in the past year?  Start there and double back to ask yourself, will this affect motivation?

How will the key players play if their motivation is affected, positively or negatively? 

How will the TB defense be better this year with less time on the field and not having to dig out their team's mistakes from the carelessness of Winston?

How will the lack of reps/timing affect a shorter QB who does not scramble and relies on timing?

oK....its obvious I am slanted toward TB in this one and I grabbed the +4 that appeared last week. I honestly believe that Gronk will be huge having a year off and his sense of humour and blocking ability will bode well for Fournette's running style....then you have excellent middle of the field receivers for Brady and I am see this game within a TD all game long and believe Brady will be ready for a final drive if he needs it and Gronk in his pocket who excels as one of the greatest 2nd half players I have ever seen (trust me, I take him all the time in props and watching him get 1-2 throws in the first half drives me nuts!)..... 

Brees will regret opening up his mouth and backtracking.....as much as I believe he was genuine, alpha males may forgive, but they never forget when the chips are on the line and Brady/Gronk are the two biggest alphas in the NFL and will inspire their team to an upset victory.

TB +3.5 or +4 and ML 

BOL

Interesting to consider:

Brady has been favored in his past 74 regular-season starts.

Steve Young owns the second-longest streak of consecutive regular-season games as the favorite with 62 from 1993 to 1997. Former St. Louis Rams quarterback Kurt Warner was favored in 48 straight from 1999 to 2003.

Brady has had success as an underdog in the regular season. He led the Patriots to outright wins in 29 of his 47 regular-season games as an underdog. New England went 33-13-1 against the spread as an underdog in Brady starts.

Don’t know the exact breakdown, but have to assume the majority of the underdogs were on the road. 

Brady's first game in a new system after 20 years with pats, no preseason can't see him doing great in this one.

No I didnt say Brady was age 41  I said Tom Brady is 4 wins and 1 lost Su  against the saints. You miss understood me

How many games did Tampa Bay lose by 7 or less points last year? 6!!! Thanks to the turnover machine that is Winston. You have to think this year more than any the early lines are based off last year. Brady will not put the team in the same position of giving teams 2-3 extra possessions every week, and they’ve added to the offense for this season. False favorite in my opinion and I’m going to the Take the points while I can, especially if im getting the hook in my favor.

Raiders, if you've been betting on NE over the years, you've been winning. Early on I went against Brady and company and lost. But the smart bettor I am reversed course and won time and time again. I believe I owe Tom Brady a beer! Or two-

Absolutely

But I am also somewhat biased.  Not just because he has the best record and ATS so good ¡ª I just think he is the best ever.  Could also make the case we put him on that course in the playoff game so many years ago.   

Bucs are a public dog here... Love fading public dogs going to slam the Saints. Just hate -3.5 never lay the hook gotta decide If I wanna buy a half or just take Saints ML as buying the hook to -3 can cause -125, -135 juice might make more sense to just lay the -175 on the ML 

Derek, you have anger. And referencing Tom Brady and sex acts is better left for Hustler magazine, not this forum, have some respect. 

I think you underestimate Gronk and his playing relationship with Brady, they're a powerful combination, even still. I see excerpts of practice everyday on the local news/sports. You may not have respect for them but I'll promise you everyone on the Saints does, and rightfully so. Truth be told, O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate were already one of the better TE duos in the league. That being said, the Saints are good, no doubt, and should be favored. As I said before, they are a legit Super Bowl contender. Best of luck to you.

Well mainly because its the bucs vs saints, not Tom Brady lol. 22 starters on each team.  BUT... i hear ya hahaha

Think the Saints win and most likely cover but took ML to be safe as I hate -3.5 lines in NFL

Saints have a team with experience and gel and this is a not a playoff game which they always choke so think they win. Especially with public on the Bucs, worst bet in sports are public dogs IMO 

update......

Mike Evans
( day to day ) hamstring

Cause the bucks d can¡¯t stop a nose bleed lol