Are there any EMINI SP traders here?

any of you guys know anything about trading the emini sp 500 market.

i trade this market daily, just looking for some conversation.

currently i am finishing work on a mechanical system that i think has huge possibilities.. i have traded it with a single contract since July 6 and the results have been very favorable: (6 winners and 8 losers) for a profit of (+38pts) or (+$1900 -14 commissions)...

 

i was just wondering if any of you guys knew anything about this market or have any interest in learning anything about it?

There are many here who know of futures trading or who have either currently or in the past.

In reality, trading the futures is similar to trading anything, just understanding the vehicle is what makes it different.

If you like trading futures, have you considered trading the Forex?

Personally I dont see a ton of value trying to design a program like you are, it is so time consuming and you are a guppy in the pool of sharks..I think you understand what I am saying.

Back during the crazy days (late 90s) I knew many futures traders who had systems and programs they designed..I dont think any of them are still trading.

well your right and wrong.. ive traded since 1996 (part time of course) but my passion is in the development of systems..

so i am not a newbie to trading futures.. ive traded many markets and over the last couple of yrs, have settled on just the emini sp...

and the program that i developed is mechanical and requires very little time from me... the time came in the development of the program... right now, i simply plug the trades in and move the stops along the way...

 

thx for the comments though..

I understand exactly what you are doing and how it works.

If you have been trading that long then maybe you know the site Silicon Investor?

I was/am a member there and during the late 90's there were many futures traders who rubbed elbows and that site was my into into the futures markets. Most players there were trading the full contract.

I also worked for a market maker during that time and we had a group of traders who did mainly the big daddy vs the mini, it was great times back then.

The markets have a way of breaking systems and programs, regardless of how much you back test it or how successful it is, again you understand what I am saying by that.

My comment about the time is that creating the system is a monster endeavor, huge time consumption..when you factor in the time you take to create a program, what is your REAL rate of return given how much time you spend?

Also, you are fighting fund players who have pockets deep enough to support their objective to the point that a system can be right and still be wrong to the point of killing your investment. Especially now where banks and firms are spending this insanely cheap capital and are trading the futures more than ever..you can tell they are manipulating the hell out of the cash markets when they pump the futures, it is obvious as these firms have pivot times that they decide to move the markets..again you know what I mean.

What percentage of "systems" end up lasting long enough that they can beat the big money and survive? I would say not many for the reasons I listed.

seriously thanks for the comments, often times i feel as though im speaking chinese..

would you be interested in critiquing, my system a little.... right here...

the emini sp has much more volume than the big contract... my goal is to eventually trade 5 little ones.. there is zero slippage in the mini...

i have done countless hours of back testing, your right about that and i have done various forms of my current system... however the numbers for this system seem right... i started on tuesday july 6th, trading 1 contract with a 10k account... margin is about 5600 btw... so i have ample room... my plan is to go thru 250 real trades with 1 contract... then im going to move up a contract for every 10k in the account... 20k (2 contracts), 30k (3 contracts)... and so on..

i think my system uses money management as a main weapon, as 1 win is equal to 2.8 losses... at least this is what my research uncovered... so about 1 to 3, will keep me even...

as i said, my record is 6 wins and 8 losses for 38pts of real profit.. i am currently flat the market but i have a working order to sell 1 at 1105.75, last trade 1111.00...

sorry for rambling and i appreciate the comments..

It isnt rambling..it is explaining and I understand exactly what you are saying.

I did not remember the mini having such a high margin requirement, have they upped it over the years?

Now if I recall, and my memory might be spotty but I recall that a point in the SPOOS equaled was it 2500 or so against your margin? It has been near 8 years since I was right next to a futures trader, and I guess I could find out with a 2 minute google search.

So what technical indicators do you use for the system? I imagine you either have a technical indicator or 100, or you try and trade off certain time frames for reversals etc..

I think the more we discuss the more that futures traders who either lurk or post will also comment.

Does the mini equal 250 bucks a point?

I remember my first exposure to the futures market, even though I had my brokers licenses was when CNBC would discuss fair value..

mini equals $50 per pt...

overnight margin is about $5600.... daytrading margin is, whatever your firm wants to say it is...

but my system is a "momentum" system, momentum being the key word... it is not a fundamental system, so you can throw all that out the window..

i enter on stops (buy or sell),,, which means that i enter on momentum.. the big contract is $250 per pt....

last trade 1109.50...

Interesting..

I have no idea why I was thinking that the $ per point was so high.

So do you use moving averages and if it crosses a moving average based on that you go long or short?

Almost an inverse of the traditional support and resistance theory.

Do you let the winners run with a stop behind or in front or do you have exit figures that reflect your goal of wins/losses?

Meaning you let the winners make 6 pts and cut losers to 3 pts..so your ratio of losers can eclips winners and still be profitable?

50 bucks a point in this market isnt bad at all, they whip the futures all day long lately..which is interesting since you say a ton of people are trading them.

That tells me that the big pockets are REALLY hitting the futures if they are able to toss them around like that with all the participants..you would think if there were more players it would decrease the beta, but for sure the last year the beta seems to be higher..it feels like it is.

my profit target is 20pts..... i use trailing stops, with reverse orders...

losses average (or should average) about 7pts... although they all start out with 13pts of risk and then as the market moves in my favor, the risk is reduced by trailing the stops.. i am going with the momentum and will catch any big to semi-big move... guaranteed to catch it....

its a little more complicated than that and i spend over half my time --- waiting on the trades to set up.. i am currently waiting right now... as you know the emini trades around the clock, from sunday afternoon until friday afternoon, with only a daily break from 3:15 to 3:30 cst, to set the daily figures...

i am not a day trader... time of day is not important to me.... i guarantee you, that you have never seen anything like, what im using... that could be a good or bad thing..

 

For sure you are right about it being a good thing regarding never seeing what you do, if you can find a hole in the market then you stand a great chance at succeeding.

I did know about the mini trading all night, I used to follow it online when I was a broker and more active with the markets.

I also think that trading later is better, you are fighting less participants and you can catch an international move and its effects on the the futures.

20 pts is quite a bit of SPOO move..have you charted if a lower number would net you more trades?

I guess in this market a 20 pt SPX move could be done intraday.

What drove you to design it the way you did?

sometime back in 1998, is when i learned of a form of this... over the yrs i have toyed with variations at different times.. about 2 yrs ago i had a successful run with a form of this but i had some personal issues arise and did not have the time to devote to this... i exited with a profit.... i have now picked it back up again and begin to toy with it over the last few months..

as i said, you probably have not heard of this before.... time of day means nothing, its all the same... 9:00 pm tonight or 9:00 am tomorrow morning... makes no difference... my orders are working.

this is why i try and use full margin...

my last 3 trades have been wins....... +20pts, +1pt and +20pts..

my next trade will probably be a loss but i try and not to guess with the market.. i try and go with it........ let the move begin, ride it for a while, take my profits and go back to the sideline.... sounds great in theroy, now here is to finally finding out if it will work or not...

unless i get destroyed, i am committed to working 250 trades with 1 contract and then re-evaluate.. i am ready for trade 15 now..

a few great things that this system has going for it...

1. im trying to go with the market, not fight it.

2. my profits are about 3:1 versus my losses... so this leads to a very sound money management plan.

3. its easy to follow along and not be 100% tied to a computer.. i still work with a live broker during the day, when i am away for a short while..

4. its 100% mechanical, my decisions mean nothing.. my work was done in developing this...

last trade 1111.50, so we are moving slightly higher... my sell stop sits at 1105.75, so it has to drop down to get me into the trade.. as i said, i enter on stops..

That is a tight stop, have you noticed if stops are being triggered since you show on the books, or are the stops accurate meaning do you find that the stops as you are using them are proper and not being rejected or a false stop (meaning bounce and you could have profited more if the stop were wider?)

So what are you using to trigger the buy/sell outside the market moving in a direction? It has to be something related to the strength of the move..and do you factor in the VXX or other things?

i think you are a little confused by what i said...

i enter on stops.... for example, as i type this, the market is trading at 1108.75....

i have a working order to get short (on a sell stop) at 1105.75..... this means if we trade down to 1105.75, i will be entered into the trade (not stopped out)....

ill leave this as an open order for now and if i get engaged, ill set the trade up.... and show you what im talking about...

currently i have an open order to sell 1 esu10 on a stop at 1105.75.. last trade 1109.00..

 

 

wsc: i have now entered the market...

#15. short 1 esu10 1105.75.... i have set a profit target of 20pts at 1085.75... this is a buy limit order... i have now also placed a stoploss (a buystop) at 1116.50...........

so my trade is now setup initially... i have about 11.25pts worth of risk, to make 20pts of profit...

the low is at 1103.50... if we move lower than this, i will trail my stoploss, thus reducing more risk...

here is also a part of my system.... i have 2 buystops placed at 1116.50.... one is my stoploss, the other is a reverse order, which will place me Long at 1116.50 and into my #16th trade...

hope it didnt confuse you... ill update it later today..

Thinker,

No you didnt confuse me, I misunderstood your earlier post about the order, I thought you HAD entered a trade and you had entered a setup, so that was my mistake.

It will be interesting to see if they save it into the end of the day or they can keep testing the lows and punch it down..I am mixed as to what I think they will do.

yeah it will be interested, im locked in and wont change anything..

 

currently sitting short 1 esu10 1105.75, profit target 1085.75, stoploss and reverse orders are now lowered to 1115.25.. max loss on trade 9.5pts, profit target of 20pts..

that is where i sit now..

stop/reverse orders are now lowered to 1113.25, max loss on trade is now reduced to 7.5 pts...

will post update, after the 3:15pm cst close....

 

Well this selling seems more than it is, the SPX isnt even down 1% but given how much they have rallied the markets, anything down seems out of place.

i really expected this trade to be a loss but as i said, im trying not to guess with the market and stay mechanical..

market made a low to 1099.25 and i lowered my stoploss/reverse orders down to 1112.25... risk had been reduced to 6.5pts...

market has since re-opened on thursdays session and is trading at 1103.00, so we are up slightly from the lows.. this is a slower moving trade, most are not..

well that is how i currently sit..

You got close on that drop earlier, but of course they bought it back..cannot let that market drop even though the news keeps being pathetic on a macro level.

Thinker........What kind of results are you seeing with your system plays over the last couple weeks??   Just wondering

Not affiliated with them, but check out eotpro.com.

It's where I started. Now I have my own system.

I can't imagine waiting for 20+ points. I get in and get out. And that wide of a stop loss? Ouch. No way I risk that many points. Even with $10k you seem a bit undercapitalized with that wide of a stop. Just my .02.