NFL Picks

Ferguson is one of QB Cooper Rush’s favorite options, targeting the TE a total of 16 times in their three outings together, before Ferguson’s concussion early into the loss to Houston in Week 11. The 6-foot-5 Wisconsin product brought down 12 of those total passes for a collective 106 yards. Cincinnati’s pass defense is dreadful, ranked 30^th in EPA allowed per dropback, and doesn’t discriminate between WRs and TEs when it comes to allowing yardage. The Bengals been beaten up by rival tight ends to the tune of 72 receptions for 783 yards against – sixth most in the land. The majority of the Week 14 player projections call for at least 40 yards from Ferguson on Monday Night Football, with the tallest forecast coming in at 46 yards. My number sits at 42 yards from the Cowboys tight end, which gets us Over his current receiving yard total of 37.5 yards O/U.

How many touchdowns will the Bengals score in this one? This total has taken off with Joe Burrow & Co. expected to air it out in Jerry’s World. Higgins wasted little time having an impact in this offense, scoring in each of first two games back from injury. The Cowboys will have to pick their poison in terms of Cincy’s receivers – especially if Trevon Diggs sits out again. Dallas’ runs a high rate of zone coverage and Higgins is the No. 8 WR in the land vs zone scheme. Week 14 touchdown projections have Higgins near the top of the table.

Cincinnati has scored 38, 27, and 34 points in its last three games, respectively — all of which were losses vs. solid defensive teams in Pittsburgh, Los Angeles, and Baltimore. Unfortunately, those foes were able to score more, boosting Cincinnati’s Over/Under count to 9-3. The Bengals have Now, the Bengals come to the fast track of Jerry’s World to face a disgraceful Dallas Cowboys defense that just allowed 20 points to the Giants and a third-string QB. "America’s Team" has given up an average of 31 points against since Week 6, leading to a 5-2 O/U count. The Cowboys are on a two-game run thanks to their offense putting up tallies of 27 and 34 points, with backup QB Cooper Rush settling in. dropped three in a row and yet open as 6-point road chalk in Dallas for Monday Night Football.

Joe Burrow has shown his ability to take off when needed and has gone Over this total in four of the past five games. He has nine or more rushing yards in eight games this season. The Cowboys apply consistent pressure while also blitzing at the 10th-highest rate. Their ability to pressure Burrow will force him to take off at times and that volume should be enough for Joe to hit this number.

Over the last three weeks, the Cowboys have unleashed Cooper Rush and opened the playbook for him. He has 55, 32, and 36 attempts over each of the last three games. And it has proven to be a successful strategy as the Cowboys have won consecutive games after a five-game losing streak. The Bengals rank 25th in the NFL in pass attempts allowed at 34.0 per contest.

The Bengals have also gone through a gauntlet of strong run defenses over the past few weeks and yet Chase Brown has still found running room. He has averaged 79.5 rushing yards per game over the last four games despite facing four Top-14 run defenses, two of which rank in the Top 4. The Cowboys have the worst stuff percentage in the NFL and Brown will have a great opportunity to break some long ones and hit this total even if he does not get big volume on carries.

Miami sees significant splits on the road. The Fins are 2-4 SU as a visitor, going 3-3 ATS behind an average margin of -5.0 on the road. They’ve faced a slew of bottom-rung defense during this current stretch, taking down the likes of New York, New England, Las Vegas and the L.A. Rams – all ranking 18^th or worst in EPA allowed per play. Houston, on the other hand, is No. 5 in that advanced stat and the healthiest its been since Week 1, thanks to the break. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are also one of the most capable offenses the Dolphins have faced in a while, and we’ve watched Miami suffer losses to elite QBs like Jordan Love and Josh Allen.