week 15 survivor

very early tuesday morning numbers. all of the world piling on the ravens to beat giants.

1          BAL    51.3%

2          ARI     18.59%          

3          MIN    10.04%          

4          CIN     7.43%

5          KC      6.69%

6          WAS   3.35%

7          ATL    1.86%

8          LA       1.49%

9          NYJ    1.49%

10        HOU   1.12%

Arizona pick at number 2 is obviously a best team available rather than a confidence pick. 

I believe WSH is a much better option and if you want to survive if this week is the Amargeddon of upsets,  as a standalone crazy black sheep I would look at the NYJ if you have balls 

@WonderWeasel

 Looks like a play against the Patriots and their rookie quarterback. That’s a pretty simple and proven strategy. I imagine Wash is a definite play if Derek Carr is inactive. In that case you’d have to sit down and think about how much you can get from their backup qb. Would it be possible to get someone to play better than Carr has, who knows. 

Thanks for your input Max.  I¡¯ll circle back here in a few days with more info. 

I don¡¯t have ravens or Washington left. I¡¯m leaning cards or Denver, denver at home maybe better option then cards 

@maxwagers781

 Is the percentage is ATS or SU ??

 Thanks in advance. 

@PerfectStorm

 They do survivor ATS?

Would that not defeat the purpose of a survivor pool?

NE coming off a bye getting a little healthier I don¡¯t like this Arizona game. Also there is no reason for NE to Tank with no pure number #1 draft class. The top 5 can be interchangeable and drafted based on individual team needs. 

Just my thoughts. 

I assume anyone left with Baltimore didn't pick them against Vegas earlier.  That was a kick in the nuts.

I know some people have this team left:

Panthers

They're about to feast on the Cowboys

or the Rams s/u tnf

@WonderWeasel

 also don't think patriots have too much motivation to win on the road now. as the season ends they can get a better position in the draft and target some of those high profile wideouts. a pure athlete like travis hunter would be a nice grab for them. 

mid week percentages update

1          BAL    49.48%          

2          ARI     24.36%          

3          MIN    11.41%          

4          CIN     8.59%

5          WAS   4.59%

6          ATL    3.13%

7          DEN    2.62%

8          KC      2.17%

9          NYJ    1.4%  

10        DAL    0.5%  

looks like kc chiefs no longer in the top 5. that spot was filled in by wash. 

denver joins the list at no.7

dal also makes the list by a few percentages

la and houston no longer majority favorite

thursday morning game day predicted win percentages. just take a look at the nyj a sub .500 with a high win percentage.

BAL    81.5%

ARI     71.8%

WAS   69.9%

MIN    65.3%

NYJ    62.9%

CIN     61.8%

KC      58.8%

DEN    56.5%

ATL    55.8%

DAL    52.9%

game day morning best available odds

BAL    -15.5

ARI     -6

WAS   -7

MIN    -6.5

NYJ    -3

CIN     -4.5

KC      -4

DEN    -3.5

ATL    -3.5

DAL    +3

three sides that stands out are dallas as a dog, ny jets as a short road fave in the early afternoon, and arizona at home vs the east coast team. 

best value bet: arizona -6  

Yea I have cards left and then who I¡¯m leaning at home, if game was on road I¡¯d go Denver, also have vikes but I hate those nfc north rivalry games sh-tty teams seem to step up and play well. 

sunday gameday morning updates. all numbers have mostly remained unchanged. good luck today 

If you didn¡¯t have Baltimore would you take Wash or Minn?