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Some disagreement over SNTA trial results

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Posts: 13

jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 1, 2013 - 7:18 PM ET #1

Synta Pharma got trial results that appeared less than impressive even though still positive; from there they have nevertheless decided to move on to phase 3. The market slaughtered this news and cut the stock in half. Since then billionaire pharma investor Bruce Kovner has been dropping million dollar bombs all over it and Dr. Safi R. Bahcall Ph.D., 44
Co-Founder, Chief Exec. Officer, Pres and Director has been throwing down whatever he can afford. It is short an incredible 40% of float. I got in at 4 last week, now at 5. Who you gonna believe? Shorty or the billionaire and the CEO. Guess you've figured out where my $s are cause that's the way I roll. Be interested in anyone else's opinion. Your welcome to play it, may take awhile, or there could be a little squeezin goin on;just don't go calling me a pumper.

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Jul. 1, 2013 - 8:24 PM ET #2

if i read it right - there only can be two scenarios played out here:

1. bruce kovner tries to trigger the price up by buying the stocks when they are down and that way signalling the public that there is more than meets the eye.

2. bruce kovner really knows something others don't and is seizing the opportunity and buys it cheap (comparably).

pharmaceuticals are biggest mafia in the world and see in each and everyone of us a potential customer for their medicine as long as they can keep inventing diseases and may be he knows what the next one is

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 1, 2013 - 8:48 PM ET #3

The drug, ganestblibltgp or whatever,seems legit and it's for lung cancer, one of those, we don't really have any good drug for this, things. The issue, as always ,seems to be can they get the FDA approval. Bruce and Safi seem to think it's a good bet. Everybody else is saying "no way" Bruce can afford to play, bluff call or whatever; he'll still make money. Safi is a different story, he's got his life on this. He could just be an optimist but for his sake I hope he's playin a real good hand.

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Jul. 1, 2013 - 9:46 PM ET #4

i am very much in doubt tow enthusiast company can survive all the big sharks in the water who most probably are spending millions on top of millions of dollars on industrial spying and have enough spine to pull the trigger if fda approves it or even influence fda not to approve it until they dont have the drug manufacturing capacity. sell if youre holding

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 1, 2013 - 11:08 PM ET #5

Ah, that's where your billionaire comes in. Influence. I don't know, I'd probably take the quick 30-40% gain off my entry at 4[IF it goes up some more, you can't know] just because there are always other things out there; but my guess is , it's a long play big money stock. I might not be there to see it.
There's always got to be the one that got away.

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wallstreetcappers

Covers Linesmen

Joined: Feb, 2003

Posts: 56778

Posted: Jul. 2, 2013 - 12:29 AM ET #6

Biotechs are either a home run or a strike out.

I've owned several biotechs that I sold way too early and went to the stratosphere while others didnt make it and bombed.

I owned MEDX at less than 5 bucks a share, it was one of my first covered call stocks back when I was in college..I used to trade covered calls and I never will forget those first few..now that many years later it is trading at 130 today.

I also owned a stock, VVUS back a long while back, it went up big, back down, back up..

Also owned MED, a diet stock a few yrs ago, gave up on it before it ran and missed out on a 4-5 bagger there, missed out on a 10 bagger on FSLR etc etc..

Know that a biotech you are really gambling, make sure they have cash long enough to cover losses for years without diluting the common holder.

A long shot I owned and made money on but that is now back down is CRDC..interesting stock in the same space as ISRG, they make products that allow surgeons to do their work with lower cost, faster recovery and lower risk..but they are also grappling with getting approval for their product.

Good luck..

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 5, 2013 - 6:34 PM ET #7

That's why short interest is so concentrated in biotech, most fail. That's why I like following billionaire's with a long history in biotech. They didn't become billionaire's by not paying attention and walking into a short ambush. Sometimes the shorts are wrong or counting on manipulation and they can be a good thing; if a major player confronts them directly you get the added value of a potential short squeeze. Other times [like this one] the billionaire steps in after the shorts have done their work and picks up a good thing at a great discount and leftover shorts still may be forced to cover. I've been watching ISRG especially when they were called out by Gyno's but I haven't seen any signals that a breakout is about to occur. The VVUS is just to much of a public play on fatties, hard to separate the hype. What I like is OPK. Frost is experienced and more of a player than Dr. I think that's Jane Hsiao , PHD . She's the research genius. Always looks risky taking a biotech that has yet to show a profit but with Frost showing he's willing to put a billion dollars of his own money into the stock at the same market prices you and I pay; it inspires confidence. I also like the fact that as he acquires far flung companies and product pipelines he's building an international distribution chain .That's one I'll stick with until I'm rich or broke.

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 6, 2013 - 1:14 PM ET #8

CRDC looks interesting. All the insider trading seems to be coming from Sutter Hill a Palo Alto VC co that also backs THLD MATR CORT and other largely biotech co's. .Most of which haven't been doing so hot. I'm not sure how these buys are structured but I don't think it's open market That's biotechs though. Even the good companies can stink it up pretty good before taking off. Like you said Wallstreet, all or nothing, to the moon or just sucks the life out of you with a continual dribble down.
Choose wisely.

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 9, 2013 - 11:20 AM ET #9

and there's your break out for SNTA. 5.15 was resistance level. Seems like most of the time when the big boys and insiders jump in you get a breakout within a month. This is the second break out for SNTA from the bottom at 4.

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Jul. 29, 2013 - 10:54 PM ET #10

"I todaso, I F'n todaso!" Ricky, from Trailer Park Boys. Lesson learned in Vegas. In a capitalist world a billionaire is almost never wrong. If he is he changes things around until he's right.

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jebaum

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2013

Posts: 297

Posted: Aug. 1, 2013 - 2:41 PM ET #11

shorts bite back,up to 7.85, now back to 6.10. What's next, revenge of the Bruce? Think I'll hold awhile and see how this plays out.Real battleground stock, if your into that whole daytrading thing.

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SportsMavin

Banned

Joined: Dec, 2012

Posts: 5295

Posted: Aug. 1, 2013 - 3:48 PM ET #12

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phixer

Banned

Joined: Jul, 2012

Posts: 4174

Posted: Aug. 9, 2013 - 10:23 PM ET #13

it is not nice to tell lies about people you dont know mr jerkbaum. after you lie once anything you say after is under suspicion

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Some disagreement over SNTA trial results

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