YTD (NFL): 80-66-6 ATS (BIG PLAY!!!: 16-13-1 ATS)
Stuck in mediocrity of late, going 5-5 on Sunday and 1-1 with the BIG PLAYS. Today I'm going to stick with the FH on both games, I think ultimately my Ravens get the W today and I'd like to think they will crush a Texans squad that I find to be pretty mediocre. They do come out strong though, beating the spread 12 out of 15 times this year in the first half. But the Ravens score quite a bit on the road in the FH and while I believe the Texans is the correct side FH, I find both teams SCORE in their respective situations in the FH. So I'm pretty confident on the total going over as the Ravens dont't defend the TE very well and I can see Dalton Schultz having a strong game with Tank Dell missing. FOR SURE Nico Collins is going over 100 yds. against us, might even score.
As for the first Christmas game, more of the same it seems. Both of these teams are perennial postseason squads and so both know one another rather well. And over the last 10 encounters, Pittsburgh has gone 6-4 though its KC who has the edge against the spread going 6-4. So no real advantage there. But, and again I apologize for going to the first half, when you look specifically at the FH this year, Kansas City has scored almost 2 points more on the road in the first half (14 points per FH avg) and the Steelers have scored almost 2 points less on the road in the first half (9 points per FH avg). Given how good KC has been on the road and the day of the week that this game is being played on, I think the safest play is on the FH:
KC FH (PK -115)...BIG PLAY!!!
OVER 23.5 FH (BAL/HOU): Might increase this lets see how the first game goes but mostly b/c the Ravens average 14 points away from home in the FH and the Texans a whopping 17 points in the FH at home this year. That's a boatload above the 24 needed to cash this play. So strong likeliness I go heavier on the wager.
NICO COLLINS OVER 6.5 RECEPTIONS (-130): Extremely rare player prop here and it's heavily juiced so that should tell you how much I believe in this play.
I will be back in a bit to update hoping we are all enjoying Christmas happy holidays to all. Would be great to fatten the pocket book again ala Thanksgiving. As always, do your own research, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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