Yes, it will happen sooner or later, but what if the market goes up another 25% before it goes down 15%? If you try to "time" the market it is easy to get burned, or to find yourself on the sidelines for a huge rally because you think the market is overinflated.
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Yes, it will happen sooner or later, but what if the market goes up another 25% before it goes down 15%? If you try to "time" the market it is easy to get burned, or to find yourself on the sidelines for a huge rally because you think the market is overinflated.
As Wall eluded to , this market has gone almost straight up since the March 2009 lows. Hardly a 10% correction to speak of, and when it has closely occurred, the market snaps right back up. Very difficult for folks who have been waiting for an entry point, so they just buy in at any price now.
An amazing stat that came out recently ; Since the October shock of just last month , the market has traded above its 5-day moving average for some 30 days in a row.
That hasn't happened since the 1920's !!
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As Wall eluded to , this market has gone almost straight up since the March 2009 lows. Hardly a 10% correction to speak of, and when it has closely occurred, the market snaps right back up. Very difficult for folks who have been waiting for an entry point, so they just buy in at any price now.
An amazing stat that came out recently ; Since the October shock of just last month , the market has traded above its 5-day moving average for some 30 days in a row.
The drastic reduction in fuel prices is going to boom the economy--even Obama/EPA cant stop this train coming down the tracks--bears will have to be prudent and pick their spots wisely
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The drastic reduction in fuel prices is going to boom the economy--even Obama/EPA cant stop this train coming down the tracks--bears will have to be prudent and pick their spots wisely
The drastic reduction in fuel prices is going to boom the economy--even Obama/EPA cant stop this train coming down the tracks--bears will have to be prudent and pick their spots wisely
It does not work that way...the gain for one group is the pain of another. As oil drops like this, the shale producers and general oil drillers and refiners are going to get hurt..and that is a big piece of this economy.
Also our currency is getting super strong and that will hurt exports, and even though it might help foreign imports, that does not really weigh heavy on GDP.
There is also no signs of wage growth, no inflation and to me the central banks are pumping our markets but that does not translate to actual growth.
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Quote Originally Posted by SashimiKid:
The drastic reduction in fuel prices is going to boom the economy--even Obama/EPA cant stop this train coming down the tracks--bears will have to be prudent and pick their spots wisely
It does not work that way...the gain for one group is the pain of another. As oil drops like this, the shale producers and general oil drillers and refiners are going to get hurt..and that is a big piece of this economy.
Also our currency is getting super strong and that will hurt exports, and even though it might help foreign imports, that does not really weigh heavy on GDP.
There is also no signs of wage growth, no inflation and to me the central banks are pumping our markets but that does not translate to actual growth.
It does not work that way...the gain for one group is the pain of another. As oil drops like this, the shale producers and general oil drillers and refiners are going to get hurt..and that is a big piece of this economy.
Also our currency is getting super strong and that will hurt exports, and even though it might help foreign imports, that does not really weigh heavy on GDP.
There is also no signs of wage growth, no inflation and to me the central banks are pumping our markets but that does not translate to actual growth.
Wall I believe it does work this way, the bigger shale producers make money at $45 barrel according to Continental Resources CEO and the little guys go out of business at first hiccup anyway... living in a state poorer than most I can tell you firsthand my business is up 10% from three months ago and its directly related to fuel prices and lower income people having more $$ to spend...in a way this is a pay raise for the people making under 30k/year as its an effective tax cut..Recessions are caused by high oil prices and recoveries are bolstered by the opposite imo
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Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
It does not work that way...the gain for one group is the pain of another. As oil drops like this, the shale producers and general oil drillers and refiners are going to get hurt..and that is a big piece of this economy.
Also our currency is getting super strong and that will hurt exports, and even though it might help foreign imports, that does not really weigh heavy on GDP.
There is also no signs of wage growth, no inflation and to me the central banks are pumping our markets but that does not translate to actual growth.
Wall I believe it does work this way, the bigger shale producers make money at $45 barrel according to Continental Resources CEO and the little guys go out of business at first hiccup anyway... living in a state poorer than most I can tell you firsthand my business is up 10% from three months ago and its directly related to fuel prices and lower income people having more $$ to spend...in a way this is a pay raise for the people making under 30k/year as its an effective tax cut..Recessions are caused by high oil prices and recoveries are bolstered by the opposite imo
Have you looked at the balance sheets of most shale producers?
The issue isnt gross margins..its debt service.
I was browsing a few of the public companies and I was shocked at the debt levels...between 10-100 times debt to cash and the rates of these debt types is not low compared to AAA rated companies.
Debt service is a huge issue and even if SOME are profitable on a gross profit bases at 65 (oil now) that does not leave much for debt service OR capital investment.
The pain is showing...and OPEC is attempting to push out most shale producers, and so I think oil will keep going lower.
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Have you looked at the balance sheets of most shale producers?
The issue isnt gross margins..its debt service.
I was browsing a few of the public companies and I was shocked at the debt levels...between 10-100 times debt to cash and the rates of these debt types is not low compared to AAA rated companies.
Debt service is a huge issue and even if SOME are profitable on a gross profit bases at 65 (oil now) that does not leave much for debt service OR capital investment.
The pain is showing...and OPEC is attempting to push out most shale producers, and so I think oil will keep going lower.
Yes i have looked at debt levels as i bought into a few for short term plays roughly 12-15 months ago but this is no different from other startups in different fields which is why I said the lil guys will go bellyup at first hiccup while the healthier will pay their debts and be profitable...Back to our original point of contention how does lower fuel prices negatively affect the economy? Reduction in food prices due to lower fuel costs is another thing that will help the low/middle class make ends meet with a lil leftover for mama which probably means restaurants will see bolstered bottom lines. The list is endless compared to potential jobs lost in oil sector-----why does every thread fly off the rails?
PS--everyone, including our own citizens, underestimate the prowess of American companies..finest in the world
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Yes i have looked at debt levels as i bought into a few for short term plays roughly 12-15 months ago but this is no different from other startups in different fields which is why I said the lil guys will go bellyup at first hiccup while the healthier will pay their debts and be profitable...Back to our original point of contention how does lower fuel prices negatively affect the economy? Reduction in food prices due to lower fuel costs is another thing that will help the low/middle class make ends meet with a lil leftover for mama which probably means restaurants will see bolstered bottom lines. The list is endless compared to potential jobs lost in oil sector-----why does every thread fly off the rails?
PS--everyone, including our own citizens, underestimate the prowess of American companies..finest in the world
Is OPEC really trying to crush shale production or is this the excuse they are using to avoid saying they are trying to crush Russia.
My view is that the USA eventually wants to take Russia business of supplying the EU with gas. It may take 10 years to get LNG projects set up and terminals built but this is their goal.
If OPEC thinks this will slow down the US I have bad news for them.
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Is OPEC really trying to crush shale production or is this the excuse they are using to avoid saying they are trying to crush Russia.
My view is that the USA eventually wants to take Russia business of supplying the EU with gas. It may take 10 years to get LNG projects set up and terminals built but this is their goal.
If OPEC thinks this will slow down the US I have bad news for them.
Is OPEC really trying to crush shale production or is this the excuse they are using to avoid saying they are trying to crush Russia.
My view is that the USA eventually wants to take Russia business of supplying the EU with gas. It may take 10 years to get LNG projects set up and terminals built but this is their goal.
If OPEC thinks this will slow down the US I have bad news for them.
Either way if oil goes into the 50's and sticks for 6 months it will mean a severe reduction in shale output.
If Russia thinks OPEC is trying to crush them, look out for an attack..I would think Putin would go after a large member nation if he feels that is the plan.
High yield debt service will crush more shale producers than you think even if the fringe producers exit, the bigger issue is credit markets. If even the stronger players lose access to the capital markets it will be game over for more companies than you think.
I think shale production is destructive and not worth the damage and cost to the environment.
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Quote Originally Posted by Fire_Control:
Is OPEC really trying to crush shale production or is this the excuse they are using to avoid saying they are trying to crush Russia.
My view is that the USA eventually wants to take Russia business of supplying the EU with gas. It may take 10 years to get LNG projects set up and terminals built but this is their goal.
If OPEC thinks this will slow down the US I have bad news for them.
Either way if oil goes into the 50's and sticks for 6 months it will mean a severe reduction in shale output.
If Russia thinks OPEC is trying to crush them, look out for an attack..I would think Putin would go after a large member nation if he feels that is the plan.
High yield debt service will crush more shale producers than you think even if the fringe producers exit, the bigger issue is credit markets. If even the stronger players lose access to the capital markets it will be game over for more companies than you think.
I think shale production is destructive and not worth the damage and cost to the environment.
The drop in oil prices should be a net positive for the U.S economy, as Sashimi eluded to . Remember folks, 2/3 of the U.S. economy is based on consumer spending. Sure the drillers will get hurt, but this should be more than offset by the extra money that consumers have in their wallets and spend.
Those countries most effected by the drop in oil prices will be the emerging countries ; (Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, ...pick your least favorite Middle East country, etc. ) you get the picture.....
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The drop in oil prices should be a net positive for the U.S economy, as Sashimi eluded to . Remember folks, 2/3 of the U.S. economy is based on consumer spending. Sure the drillers will get hurt, but this should be more than offset by the extra money that consumers have in their wallets and spend.
Those countries most effected by the drop in oil prices will be the emerging countries ; (Russia, Venezuela, Mexico, Nigeria, Brazil, ...pick your least favorite Middle East country, etc. ) you get the picture.....
I think the net pain on the US economy from this drop in oil is MUCH larger than the 10 bucks more I might have from a tank of gas.
The leverage created by the FED from corporate balance sheets, and in this case the energy field is starting to squeeze the credit markets the last few weeks.
To me if the credit markets freeze up the damage will be very large, and that cost is exponentially greater than the savings on gas to the consumer.
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I think the net pain on the US economy from this drop in oil is MUCH larger than the 10 bucks more I might have from a tank of gas.
The leverage created by the FED from corporate balance sheets, and in this case the energy field is starting to squeeze the credit markets the last few weeks.
To me if the credit markets freeze up the damage will be very large, and that cost is exponentially greater than the savings on gas to the consumer.
It goes deeper than saving 10 bucks on a fillup....food will become a bit cheaper, items transported by big rigs will become cheaper as the fuel surcharges are lifted, airline tickets will drop dramatically,, blah blah blah. I could list a thousand things.....literally
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It goes deeper than saving 10 bucks on a fillup....food will become a bit cheaper, items transported by big rigs will become cheaper as the fuel surcharges are lifted, airline tickets will drop dramatically,, blah blah blah. I could list a thousand things.....literally
It goes deeper than saving 10 bucks on a fillup....food will become a bit cheaper, items transported by big rigs will become cheaper as the fuel surcharges are lifted, airline tickets will drop dramatically,, blah blah blah. I could list a thousand things.....literally
I disagree about reduction in prices, I think the opposite. I think airlines will keep prices up and it will increase profits, I think corporate profits will be increased and the "savings" will not be passed on to the consumer to ANY serious degree.
Also keep in mind many airlines are hedged for a year plus, so airlines that pre-buy (hedge) their fuel will not begin to benefit for a long period of time unless they buy off the hedge...
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Quote Originally Posted by SashimiKid:
It goes deeper than saving 10 bucks on a fillup....food will become a bit cheaper, items transported by big rigs will become cheaper as the fuel surcharges are lifted, airline tickets will drop dramatically,, blah blah blah. I could list a thousand things.....literally
I disagree about reduction in prices, I think the opposite. I think airlines will keep prices up and it will increase profits, I think corporate profits will be increased and the "savings" will not be passed on to the consumer to ANY serious degree.
Also keep in mind many airlines are hedged for a year plus, so airlines that pre-buy (hedge) their fuel will not begin to benefit for a long period of time unless they buy off the hedge...
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