The Fed at this point doesn't care about the rate, they understand we are living under a zombie economy condition. What they care about is that their member banks increase their reserves, that's what the new "rate hike" is all about, its not really a rate hike. What is is in reality is a version of stealth QE where the banks get paid money to lend at the make believe floor of 25 basis points and earn intraday doing that.
If the Fed was really serious about a legitimate rate hike they'd do it properly, which is drain the assets on their balance sheet and they would need to do a lot of draining for it to even move considering how much liquidity is in the market.
Basically what happened during the "announcement" is that Yellen said she was going to give the banks more money (12B if you believe the latest headline lol), framed it as a rate hike and the media bots bought into it hook line and sinker. And Yellen, running her fat mouth, set up a secular bear market for the foreseeable future in stocks.
The Fed is not doing a damn thing to help the economy, period and doesn't give a shit to. And if you sat them in a room and had a private conversation they would tell you straight up. That they believe its fiscal policy (US Gov) to step up to the plate and do something about it. What they won't tell you is who the Fed hopes the US Gov gets indebted to when they spend that money. Themselves.
The American people are on their own... buy shiny, barbaric, pet rocks and volatility if you haven't already. The next part of the ride will be MORE than a little bumpy.
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
The Fed at this point doesn't care about the rate, they understand we are living under a zombie economy condition. What they care about is that their member banks increase their reserves, that's what the new "rate hike" is all about, its not really a rate hike. What is is in reality is a version of stealth QE where the banks get paid money to lend at the make believe floor of 25 basis points and earn intraday doing that.
If the Fed was really serious about a legitimate rate hike they'd do it properly, which is drain the assets on their balance sheet and they would need to do a lot of draining for it to even move considering how much liquidity is in the market.
Basically what happened during the "announcement" is that Yellen said she was going to give the banks more money (12B if you believe the latest headline lol), framed it as a rate hike and the media bots bought into it hook line and sinker. And Yellen, running her fat mouth, set up a secular bear market for the foreseeable future in stocks.
The Fed is not doing a damn thing to help the economy, period and doesn't give a shit to. And if you sat them in a room and had a private conversation they would tell you straight up. That they believe its fiscal policy (US Gov) to step up to the plate and do something about it. What they won't tell you is who the Fed hopes the US Gov gets indebted to when they spend that money. Themselves.
The American people are on their own... buy shiny, barbaric, pet rocks and volatility if you haven't already. The next part of the ride will be MORE than a little bumpy.
I think the FED is worried they have no recourse if the world economy goes south and we also start to weaken..this is a test to see how the market and economy react and so far it isnt all that bad.
The way they ramped the market the last few years I expected things to reverse stronger especially with the energy sector getting hit and the credit markets also weakening.
If the markets do not get hit hard, the FED will keep raising until it starts to hurt because they have little they can really do if things get bad currently.
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I dont see it like that..
I think the FED is worried they have no recourse if the world economy goes south and we also start to weaken..this is a test to see how the market and economy react and so far it isnt all that bad.
The way they ramped the market the last few years I expected things to reverse stronger especially with the energy sector getting hit and the credit markets also weakening.
If the markets do not get hit hard, the FED will keep raising until it starts to hurt because they have little they can really do if things get bad currently.
cappers, I respect your opinion a long time poster here -- but if credit markets continue to unravel, and the junk bond/high yield trash infects other "safe" segments of debt markets, you will see the Fed LOWER rates right back to zero and then QE 5 will dwarf all the others combined...
the endgame is already here, very few see it besides chartists and those that watch EVERYTHING.
the currency war has been going on for some time, emerging markets are already toast, gov't numbers/data here in the US and especially in China are FAR worse than are being reported.
almost time to sell everything not nailed down brother... when the music stops, the Piper expects to be paid.
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cappers, I respect your opinion a long time poster here -- but if credit markets continue to unravel, and the junk bond/high yield trash infects other "safe" segments of debt markets, you will see the Fed LOWER rates right back to zero and then QE 5 will dwarf all the others combined...
the endgame is already here, very few see it besides chartists and those that watch EVERYTHING.
the currency war has been going on for some time, emerging markets are already toast, gov't numbers/data here in the US and especially in China are FAR worse than are being reported.
almost time to sell everything not nailed down brother... when the music stops, the Piper expects to be paid.
cappers, I respect your opinion a long time poster here -- but if credit markets continue to unravel, and the junk bond/high yield trash infects other "safe" segments of debt markets, you will see the Fed LOWER rates right back to zero and then QE 5 will dwarf all the others combined...
the endgame is already here, very few see it besides chartists and those that watch EVERYTHING.
the currency war has been going on for some time, emerging markets are already toast, gov't numbers/data here in the US and especially in China are FAR worse than are being reported.
almost time to sell everything not nailed down brother... when the music stops, the Piper expects to be paid.
I could believe this is true however the fed is not like any other private bank. It prints the money everyone in world accepts as legal tender. It has no government over sight and holds most of the debt held by us government and most of Americas governments, although the world bank and imf are vying for position it all hinges on wall street. global production of goods durable and expendable as well as the dictation of more oil being pumped than being used in energy markets would have collapsed the oil driven market here in ny and subsequently globally . The three biggest global banks are in a break even policy the continueing deflation of the commodity metal markets = a strengthening of the federal reserve note.
stating the fed could flounder without an impeding natural apocryphal event is not possible in opinion. saying for the next generational cycle the need for the federal reserve note or the ability for the us government to not be able to physically protect this bank is not realistic.
Unless serious policy changes bring about a us central bank and bank notes and the us government brings to change a cycling of currency old notes are brought to zero and only new ones printed it is impossible to break the federal reserve, the last time such policy was thought of was 1963 and the orchestrator lay dead in Dallas.
again the simplistic reality of this bank is production of the notes did number 123456789 10 printing go down without parts to fix it or paper to feed or ink to grease it than there is really no way the fed could ever run out of money.
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Quote Originally Posted by EndTheFed:
cappers, I respect your opinion a long time poster here -- but if credit markets continue to unravel, and the junk bond/high yield trash infects other "safe" segments of debt markets, you will see the Fed LOWER rates right back to zero and then QE 5 will dwarf all the others combined...
the endgame is already here, very few see it besides chartists and those that watch EVERYTHING.
the currency war has been going on for some time, emerging markets are already toast, gov't numbers/data here in the US and especially in China are FAR worse than are being reported.
almost time to sell everything not nailed down brother... when the music stops, the Piper expects to be paid.
I could believe this is true however the fed is not like any other private bank. It prints the money everyone in world accepts as legal tender. It has no government over sight and holds most of the debt held by us government and most of Americas governments, although the world bank and imf are vying for position it all hinges on wall street. global production of goods durable and expendable as well as the dictation of more oil being pumped than being used in energy markets would have collapsed the oil driven market here in ny and subsequently globally . The three biggest global banks are in a break even policy the continueing deflation of the commodity metal markets = a strengthening of the federal reserve note.
stating the fed could flounder without an impeding natural apocryphal event is not possible in opinion. saying for the next generational cycle the need for the federal reserve note or the ability for the us government to not be able to physically protect this bank is not realistic.
Unless serious policy changes bring about a us central bank and bank notes and the us government brings to change a cycling of currency old notes are brought to zero and only new ones printed it is impossible to break the federal reserve, the last time such policy was thought of was 1963 and the orchestrator lay dead in Dallas.
again the simplistic reality of this bank is production of the notes did number 123456789 10 printing go down without parts to fix it or paper to feed or ink to grease it than there is really no way the fed could ever run out of money.
meltdown has begun, I will come back when we take out the AUG lows... sell every bounce now -- especially sharp ones that last more than a day or two. Even better, short the indices too.
Fed may put rates back on zero before Valentine's Day if the markets drop fast enough... I am shorter than a fat man's wiener and have been for some time, but long volatility. Bears are about to get fed a banquet that may make up for the past 7 years.
use caution bulls... last warning.
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meltdown has begun, I will come back when we take out the AUG lows... sell every bounce now -- especially sharp ones that last more than a day or two. Even better, short the indices too.
Fed may put rates back on zero before Valentine's Day if the markets drop fast enough... I am shorter than a fat man's wiener and have been for some time, but long volatility. Bears are about to get fed a banquet that may make up for the past 7 years.
meltdown has begun, I will come back when we take out the AUG lows... sell every bounce now -- especially sharp ones that last more than a day or two. Even better, short the indices too.
Fed may put rates back on zero before Valentine's Day if the markets drop fast enough... I am shorter than a fat man's wiener and have been for some time, but long volatility. Bears are about to get fed a banquet that may make up for the past 7 years.
use caution bulls... last warning.
I agree. I'm on TVIX since about 6 bucks. I think this one is for real. I see a 20-40 percent drop.
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Quote Originally Posted by EndTheFed:
meltdown has begun, I will come back when we take out the AUG lows... sell every bounce now -- especially sharp ones that last more than a day or two. Even better, short the indices too.
Fed may put rates back on zero before Valentine's Day if the markets drop fast enough... I am shorter than a fat man's wiener and have been for some time, but long volatility. Bears are about to get fed a banquet that may make up for the past 7 years.
use caution bulls... last warning.
I agree. I'm on TVIX since about 6 bucks. I think this one is for real. I see a 20-40 percent drop.
I think this is just a precursor of more significant downturns here in 2016. Everybody has a different idea of making money in a downturn environment, as witnessed by previous posts.
It is moments like these that I am satisfied to keep a significant cushion of cash for disposal for thinking 'long'.
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I think this is just a precursor of more significant downturns here in 2016. Everybody has a different idea of making money in a downturn environment, as witnessed by previous posts.
It is moments like these that I am satisfied to keep a significant cushion of cash for disposal for thinking 'long'.
Rush -- this is 'rollmaestro' here (old handle)... don't get too aggressive buying anything (except maybe puts) right now. The WHOLE ENTIRE rise from the 2009 lows has been fueled by cheap $, buybacks, and nothing else... it's a mirage.
The decline has only begun buddy... be smart.
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Rush -- this is 'rollmaestro' here (old handle)... don't get too aggressive buying anything (except maybe puts) right now. The WHOLE ENTIRE rise from the 2009 lows has been fueled by cheap $, buybacks, and nothing else... it's a mirage.
I will be interested in buying SPY calls at SPX 1550... not before. Until then we are short betas/select financials/IBB (biotech ETF) and long volatility... it's been a great start to the year, we just covered an SPY put position and an IWM put position yesterday (Wednesday) a little off the lows, and are looking to re-enter at longer dated expiry's around-the-money before Friday's end. That's what we are up to at least...
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rush
I will be interested in buying SPY calls at SPX 1550... not before. Until then we are short betas/select financials/IBB (biotech ETF) and long volatility... it's been a great start to the year, we just covered an SPY put position and an IWM put position yesterday (Wednesday) a little off the lows, and are looking to re-enter at longer dated expiry's around-the-money before Friday's end. That's what we are up to at least...
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