NBA = Financial Markets

Original line 242.5 .... Hawks Nets

Line goes down to 225.5 with 6 minutes to go, 185 pts scored ...

Most tell themselves scoring 40 pts in 6 minutes is impossible, you need 10-11 minutes for that - but surprisingly no....

Live line when they start scoring goes up to 227.5 so all the over live bettors who feel there is value here (original line was 242.5 so 227.5 is a bargain) - they jump on the wagon...

Guess what .... ends with 227 pts.

I had a small bet $60 on the o225.5 with odds of 1.90 but still ... 

NBA = Financial Markets

If necessary, they would timeout once, twice and even 6 times with 20 seconds left to adjust the scoring to the script so the side that had bets with fewer people would win ... so if most live bettors took o227.5 they would ensure it wont' go above it .... Young was fouled, if they wanted this to go over they would have called it a foul.

NBA = Financial Markets, just like EUR/USD, GBP/USD ... you can try to guess it but you have to treat it like a financial market ....

Same with Memphis today, opening line 216.5, halftime 220.5 - under was the play, too many games went over-over, over-over, under-under... so it's about time it would go over-under... like an art, I took the u220.5 btw.... could have been smoked by last 3 pointer by Detroit.

When you place a bet you go against a very, very sophisticated system, it's not so simple to beat it.

Any feedback? 

@NBAAddiction18

  My advice is stay away from live betting totals...More often than not it goes OVER....

@davemsh

 If that was true then it'd easily be the best bet on the market, and you could blindly bet overs.

The game itself went under by like 15 points lol.

@davemsh

 Live totals have a huge house edge, but the best time to take them with a proper price is at timeout, when there is a break, never take it during play unless you truly believe it's worth it ... but timeout, end of quarters, things like this give you a better choice, and a choice to make without having the line you like changed in front of you just like that.

Or a better choice - don't gamble at all lol.

I'd be careful about always playing the "better than closer" number on live betting. If I had to guess the value would be on the side that's already winning. Think about teasers, and how even with an extra 4-6 pts in bball it hardly matters. Not enough sample size to ever know for sure. With the juice they charge, they never lose anyways, and you better be using multiple live odds services, sometimes you can find one off by 1-2 points, otherwise you stand no chance paying -115/-125 

@Used2Poker

 What do you mean by "better than closer"?

I should said it different, but like your example with Atl/Bro being a bargain for 227.5 only cause the closing line was 242.5.  I wouldn't be suprised if the value was on under, 227.5. I doubt the books want to get middle, so wouldn't offer a bargain that way. By taking the side that's winnings during the game, you would be taking worse than closing line. 

Again though it comes down to MUST get best available line live betting, never bet the # that is everywhere. Have at least 3 live odds opened to compare, and sometimes can find 1-2 point differences

Its an interesting feature, no doubt. Also can look at foul trouble for stars, coming out of timeouts, or shooting free throws-where other team has time to set defence, etc.   but no doubt about it, nothing about gambling is easy

@NBAAddiction18

 i agree that a lot is shady however for what you wrote to be true i am curious what is your opinion on :

-Do bookies (i don't know how many of them but like 10,20 or 30) have a cartel / group / gang which for certain games tells a few NBA top executives what those executives should tell the refs on which direction to influence the games?? Otherwise how would the NBA / refs know in which direction to influence a game??

-Same thing as above for players or some players.

@yvesxiaoyu

 The players simply execute what they are told to execute, that's why they are paid millions, so they would be like robots, doing exactly what they are told to do. The bookies can't control every single basket, but their goal is to ensure that as many people as possible get screwed from the bet.

The refs are not new people into this, they've been doing it for a long time, their goal is to make it as impossible as possible to guess the correct outcome. You add so many unknonws and randomness into the equation and you create a perfect formula for money making, but it's for the house, not for the gambler.

I like the over, you like the under, we both risk $1,000 - so the bookie gets $2,000 from both of us, in the good case one of us will get paid $900, in a more normal case of live betting this could be $650 - $800 where the bookie from just the two of us made even $350 "free of charge", that's just from 2 bettors...

If they had 2000 bettors betting on both sides, then they made $700,000 alone ... and we're trying to guess who's going to be right lol.

Feels like the hunger games.... although if you like it for the thrill, and I do, then throwing away $5 - $100 seems okay to me, although maybe some would prefer to avoid it...

Even betting big only "once", $5,000 on one game, can be very risky, there are just too many unknowns in a game...

One NCAAF game went 26.5 live line, so bettors realized it's going under, was 3-0 maybe live at halftime, the thing is it quickly went to 25.5 and 24.5 and it ended with exactly 26 points.

Did the players aim to do that? Who knows.... but with all the industry around it, don't be surprised if things do happen under this swept rug.

when like draftkings start moving a total line a lot within a few minutes of a game I just stay away don't trust these shady books shady vegas