Posted:
#1
Had to start a new thread as
yesterday's Kentucky Oaks was one of the worst beats of my career. As
most of you who read my Oaks Preview know, I keyed my main four horses
in exotics. As such, among my plays I:
Had 13-2-12-6 Superfecta. Came 13-12-2-6. Paid $85,555 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12-6 as #2 was 36-1 odds and 12 was 12-1 odds)
Had $100 Exacta 13-2. Would've paid $27,800 ($556 for $2).
Had $4 Triple 13-2-12. 13-12-2 paid $2863 for $1 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12)
Still feel like I got punched in the stomach.
Thanks for letting me vent over my coffee.
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
POST TIME: 6:45 PM EST
#1 LOOKING AT LEE - He got into the Derby because two horses ahead of him in rankings dropped out. In addition to losing to Classic Empire 3 times, he¡¯s finished behind Practical Joke, Sonneteer and Untrapped in previous races. Would be an after thought here but for his eye catching 3rd place finish to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby in his last where he was bobbing and weaving through traffic taking one of the most circuitous stretch runs you will ever see. That performance was significantly a lifetime best. He'd still have to improve more here to contend and regression is more likely.
#2 THUNDER SNOW - Irish runner developed gradually on turf last year overseas and has stepped up his game with the transition to dirt in his two races this year, winning the UAE Derby in his latest. Godolphin owned horses have been firing bullets recently in the US. At 1 3/16 miles, the UAE Derby is the longest Kentucky Derby prep race. Not only did he win at that distance, but no other horse in the Kentucky Derby field has run further than 1 1/8 miles. The biggest question for any Derby horse is if he can handle running 1 1/4 miles. In the UAE Derby, "Snow" was able to re-rally in the late stages of the race after veering out a bit, but then straightening out and surging past the winner in a scintillating stretch drive and victory. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcVWej-Va0Q). Another factor in the Derby is the uniqueness of having such a huge field (which is new to just about every horse) and the traffic it causes. "Snow" won the UAE Derby in a 16 horse field and last year ran in an 18 horse field. He has a nice stalking style and typically sits slightly off the front runners, and he pounces when the leaders tire in the final turn. This style typically helps him avoid traffic problems. Now the downside: No horse has ever finished in the top 4 in the Derby shipping from Dubai. So the travel may be a daunting task. The runner-up in the UAE Derby, Epicharis, opted to skip today to rest for the Preakness. Throw in that he gets first time Lasix. The only knock is the concern about the travel. He's a must use for me.
#3 FAST AND ACCURATE - His connections had to supplement him today for a hefty price as they never expected him to be a Derby horse until he won his most recent, the Spiral at Turfway Park. Having said that, this horse has never won a dirt surface with all win on turf or polytrack. His one dirt race was awful. Has some early speed and could be in the mix early but if he beats more than a few horses, I'd be shocked.
#4 UNTRAPPED - He wasn't good enough to qualify for the Derby based upon the preps until a horse that finished in front of him, Malagacy, dropped out based upon his uninspiring effort in that race. Not a good sign for Untrapped. In both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, he was able to attack and contend at the top of the stretch but stamina became an issue. Not completely horrible but not for me.
#5 ALWAYS DREAMING - Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his three races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming to the Derby off preps in Florida and also with horses that showed remarkable improvement in their most recent race. He will possibly be the favorites here. Obviously a contender but not one I am using except for the bottom of tickets.
#6 STATE OF HONOR - Ran 2nd in the Florida Derby to #5 but I was not overly impressed. Sat a cozy trip behind the leaders and the rail parted like the Red Sea in the "Ten Commandments" and he didn't explode through it. He's heavily raced (his 10 starts are tied for the most of any horse here) and his sheet numbers just aren't fast enough and he is unlikely to improve. Not for me.
#7 GIRVIN - Four career races with three wins and a second (all on dry tracks) mostly against second rate competition. Horses coming up from the Fairgrounds in New Orleans have not fared well recently in the Derby. Churchill's leading jockey, Hernandez, chose McCracken over this one. There also have been some rumors about a foot problem. Not for me.
Had 13-2-12-6 Superfecta. Came 13-12-2-6. Paid $85,555 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12-6 as #2 was 36-1 odds and 12 was 12-1 odds)
Had $100 Exacta 13-2. Would've paid $27,800 ($556 for $2).
Had $4 Triple 13-2-12. 13-12-2 paid $2863 for $1 (Would've been way higher with 13-2-12)
Still feel like I got punched in the stomach.
Thanks for letting me vent over my coffee.
KENTUCKY DERBY ANALYSIS
POST TIME: 6:45 PM EST
#1 LOOKING AT LEE - He got into the Derby because two horses ahead of him in rankings dropped out. In addition to losing to Classic Empire 3 times, he¡¯s finished behind Practical Joke, Sonneteer and Untrapped in previous races. Would be an after thought here but for his eye catching 3rd place finish to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby in his last where he was bobbing and weaving through traffic taking one of the most circuitous stretch runs you will ever see. That performance was significantly a lifetime best. He'd still have to improve more here to contend and regression is more likely.
#2 THUNDER SNOW - Irish runner developed gradually on turf last year overseas and has stepped up his game with the transition to dirt in his two races this year, winning the UAE Derby in his latest. Godolphin owned horses have been firing bullets recently in the US. At 1 3/16 miles, the UAE Derby is the longest Kentucky Derby prep race. Not only did he win at that distance, but no other horse in the Kentucky Derby field has run further than 1 1/8 miles. The biggest question for any Derby horse is if he can handle running 1 1/4 miles. In the UAE Derby, "Snow" was able to re-rally in the late stages of the race after veering out a bit, but then straightening out and surging past the winner in a scintillating stretch drive and victory. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TcVWej-Va0Q). Another factor in the Derby is the uniqueness of having such a huge field (which is new to just about every horse) and the traffic it causes. "Snow" won the UAE Derby in a 16 horse field and last year ran in an 18 horse field. He has a nice stalking style and typically sits slightly off the front runners, and he pounces when the leaders tire in the final turn. This style typically helps him avoid traffic problems. Now the downside: No horse has ever finished in the top 4 in the Derby shipping from Dubai. So the travel may be a daunting task. The runner-up in the UAE Derby, Epicharis, opted to skip today to rest for the Preakness. Throw in that he gets first time Lasix. The only knock is the concern about the travel. He's a must use for me.
#3 FAST AND ACCURATE - His connections had to supplement him today for a hefty price as they never expected him to be a Derby horse until he won his most recent, the Spiral at Turfway Park. Having said that, this horse has never won a dirt surface with all win on turf or polytrack. His one dirt race was awful. Has some early speed and could be in the mix early but if he beats more than a few horses, I'd be shocked.
#4 UNTRAPPED - He wasn't good enough to qualify for the Derby based upon the preps until a horse that finished in front of him, Malagacy, dropped out based upon his uninspiring effort in that race. Not a good sign for Untrapped. In both the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, he was able to attack and contend at the top of the stretch but stamina became an issue. Not completely horrible but not for me.
#5 ALWAYS DREAMING - Ran a strong sprint in his second career race at Saratoga last year and then took a 5 month hiatus. His first two races back this year were uninspiring wins at Tampa but then he threw in a monster effort winning the Florida Derby with a staggering sheet number and improvement. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O0Wydt1VPr0). Has a versatile front running style and has never been worse than 3rd and hasn't lost any of his three races since switching to trainer Todd Pletcher. However, Pletcher has horrible history of horses coming to the Derby off preps in Florida and also with horses that showed remarkable improvement in their most recent race. He will possibly be the favorites here. Obviously a contender but not one I am using except for the bottom of tickets.
#6 STATE OF HONOR - Ran 2nd in the Florida Derby to #5 but I was not overly impressed. Sat a cozy trip behind the leaders and the rail parted like the Red Sea in the "Ten Commandments" and he didn't explode through it. He's heavily raced (his 10 starts are tied for the most of any horse here) and his sheet numbers just aren't fast enough and he is unlikely to improve. Not for me.
#7 GIRVIN - Four career races with three wins and a second (all on dry tracks) mostly against second rate competition. Horses coming up from the Fairgrounds in New Orleans have not fared well recently in the Derby. Churchill's leading jockey, Hernandez, chose McCracken over this one. There also have been some rumors about a foot problem. Not for me.
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