Posted:
#1
Kentucky Derby 2023
Well, the Kentucky Derby hits its 149th year with most of us still approaching the race as if our lives depended upon our cashing a ticket. This year is no different, but as always, a handicapping challenge nonetheless, especially with FORTE out. This is the 19 year in which I¡¯ve posted a Derby day analysis. Hope you enjoy it, but, most of all, I hope you¡¯ll be able to take away a few things so you can win some money.
- Hit Show¡.Big credit for increasing his Beyer¡¯s in every race he¡¯s ever run, including the Wood, a race where he finished 2 to Lord Miles, a 59-1 shot. Unfortunately, the Wood of the 21Century isn¡¯t the same Wood that we saw in Secretariat¡¯s Triple Crown year of 1973 when he finished third! Hit Show¡¯s second lowest career Beyer was in his lone CD race. Nonetheless, as I said, he Beyered Up in every race, so maybe a piece is in store. Never count out trainer Brad Cox and jockey Franco¡25% wins as a combo in 64 races in 2022-2023, but the post is a toughie, so his late game is crucial. One last thing¡.those of us who worship sire Candy Ride will note that Hit Show is one of his boys. 30-1 ML. Oooooh la la?
- Verifying¡.I thought his Blue Grass was most impressive validated by a Beyer of 99 bested only by Tapit Trice, the ML second Derby ML fave. Verifying lost by a neck. Consider that he was brushed near the end, which might have cost him the win. He¡¯ll likely sit back, but will he have enough kick to finish in the money? I¡¯ll put him under in my wheels, but this is an ¡°anything might happen¡± dude, and he can win it with a return to his Blue Grass form. Cox and jockey Gaffilione team at 27% wins in 2022-23. Oh, one more thing. His Pappy is Justify. I like 12-1 ML, which could drift upward. <
0
Hot Forum Topics
