Conference Bets

I see a trend in football happening late in the season.....will keep it to myself for now, and I think I might use this angle during the Bowl season as well to pick some choice situations.

Let me just say, I totally agree with protecting your homefield and turf. But, if you watched the Texas - Texas AM game, you saw none of the classless shit going on like you see in other rivalry games. Let me just say, classy is going to win the battle long term. 

I think both Texas and Oregon have shown class this season. I know the coach of Penn St is not very well liked but I don't recall any stupid shenanigans or embarrassing selfish actions this year. 

My favorite classy teams are the Irish and Clemson for how their coaches run their program and their decorum on the sidelines. 

So, that is not the trend, but I will say that team togetherness matters a lot this time of the year and bowl season/Playoffs!

Play #1 - Clemson ML x 1U and Clemson will be teased by me but watching lines first

-game is in their backyard

-lost to Louisville and SMU beat Louisville....YES, this game is a bellweather 

-not impressed with Jennings at QB and Clemson has a good secondary and sturdy line 

- way harder schedule for Clemson in my opinion although they could not knock off 2 good SEC teams

Dabo is very experienced getting teams prepared and has a great culture in my opinion which will matter at the end of the year playing for their ticket into the big dance

Play #2 - Oregon -3.5  x 2U

Franklin vs Lanning is enough said.....and Oregon can be nasty team to play when down points since they know how to hold a lead well

-playing on turf with Ducks speed will be killer for them 

- if someone has any intel that can help me to change my mind, I am all ears and please comment if I should by 1U back 

Caution games and looking for intel through the week:

UNLV @ Boise on the smurf turf if I am not mistaken?

Marshall @ Louisiana on the road but LL lost their QB to injury and Marshall matches up well on defense and can move the ball with their run game ....lean MARSHALL

Georgia @ Texas << not a home game and is for GEORGIA because being played in Benz stadium in Atlanta

Tulane @ Army << pretty sure this is a home game and getting +4!!

Good colour on the,games

No embarrassing scene for Texas game because Sark stopped it

good luck brotha 

Hard to disagree BOL

Hey Jim, if Sark did then I have that much more respect for him and what they are building in Texas. I can't tell you how many times I was sickened to read about entitlement and lack of care to the program at Texas in these forums 5-10 years ago

Breathe of fresh air and he is a part of it for sure

Good reminder in bringing up Sark  ....he moves into the classy group now. I like De Boer as well but apparently there was some bad blood after their game too. I get the physicality and the bad blood because I grew up in blood sports of lacrosse and hockey and of course football. But, I played and coached at high levels and its frowned upon and not pro to leave your grievances on the field or court....torn on what I saw and heard

Thanks MJM 

Hoo , you as well 

I notice the trend this year and last > calm coaches are winning big games ....coaches who are too fired up or their teams are too fired up for one team/game, fizzle the next or cannot sustain it .

 Consistency and respect to a process /patience seems to carry talented teams to a better result than the rah rah all the time.

The following teams have recruited killers on with line of the scrimmage or both, or have amazing talent at wide receiver or QB but they have fizzle moments due to something I cannot put my finger on except for seeing that the calm programs who have talent and work at it....coaches keep the karma on the sidelines even keeled seemed to get the best out of their players

Elko at Texas AM had a pretty even keeled approach until big games and he got all flustered at times.

Ryan Day gets too fired up

De Boer complains to the ref and puffs a little too much in big games

Kirby has had his moments like Saban in the last while before he retired but generally he is composed

Kiffin looks confident and in control one moment and then a little adversity and I see a 'ate a shit sandwich' scowl and concern on his face

Cristobal is better when calm and gets out of control and loses his focus when too emotional

Who is chill but focused and just fist pump a good play or smile/grin at the end?

Cignetti (Franklin could learn from him about swagger and confidence, but is better at being calm)

Lanning

Sarkesian 

Marcus Freeman

Shane Beamer 

Dabo > had issues after he won the big one but is back to that self again

Sherrone Moore is that way but needs to construct his own team ...his players pushing the envelope is not a good look

Going to watch to see if this continues to play out..... the rest of the way and next year

Eyeing this Georgia - Texas line 

Texas does not want to end up on the other side of the bracket perhaps ....they are 'cozy' on the other side away from some heavy hitters 

If you watched the Texas-Texas AM game, one thing really stood out about Sark's offensive plan and this does not bode well for Georgia  in my opinion if he chooses to deploy the tactic in the Georgia game.

#1 thing I noticed >Texas AM has one of the best D-Lines so, Texas ran quick RB/QB option to pass or run with 'read' throws to  Tight End Helm who tore open the middle to sideline areas of the field with his size, strength and ability to get open/catch the ball high on the defender if need be.... TAM had to commit to the run because Texas was having success in the early stages of the game.....then they added Arch Manning to do runs off tackle using his strength and speed on the edge....TEXAM didn't know what to do at times initially so I noticed their DC pulled a strong CB with speed like Lee off of coverage to utilize his quickness and size to help out and nullify, like you see teams in the NFL do coming off the edge....that left OPTION #2 open mentioned down below. In utilizing Helm in layers with the run game an occasional deep sideline throw, I envision now Georgia being vulnerable to this sort of strategy against their defense too and know that they love using their CB in attack of the QB ..... Texas basically against Texas AM was using a strategy I watched Georgia use when they had Brock Bowers who had size, quickness and exceptional route running ability that Helm seems to have 

#2 thing that stood out about Texas offense ....they are healthy at the WR and they added layers to their plan above using now play action to find one on one throws to their talented and big/fast WRs and Wingo was utilized in layers of patterns with Helm in their patterns and they started to criss cross or even scissor pattern them with Wingo getting the ball on hook/slant routes (make a move across the field to the sideline after a fake and then reverse back in a hook to the middle of the field and then accelerate on a slant pattern back toward the post for a 2nd separation and lead shoulder catch that blocks out defender) against one on one coverage and his size and strength pushed the ball into the middle of the field with success when Helm slanted or faded to the sideline.....both of them were now an option. WINGO really really impressed me with his hands and utilization of his size after the catch....he is a monster in the making!! 

At times Texas AM adjusted well with their secondary and put pressure on Ewers but when that pressure started to assert itself, Sark subbed in Arch Manning which was genius in my opinion. Maybe for the Georgia game, the utilize Arch's arm now occasionally off of this set, as well as continuing to run him and mix in up the middle with a change in blocking (so run off tackle pattern and then switch body to run up field like the Buffalo Bills used last night in the snow against SF for some big runs!)

To me this was one of the best I have seen Texas look on their offense despite the score being low. It just wasn't the Ewers arm show and the token run play or two to get to 3rd down and 6 or 7 to go.....

Part II

Why I also like this line now at Texas -2.5:

Wisner for Texas got 186 yds vs Texas AM deploying the strategy I mentioned in the previous post......in the first game vs Georgia, they only got 29 yds run in total!!! Georgia is 45th vs the run..... Texas AM AFTER the Texas game slipped to 49th but were rated higher vs the run before it 

GEORGIA blew an emotional left nut in winning that topsy turvy Georgia Tech game that gave them a chance to be in the SEC final which solidifies their PLAYOFF entry no matter if they lose to Texas << this is the most important fact and their edge just might not be as sharp coming into this game vs a team they already beat (when they desperately had to) and Texas, well....they are sharpening their edges based on how I see them making some offensive adjustments and focusing even more on defense which was already topnotch..... they are showing me they are not stale. I just don't know if Georgia has anymore bullets left for this game and desperately need some time off after an emotional/up and down season  

If this game goes to OT, I like Texas to get the job done with a TD and their defense to stop Georgia! Also, Texas tends to go for it on 4th and 1-3 yds to go ....if on at least the 35 yd line of their opponent's side of the field and they have the plays and tools to get these throws or runs successfully against Georgia

Georgia will have to beat Texas on a late TD and I just don't see it the way Texas D-line and secondary are playing these last few games .....Lamborghini boy will not get the job done!

Play #3 Texas -2.5 x 2U     

Clemson ml and Oregon -3.5 are my only plays and went big on them

Best of luck to both of us 

I now have 3 games (Georgia - Texas now my 3rd game) I want to watch with a Spockian eye  before playoffs begin.....and revel in the drama and magic of coaches playbooks and scheming. I can't wait for this weekend!

Ewers is the X factor for Texas...For a 4th or 5th year senior, and supposed first round draft pick, he does not have the intangibles that you would expect.  Sure, he has the arm, and can run if needs to...The bonehead pick 6 and fumbles were embarrassing...But, his throw to the back of the end zone to Blue was amazing.  As those of in the Longhorn Nation ponder, which Quinn Ewers will show up against Georgia and in the playoff...

Our Texas Defense against TAMU was downright nasty while playing in a hostile environment...And that is refreshing to see for us long suffering Texas Longhorns fans...

I will pass on Texas v. Georgia...this week...Personally, I think Texas is the overall better team, even in a quasi home environment like Atlanta.  The big question will be, can Ewers handle the pressure, both the rush and the mental games K Smart and his team will try to play with him.  If Ewers can come through with a win, he may be a 1st or 2nd round draft pick.  If not, then I think he slips to the 3rd or 4th round...He is a good kid, and has performed honorably at Texas...Can he truly win the big games with everything on the line against elite teams, is yet to be seen...

I think Texas would match up well against Oregon in a NC Game...It would be a classic...

Oregon - Texas would be sweet... or Oregon - Notre Dame

Ewers is definitely the straw BUT ....remember all the chatter about McCarthy for a couple years and then he stayed true to himself and utilized the talent around him. The receivers for Texas are sublime....and I enjoyed the work that Sark has put into this team because in October, I had a real hard time watching them! Sark was an amazing OC for Bama and did not always do things exactly the same but he did like to build layers from previous games and I hope to see that vs Georgia like I mentioned before. Its stuff I look at with NFL games and just in general and the schemes they cook up. Wisner is going to be important. The secondary of Georgia can be weak at times running their various schemes on certain downs so one on one matchups are there for Ewers that will be 7 pt opportunities

Excuse me; 

https://www.si.com/college-football/texas-eagerly-plants-longhorns-flag-michigan-logo

https://x.com/BleacherReport/status/1832525565892685968?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1832525565892685968%7Ctwgr%5Ecb8717f2b3261f3fb740ca5f47bd812f8ed4c4dc%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.si.com%2Fcollege-football%2Ftexas-eagerly-plants-longhorns-flag-michigan-logo

Guess it's ok only if the other team doesn't respond?

Nice input 

No idea that happened and in fact, I don't think I saw the game or the cuffuffal after or mentioned. ......will have a look. I give props to Sark for stopping it and doing it in the TexasAM game. I like Michigan and Texas but not enough to overlook a pattern of classless acts....happening once is not a pattern

Best of Luck wondering if Army will have their starting QB available for this game

@Last2thirst

 Great post. Agree with everything you wrote about the coaches. Living in Cleveland, Ohio I am a Buckeyes fan to some extent. After Ohio State lost to Michigan, one thing I thought about was the very late garbage TD that Day wanted and did score on Indiana 7 days prior. The way that Day ran over to Coach Cignetti for the postgame handshake was also very awkward to say the least. Never been a fan of Ryan Day. His whole aura just something off about him for me personally. Thanks for your postings my friend. Be well.

Thanks JFEEZEE 

They are a different team and almost rudderless without him..... just going to watch that game and sprinkle a little bit on Army if I see things are going well 

GL

Thanks Brown20.  I have really become a student of coaches as I was a coach once working with high level athletes and I am always interesting in learning from any coach at any level and what works or not. I hope next year I get to help an OC in a great local program since I was in education/coaching before I retired and want to give back. 

Got a chance to spend a weekend on campus at Columbus back in 85' or 86' because our university was doing a Can-Am tourney there....some lasting memories....whole bar singing Tom Petty or John Cougar songs together getting drunk haha. My kind of town!

Players can sense your panic and sense your intensity when the pressure ramps up.....and you have to be one of them on the sideline meaning,  you exude ' I got this' with a head nod and control....with personnel and moves that need to be made near the end of the game and just a calmness and focus. The players want to win FOR YOU, but if you act tight and gonna shit out a bad move, they tighten up .....and it showed at Ohio St a few times in memory with both Meyer and Day. Both them unfortunately had the wrong mix of egos with their coaching style and needed more time? Maybe not Day. I always thought Urban Meyer should have stayed and been given a full chance to play out a Michigan type scenario of about 5-6 yrs or strong recruiting and knocking on the door.

TEXAS receivers are sick!!!! 

If you are on Georgia ..... Etienne is no factor and is it a matter of time before the Texas secondary blanket forces old Sad Eyes to throw a pick-6? Matter of time I think

Today is the day to open up the play book and show as much as possible because, I have seen layers of options in their plays that they can run for Texas offense. They were stale in midseason it seems.....for a reason

And reason was, they could trust their defensive secondary and not have to trade scores all game.....gave them time to develop a balanced offense 

If the game stays close in the second half, I expect some more wrinkles from Sark like the short yardage play between Arch's legs !! That was genius

Ewers better be ready because the way Georgia is coming out in the 2nd half.....they might win!

Oregon is a machine!! 

And kudos to Penn St....its the best I have seen them play vs a top 15 opponent on offense and defense on some plays....and they are still giving up 44 pts