LA Chargers @ New England Patriots
2-0 ATS betting on the Chargers the past two weeks including taking them against Denver when everybody was expecting a bounce-back spot from the Broncos. I liked them because they are an extremely underrated team, especially when they were 0-4 as they were far better than their record stated. With that said, no way am I backing them here, for a few reasons.
First, their strength is in the trenches, as they are one of 4 teams that have given up less than 10 sacks on the year. This week, they will be missing two members of their offensive line. Second, they are facing the best team in the league prior to a bye. The Patriots, are 8-0 SU, and 7-1 ATS prior to a bye winning by an average of 24.2 points over the last 8 years. Those 8 games include scoring an average of 41.4 points each game. Belichick treats these games VERY seriously, as he likes to head into the bye on a win, while taking those two weeks to get healthy for the 2nd half of the season. Third, the Chargers will be flying out east for an early start in Boston (with a rookie coach) with rain expected. Patriots are used to playing in weather games, but the Chargers are definitely not. And lastly, Pats will be missing Hightower which is huge for their defense, but they have already played without him a few games this season so they are used to it. They will however, be getting their starting cornerback Gilmore back from concussion protocol making their secondary far better. I like the Pats to take care of business here.
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Panthers are not as bad as their loss indicated last week against the Bears as Chicago got lucky with some defensive touchdowns. But I have Tampa as an underrated team and will be backing them to win this game.
Tampa is 2-1 at home so far, with their lone loss being a 5 point loss to the Patriots with a chance to win at the very last second of the game. Tampa is good at home, and will be facing a tired Panthers team playing their 4th road game in 5 weeks. Carolina has double revenge here after a season sweep last year, but they are not in a good spot to get a victory.
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins
Dallas was one of my top plays last week against the Fortyniners, but I love the Redskins in this matchup. First, the Redskins played far better than they looked last week against the Eagles. They were up 10-3 but for two straight drives, they passed the ball on third and 1 failing both times. Each of those punts, led to two touchdown drives by the Eagles. Terrible coaching decisions each time, but I expect them to rely on the run game more at home, against a Dallas team that is 26th against the rush in yards per attempt.
Also, they gave up so many plays on third and long to the Eagles, but will be getting their best cornerback Norman back from injury. The Cowboys have been pretty good at home so far, but they are 2-4 ATS on the road the last 6 games dating back to last season, with their two road covers being against the Cardinals, and the Fortyniners who are a combined 3-11 on the year. Dallas is a run-first team, but they've faced some pretty poor rush defenses so far. Those teams in that category are ranked, #12 #23, #24, #27, and #30th against the rush. The one team in the top 10 they faced was Denver and they got blasted 42-17. Washington is a top 10 team in this league and are #8th against the rush. If they didn't have so many injuries on their oline, this would have been a MONSTER play for me.
- Seahawks -6 (2x)
- Patriots -7 (3x)
- Bucs -1 (4x)
- Redskins +2 (5x)
- Pats -1 / Saints -3 -135 (2x)
- Pats -1.5 / Broncos +14.5 -120 (2x)
- Redskins +8 / Lions +9.5 -120 (2x)
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