One doesn't need a PhD to win at poker.
RAMS M.L.
I grew up in Philly where kids start playing pools and betting games probably in grade school. I did. I also got into poker back in the early nineties and played in AC full time for 13 years. I was a steady in the 40 - 80 stud game at the Taj for two years straight and I probably won 150k in that game, and had another 75k in tournament wins on top.
I had money like that 3 or 4 times in my 13 year run, recreational gambling always killed me whether it was sports, or craps, or something else.
I've met all types of people from all over the world, and there are some that can do it, and some that pretend to do it. I played cards with people everyday that thought they were Pro level players, but they were the game in reality. Poker Players always rate their play higher than they should.
I've been off the gambling scene since 2008. I got married to a girl I had dated for ten years, and since we were both in our thirties it was recommended to us to go for IVF treatments if we wanted a better chance at having kids. Well, on our third try we had triplets. Thanks a lot Doc. Nice doing business with you. See you at the country club next week? Are you f'ing serious? Needless to say the last three years and a half years has been long - like Labor Camps in North Korea Long, but I wouldn't trade them for anything in the world.
What was I gonna do for money? I was a gambler my whole life, I didn't know how to do anything else, but I didn't have the money for poker, especially not to play big enough to support my family. The only form of gambling that I knew I could do cheaply was sports betting. I could get down on a game for $25 when I wanted, even if I didn't have the money - I've been a good enough customer.
There I was staring at a computer screen of football stats from the USAToday, trying to decide who to put this $25 bet on, that's when I had a realization. Am I gonna really be able to go stat hunting and pick winners at a 60% clip over the course of years? No. I'm not, you're not, and none of those guys who made videos of themselves behind their desk describing their handicapping systems will either. You can't come to a historically significant conclusion that way because that's how Vegas makes the lines. They do all the stat hunting that they can on a game, they look at the pass def vs the pass off and the average yard per rush stats. They know injuries and how serious they are and who had a good practice and who did not. How is the average handicapper going to out handicap Vegas' crack team of prob and stat guys as well as street smart gamblers? They're not. Being a world class handicapper is like batting fourth for the Yankees. A lot of people want to do it, but only few ever get to do. It's like being Tom Cruise or Julia Roberts. Being an old time handicapper that could use the research method and come out with 60% winners is a dying breed.
I was at the computer thinking how bad I wish I could just peek at a real pro handicapper's paper and see who they have circled. Then it hit me. Finding a pro handicapper that is going to let you in on what he is moving on is like finding a lost chip on the casino floor. But what if you got to look at the paper of some handicappers that you knew didn't often choose the right side, wouldn't that say just as much?
I recruited 20 people of family and friends to make fantasy sports bets for me nightly. Everyone had to make the same 4 bets that started at 500 and went to 2000. Each night I had a chart of 80 selections (20 x 4) to look at. I could see who liked what teams and how much they liked them. The team with the highest Frequency on the chart lost 59% of the time. The team with the lowest frequency on the chart covered the spread 72% of the time. I kid you not. The low Frequency team went on a run of 22 - 4 ATS in 26 trials. As I moved along every +10 unit increase to my bankroll, I crept my bet up and up. I won 56 units in 2012, my bet started at $25/play. By the end of 2012 my bet was up to $150/game and three different bookies had quit me.
I let a close friend in on the data, who I knew had money and is a gambler. In 2013 we started with a par value bet of $300/game. So far for the year we are up 62 units and are base bet is now $1,000 which is where we capped it. My friend lives in Vegas so he places the bets for us. My friend is putting up all the money to build the software for the system (I had been doing it all on a spreadsheet). We are patent pending right now. My friend wants to either sell picks to the public or license the software out. I don't know if I want to be in that business, selling sports picks, it is a sleazy types business that is more marketing than it is handicapping. The new wave is all software handicapping models, but all they did is teach the computer how to do the research method. The research method will not offer up sound and steady advice. Why? Teams change, players change, owners change, rules change, weather changes. How could stuff that held true for the last five years, still hold true today? They can't and they won't. If Road Dogs who were +3 to +6.5 went 44% ATS the last four years, what does that mean for the Road Dogs of today? Not a whole lot.
My theory is that the only thing that is consistent enough to measure is the handicapping abilities of the bettor. That is a constant. People bet how they bet, unless they buy into some system that will not change. My software will look for re-occurring patterns among focus groups of sports bettors.
If being a great handicapper is rare, then being a poor handicapper must not be. My question was can't their be some system built around the information of the uniformed? The answer I found was yes. A very big yes.
I told my friend that if we did end up selling the information to the public, it would have to be super cheap, like super, duper cheap because I want $25 bettors to be able to afford it and turn themselves into $500/game beats that is a Bookie killer. I hate bookies and sports books. I'd like nothing more than see them all go broke. I do that by turning small time bettors into high roller destroyers. I want there to be lines of people cashing tickets in Vegas after the games are over. I want the bettors to get all their money back.
You ever wonder why most sports consultants only go after the whale bettors? Because they are the ones that could afford to pay $500/week for the service. This way when the guy quits in a month they still got him for 2 grand. They don't care about the $25 bettor.
Anyway. Good Luck to all.
I grew up in Philly where kids start playing pools and betting games probably in grade school. I did. I also got into poker back in the early nineties and played in AC full time for 13 years. I was a steady in the 40 - 80 stud game at the Taj for two years straight and I probably won 150k in that game, and had another 75k in tournament wins on top.
I had money like that 3 or 4 times in my 13 year run, recreational gambling always killed me whether it was sports, or craps, or something else.
I've met all types of people from all over the world, and there are some that can do it, and some that pretend to do it. I played cards with people everyday that thought they were Pro level players, but they were the game in reality. Poker Players always rate their play higher than they should.
I've been off the gambling scene since 2008. I got married to a girl I had dated for ten years, and since we were both in our thirties it was recommended to us to go for IVF treatments if we wanted a better chance at having kids. Well, on our third try we had triplets. Thanks a lot Doc. Nice doing business with you. See you at the country club next week? Are you f'ing serious? Needless to say the last three years and a half years has been long - like Labor Camps in North Korea Long, but I wouldn't trade them for anything in the world.
What was I gonna do for money? I was a gambler my whole life, I didn't know how to do anything else, but I didn't have the money for poker, especially not to play big enough to support my family. The only form of gambling that I knew I could do cheaply was sports betting. I could get down on a game for $25 when I wanted, even if I didn't have the money - I've been a good enough customer.
There I was staring at a computer screen of football stats from the USAToday, trying to decide who to put this $25 bet on, that's when I had a realization. Am I gonna really be able to go stat hunting and pick winners at a 60% clip over the course of years? No. I'm not, you're not, and none of those guys who made videos of themselves behind their desk describing their handicapping systems will either. You can't come to a historically significant conclusion that way because that's how Vegas makes the lines. They do all the stat hunting that they can on a game, they look at the pass def vs the pass off and the average yard per rush stats. They know injuries and how serious they are and who had a good practice and who did not. How is the average handicapper going to out handicap Vegas' crack team of prob and stat guys as well as street smart gamblers? They're not. Being a world class handicapper is like batting fourth for the Yankees. A lot of people want to do it, but only few ever get to do. It's like being Tom Cruise or Julia Roberts. Being an old time handicapper that could use the research method and come out with 60% winners is a dying breed.
I was at the computer thinking how bad I wish I could just peek at a real pro handicapper's paper and see who they have circled. Then it hit me. Finding a pro handicapper that is going to let you in on what he is moving on is like finding a lost chip on the casino floor. But what if you got to look at the paper of some handicappers that you knew didn't often choose the right side, wouldn't that say just as much?
I recruited 20 people of family and friends to make fantasy sports bets for me nightly. Everyone had to make the same 4 bets that started at 500 and went to 2000. Each night I had a chart of 80 selections (20 x 4) to look at. I could see who liked what teams and how much they liked them. The team with the highest Frequency on the chart lost 59% of the time. The team with the lowest frequency on the chart covered the spread 72% of the time. I kid you not. The low Frequency team went on a run of 22 - 4 ATS in 26 trials. As I moved along every +10 unit increase to my bankroll, I crept my bet up and up. I won 56 units in 2012, my bet started at $25/play. By the end of 2012 my bet was up to $150/game and three different bookies had quit me.
I let a close friend in on the data, who I knew had money and is a gambler. In 2013 we started with a par value bet of $300/game. So far for the year we are up 62 units and are base bet is now $1,000 which is where we capped it. My friend lives in Vegas so he places the bets for us. My friend is putting up all the money to build the software for the system (I had been doing it all on a spreadsheet). We are patent pending right now. My friend wants to either sell picks to the public or license the software out. I don't know if I want to be in that business, selling sports picks, it is a sleazy types business that is more marketing than it is handicapping. The new wave is all software handicapping models, but all they did is teach the computer how to do the research method. The research method will not offer up sound and steady advice. Why? Teams change, players change, owners change, rules change, weather changes. How could stuff that held true for the last five years, still hold true today? They can't and they won't. If Road Dogs who were +3 to +6.5 went 44% ATS the last four years, what does that mean for the Road Dogs of today? Not a whole lot.
My theory is that the only thing that is consistent enough to measure is the handicapping abilities of the bettor. That is a constant. People bet how they bet, unless they buy into some system that will not change. My software will look for re-occurring patterns among focus groups of sports bettors.
If being a great handicapper is rare, then being a poor handicapper must not be. My question was can't their be some system built around the information of the uniformed? The answer I found was yes. A very big yes.
I told my friend that if we did end up selling the information to the public, it would have to be super cheap, like super, duper cheap because I want $25 bettors to be able to afford it and turn themselves into $500/game beats that is a Bookie killer. I hate bookies and sports books. I'd like nothing more than see them all go broke. I do that by turning small time bettors into high roller destroyers. I want there to be lines of people cashing tickets in Vegas after the games are over. I want the bettors to get all their money back.
You ever wonder why most sports consultants only go after the whale bettors? Because they are the ones that could afford to pay $500/week for the service. This way when the guy quits in a month they still got him for 2 grand. They don't care about the $25 bettor.
Anyway. Good Luck to all.
Very informative/interesting post. Thanks for the read.
I grew up in Philly where kids start playing pools and betting games probably in grade school. I did. I also got into poker back in the early nineties and played in AC full time for 13 years. I was a steady in the 40 - 80 stud game at the Taj for two years straight and I probably won 150k in that game, and had another 75k in tournament wins on top.
I had money like that 3 or 4 times in my 13 year run, recreational gambling always killed me whether it was sports, or craps, or something else.
I've met all types of people from all over the world, and there are some that can do it, and some that pretend to do it. I played cards with people everyday that thought they were Pro level players, but they were the game in reality. Poker Players always rate their play higher than they should.
I've been off the gambling scene since 2008. I got married to a girl I had dated for ten years, and since we were both in our thirties it was recommended to us to go for IVF treatments if we wanted a better chance at having kids. Well, on our third try we had triplets. Thanks a lot Doc. Nice doing business with you. See you at the country club next week? Are you f'ing serious? Needless to say the last three years and a half years has been long - like Labor Camps in North Korea Long, but I wouldn't trade them for anything in the world.
What was I gonna do for money? I was a gambler my whole life, I didn't know how to do anything else, but I didn't have the money for poker, especially not to play big enough to support my family. The only form of gambling that I knew I could do cheaply was sports betting. I could get down on a game for $25 when I wanted, even if I didn't have the money - I've been a good enough customer.
There I was staring at a computer screen of football stats from the USAToday, trying to decide who to put this $25 bet on, that's when I had a realization. Am I gonna really be able to go stat hunting and pick winners at a 60% clip over the course of years? No. I'm not, you're not, and none of those guys who made videos of themselves behind their desk describing their handicapping systems will either. You can't come to a historically significant conclusion that way because that's how Vegas makes the lines. They do all the stat hunting that they can on a game, they look at the pass def vs the pass off and the average yard per rush stats. They know injuries and how serious they are and who had a good practice and who did not. How is the average handicapper going to out handicap Vegas' crack team of prob and stat guys as well as street smart gamblers? They're not. Being a world class handicapper is like batting fourth for the Yankees. A lot of people want to do it, but only few ever get to do. It's like being Tom Cruise or Julia Roberts. Being an old time handicapper that could use the research method and come out with 60% winners is a dying breed.
I was at the computer thinking how bad I wish I could just peek at a real pro handicapper's paper and see who they have circled. Then it hit me. Finding a pro handicapper that is going to let you in on what he is moving on is like finding a lost chip on the casino floor. But what if you got to look at the paper of some handicappers that you knew didn't often choose the right side, wouldn't that say just as much?
I recruited 20 people of family and friends to make fantasy sports bets for me nightly. Everyone had to make the same 4 bets that started at 500 and went to 2000. Each night I had a chart of 80 selections (20 x 4) to look at. I could see who liked what teams and how much they liked them. The team with the highest Frequency on the chart lost 59% of the time. The team with the lowest frequency on the chart covered the spread 72% of the time. I kid you not. The low Frequency team went on a run of 22 - 4 ATS in 26 trials. As I moved along every +10 unit increase to my bankroll, I crept my bet up and up. I won 56 units in 2012, my bet started at $25/play. By the end of 2012 my bet was up to $150/game and three different bookies had quit me.
I let a close friend in on the data, who I knew had money and is a gambler. In 2013 we started with a par value bet of $300/game. So far for the year we are up 62 units and are base bet is now $1,000 which is where we capped it. My friend lives in Vegas so he places the bets for us. My friend is putting up all the money to build the software for the system (I had been doing it all on a spreadsheet). We are patent pending right now. My friend wants to either sell picks to the public or license the software out. I don't know if I want to be in that business, selling sports picks, it is a sleazy types business that is more marketing than it is handicapping. The new wave is all software handicapping models, but all they did is teach the computer how to do the research method. The research method will not offer up sound and steady advice. Why? Teams change, players change, owners change, rules change, weather changes. How could stuff that held true for the last five years, still hold true today? They can't and they won't. If Road Dogs who were +3 to +6.5 went 44% ATS the last four years, what does that mean for the Road Dogs of today? Not a whole lot.
My theory is that the only thing that is consistent enough to measure is the handicapping abilities of the bettor. That is a constant. People bet how they bet, unless they buy into some system that will not change. My software will look for re-occurring patterns among focus groups of sports bettors.
If being a great handicapper is rare, then being a poor handicapper must not be. My question was can't their be some system built around the information of the uniformed? The answer I found was yes. A very big yes.
I told my friend that if we did end up selling the information to the public, it would have to be super cheap, like super, duper cheap because I want $25 bettors to be able to afford it and turn themselves into $500/game beats that is a Bookie killer. I hate bookies and sports books. I'd like nothing more than see them all go broke. I do that by turning small time bettors into high roller destroyers. I want there to be lines of people cashing tickets in Vegas after the games are over. I want the bettors to get all their money back.
You ever wonder why most sports consultants only go after the whale bettors? Because they are the ones that could afford to pay $500/week for the service. This way when the guy quits in a month they still got him for 2 grand. They don't care about the $25 bettor.
Anyway. Good Luck to all.
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