I think oil is in a sweet spot now, and believe $40-$50 is its long-term range. Major oil integrators will continue to scale back , as the state-run oil industries in Saudia Arabia & Iran continue to duke it out for market share. Saudia Arabia is hell-bent on not letting Iran take market share , as it comes off sanctions and increased to 4mpbd. U.S. part of the group scaling back, and has already dropped some 0.5mbpd so far this year.
So, the market is still awash in oil, but I don't expect the global supply to increase significantly from here.
On the other side, global demand is weak , with Europe & China in a quandary.
So Let's re-cap on the whole commodity of oil... I think the good news for consumers is that $100 / barrel is a thing of the past, at least for the next few years. And You can thank the belated Aubrey McClendon for the renaissance in the oil/gas industry the last 10 years. It really is that significant. The very man that helped orchestrate the movement of the 'Sonics to the OK Thunder in basketball , is the very man that helped orchestrate the biggest renaissance in oil exploration in the last 10-20 years.
Rest in peace Aubrey... Today's cheap oil is due in large part to your innovative success in oil drilling techniques.
On the Financial side of the equation, I will agree with you, Wall. But there is little dispute on how much impact he had on the drilling front.
The oil cartel has lost much of its clout because of this man. This renaissance in U.S. production led by McClendon has created U.S as a swing producer.
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