Request - Thoughts on Louisville v @Virginia

I rarely seek the forums perspective.  So this is the exception¡­The line is Louisville -7 Virginia +7.

I have seen quite a few sites and touts picking a UVA cover and some a straight up win.   I don¡¯t get the hype.   Lou gave ND all it could handle in South Bend and was upset by a good SMU team at home last week.    In Steele¡¯s preseason rag, the power rankings had Lou by 14 on a neutral field.  Granted those numbers are dated now, and UVA has surprised.  However, I have a perception that Jeff Brohm and the Cards are pissed, more talented at almost every position and despite the game being at CVille, will boat race the Hoos in this matchup, win and cover¡­

So I rhetorically ask myself, what am I missing?     Thus I  will appreciate any perspectives on this match up including arguments for both the cards and the hoos to cover.

Thank you in advance¡­

When I saw this at +7.5 today I thought…damn now they added the hook for the home dog (looking like bait). I agree with you though Louisville should be pissed off and playing tough. Only way I would play but laying off. Haven’t done much research on this game, but I did have VA circled preseason as a team with 14+ returning starters, same coach, coordinators, and qb as last year. Something I take note of those before I fade them.
GL on your play.

is virginia qb hurt or something that line looks stupid

@MrFreedo

 Thank you for the take.   GL on your picks this week!  

How so¡­like you think the spread should be smaller?

Quote: Originally Posted by rosswin97]is virginia qb hurt or something that line looks stupid[/Quote]

yea who knows what will happen but I think more than a td is too much from a line perspective, my book has 7.5. both have big games ahead but pluses for uva are they are at home and you have some revenge factoring in as uva only lost by a td at louisville last year, uva went into the 4th qtr ahead in that game and the 11th ranked cards only went ahead with 3 min left in the 4th qtr. that was a, up until that game, a 2 win uva team with nothing to play for with only 3 games left facing an 11th ranked louisville team in the hunt for a new yrs day bowl game

uva +7.5 would be my pick. after losing two straight it's becoming clear this louisville team might have issues.

if no injuries reported then I think Virginia covered +7.5. This is one of my big games for Saturday as well. Gl to us all.

LVille off 3 tough games and has Miami on deck. Their O has underperformed and the D is mid at best. Lines are often skewed for many reasons, could be LVille preseason perception or mediocre performance thus with a feeling they "should get right eventually". Maybe they will. Maybe they won't. 

I'm not sure enough to bet them laying a TD+ on the road in a sandwich spot.....

GL

Who has Louisville beat? Beating GTECH at home is good but they are on the slide since their amazing first game themselves. JVST is decent and they put up 49 on them. I see Cards with issues on the road but awesome at home so far when I look at their game lines.

Apparently though, Louisville had a very strong portal transfers arrived but have not meshed, and maybe Week 7 is where they do.

This line to me says, bet the home team or OVER if you like Virginia because, we know the Cavs can score with their balanced offense and their defense gives up points, and will especially to Shough who can sling it vs the 117th ranked secondary of the Cavaliers

I expect a score of 31-24 at least and the Total is 54

Shough managed to manufacture 24 pts vs an outstanding Irish secondary!!

@Last2thirst

 Thanks for your take.  I decided to pass on Lou...GL this week! 

I would take the Ville 

Looked to easy almost like the Bama game, It is a total stay away game for me but best of luck whatever way you go