Hindenburg Omen...your thoughts?

copy and paste link:
https://www.thestreet.com/story/10835851/1/hindenburg-omen-is-a-stock-market-crash-imminent.html

market up on declining volume

So....another crash eh??  Great!!

market up on declining volume

more from Paul Farrell quoting people like long term bond manager Bill Gross, economist Peter Morici and others.....

"Warning: More bad news ahead. Welcome to a bleak second half 2010, worse for 2011"

ref: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-going-to-get-worse-a-whole-lot-worse-2010-08-17

I don't know.  Kinda hard for me to see another crash.

There are too many futures players for me to see a BIG crash, traders are buying these futures on any down day..it has been the same crap, down open and buy the futures on dips and the market closes usually near the high on the day.

You have to spook the speculators and freeze the credit markets to have any crash..

All a bunch of manipulated BS.  Where is the SP now, 1040ish?  With the hideous world fundamentals, I have an easier time valuing the SP at 0.00 than 1040.  No joke.

SP 500 close to 1100.  What a joke!  Look at the debt all over the world.  Unemployment close to 20%----in the USA!  Tenuous geopolitical situation, ie Israel, N Korea.  Environment in a shambles.  Most off the charts piss-poor leadership that even the most ardent pessimist couldn't imagine on his worst day of gloom and doom!!!!!!!

Aside from the fact that the peanut gallery is totally negative on the future, is there any one other single reason that anyone in here can tell me why I should think "the market" is going to go sustainably higher?  Hahahahahahaha.  You can't!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

SP 500 is headed to zero point zero.  All retirement accounts and social security will be declared null and void. 

 

CC,

The tape keeps saying otherwise..they buy back the market almost every single day.

With the way futures markets are manipulating the cash markets, this could go on and on and on..a little futures purchase moves the cash markets with arbitrage players are in the game and liquidity traders etc.

Let's face it.  You know you are f---ed as a country (sorry, Tony Dungy) when you get your entertainment jollies from the Kim Kardashian Show, you listen to music by some dummy named 50 cent, and  the best invention you can come up with is twitter.

No hope, except maybe a natural disaster of mammoth proportions.

Better get on your knees and pray to nature.

WSC-

Seriously, how long can this bear market rally continue?  You think this stuff lasts past this fall?  I can't see it, man.

Wall,

  PS

CC,
You always crack me up and I enjoy your commentary. With the USG and the FED and banks having interests in the USM, I don't see how we hit the targets you suggest. Are we way over valued? I say we totally are but there are forces that will protect the market and when the HFT guys are banks and the cash is cheap, returns for earnings are VERY dependant on trading earnings I just cannot find who the net sellers will be. To have the market go down much there is either a need for an event to take the market by surprise or enough sellers to offset the buyers. Hedgies, banks, HFT's are long the market, so where are the sellers?
Vermeer, I didn't sy that right. We are thinking the same thing here..market participants meaning the HFT guys, it is how banks and hedgies are making returns and to shake them all loose will be tough, I think the percentage of action from HFT's might even be higher than what you suggest.
Lastly, I was thinking today about this theory that started the thread and I think it is false because of the way the lows are being made. The lows are being made on YEARLY charts, but those yearly charts reflect the HUGE move off the 2009 lows, so really the lows aren't THAT low. I would wager if you extended the time frame for this theory to a 24 month chart that none of it happens, to me based on the lows being off only 1 year charts I find little value off the theory now. In the past maybe the market was in a trading range and it might hold more importance and relevance?

Sorry for spacing, I typed that from my BB phone.

Wall,

Vermeer,

It is obvious to me that the markets are tossed around with futures and HFT traders..these 1-2% intra-day swings are just not how markets act, to drop and then move the exact opposite way with zero news on light volume..well that is what we have and it is what we will keep having.

Banks and fundies are reliant on these futures trading profits, they work together between cash positions and futures, so you can go long the cash when the market is down, pump the futures up leveraged on the cheap, sell out when the arb guys buy the cash and make money in all directions.

Look at today..down what 60 pts on the DOW early, seems that we often start down..then reverse it up 60 pts, then end up pretty much flat..one can go long, short, long and really have no net position.

Who with any bankroll stands in the way of these manipulators?

I know you love this, but these actions are signs of cheating, opaque and dishonest market manipulators..and it shows you that our economic model is not capitalistic, it is full of slimy, disgusting profiteers who hide, leverage and cheat to get a few extra cents and big bonuses.

So who will step in that has more power than these lovely market participants?

I agree Wall. I would also point to the fact of the herd mentality one observes almost without exception every day. Either up and down, the market moves in a monolithic fashion. This is quite peculiar, and I do not buy the "shallow summer trading" explanation proffered by the boobs on CNBC.

Published: August 17 2010 14:34 | Last updated: August 17 2010 14:34

China will allow foreign central banks and overseas lenders substantially to increase investment in its domestic interbank bond market, in a move aimed at encouraging internationalisation of the Chinese currency.

The People¡¯s Bank of China, the central bank, said on Tuesday that it had launched a pilot project to allow more foreign access to its largely closed domestic interbank bond market to ¡°encourage cross-border renminbi trade settlement¡± and ¡°broaden investment channels for renminbi to flow back [to China]¡±.

EDITOR¡¯S CHOICE

Milestone issue for renminbi debt - Aug-06

China revs up renminbi expansion - Jul-28

US welcomes loosening of renminbi peg - Jul-09

Lex: Renminbi internationalisation - Jul-28

IMF staff and board split on renminbi - Jul-28

Foreign central banks, lenders in Hong Kong and Macao that already conduct renminbi clearing and overseas banks involved in renminbi cross-border trade settlement will be allowed to participate in the Rmb19,500bn ($2,870bn) interbank bond market.

Beijing is trying to encourage use of the renminbi for trade as part of a long-term plan to promote it as a reserve currency and reduce China¡¯s exposure to the US dollar, now used for most Chinese trade.

¡°This is an integral part of pushing the internationalisation of the renminbi,¡± said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS. ¡°In order to encourage foreign institutions to get involved in renminbi settlement, you need to give them somewhere to invest.¡±

Interesting theory there about China being the worlds reserve currency. I dont see how that can happen given their domestic political issues.

Regarding "free markets" I think we differ in the WHY we have none, but we agree that they are a myth and a textbook theory and nothing more..the reason I think they are non-existant is due to the nature of mankind, that we are greedy, selfish people for the most part and will cut the throat of someone else to improve ourselves.

The most crucial part of fair and open equalibrium is transparency of both the buyer and seller, that price is merely a meeting of two parties both on the same level playing field, with profit being modest and honest..we dont have that, we've never had that. I think the government is forced into the equation due to the cheating and selfish nature of market participants. The more we trust the markets to act in the best interest of the whole in general and not regulate, the more the market knives us in the back.

The government is to the market as an infant is to the parent..the government isnt equipped or skilled to regulate to the level of the cheaters because the cheaters are trying to PROFIT which carries a high level of motivation versus regulators who are chasing tails and guessing.

The government really has little responsibility or blame in my book, the government does not wield enough power to have responsibility, even with the tariffs they give to domestic production, that is again the MARKET cheating..the lobbyists pay politicians to protect their interests and ensure the politician gets elected..the root of the theft is yet again the markets.

Until the government has more power and control than the markets, they really are of little blame to me.

Wall,