It’s an AFC East clash at Hard Rock Stadium with the Miami Dolphins looking to ground the New York Jets on Sunday, December 8.
Miami still has postseason aspirations, and my Jets vs. Dolphins predictions expect Miami to remain in the playoff hunt, with Tua Tagovailoa leading a commanding Week 14 win in our NFL picks.
Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with the game airing on CBS.
Jets vs Dolphins predictions
- Spread pick: Dolphins -6 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline pick: Dolphins (-278 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under pick: Under 45 (-115 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: Dolphins -6 (-105 at BetMGM)
Jets vs Dolphins spread prediction
The New York Jets are only 8-12 ATS across their past 20 games, and Gang Green hasn’t covered the number as an underdog all season.
On the flip side, the Miami Dolphins are sporting an active 4-1 record against the spread, which includes covering their past two at home as a -7.5 and -8 favorite.
Pick: Lay the six with Miami in Week 14.
Jets vs Dolphins moneyline prediction
The Jets have lost eight of their past nine to disappear from the postseason conversation, while the Dolphins are still in the hunt.
Miami projects to be a popular inclusion in moneyline parlays and teasers this week, and I don’t have confidence in New York quarterback Aaron Rodgers pulling off the road upset against a healthy Dolphins defense. Neither should you.
Pick: Dolphins moneyline
Jets vs Dolphins Over/Under prediction
This is the second-highest total of the season for the Jets, and they’ve scored the seventh-fewest points per game (18.8).
Miami has also gone Under its team total in 13 of its past 19, so I lean to the Under in this matchup between division rivals.
Pick: Under 45
Jets vs Dolphins best bet
Pick: Dolphins -6 (-105 at BetMGM)
Quarterback play will be the difference in this AFC East showdown.
Since returning from a concussion in Week 8, Tua Tagovailoa is pacing the league in EPA per play while completing 77.3% of his passes for a respectable 7.6 yards per attempt.
Miami has treaded water to the tune of a 3-3 record during the run, so a string of wins is needed to push for a wild-card spot. This is a winnable one against New York, as Rodgers sits 22nd in EPA per play with a 63.8 completion percentage and pedestrian 5.9 YPA during the same stretch, and the Jets are 1-4 while allowing 24.6 points per game and the ninth-highest EPA per play.
The Gang Green defense was expected to be the team’s calling card, but the inability of Rodgers to command the offense has taken its toll on the stop unit. The Jets have the seventh-lowest yards per play and are tied for the eighth-fewest plays per drive (5.8).
New York has also allowed opponents to average the sixth-highest drive length (3:00) with the eighth-most plays per drive (6.2). It’s added up to New York losing the time-of-possession battle in six consecutive games.
I’m anticipating Tagovailoa and the Miami offense putting too many points on the board for Rodgers and New York to keep pace. The Dolphins were trending in the right direction on defense with a cleaner bill of health before last week’s setback, so extra rest and a return to Hard Rock Stadium sets up a bounce-back spot against the struggling Jets offense.
Jets vs Dolphins same-game parlay (SGP)
Dolphins -6
Tua Tagovailoa Over 23.5 pass completions
De'Von Achane 25+ receiving yards
The Dolphins have averaged just 2.9 yards per carry over the past three games, and they’ve taken it to the air on 67.2% of their plays. Tagovailoa has also completed 25 or more passes in five of his last six games.
With the Jets allowing the sixth-lowest yards per carry (4.1) and ranking third in run-stop win rate, I’m expecting more of the same from the Miami offense. The emergence of running back De'Von Achane in the passing game has also enabled the Dolphins to abandon the run. He’s caught 36 of 41 targets since Tagovailoa has returned, and it’s been a major reason the QB has seen the uptick in completions and completion percentage.
As a result, I’m rounding this same-game parlay out with Achane to record at least 25 receiving yards against the Jets. He’s cleared the number in four of the past six games, and backfield mate Raheem Mostert is still nursing a hip injury. Achane has also garnered a healthy 16.3% target share and sports a high-end 89.1% catch rate.
Read my full Jets vs. Dolphins same-game parlay for more in-depth analysis.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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More NFL picks and odds from Covers
Jets vs Dolphins odds
Jets vs Dolphins live odds
Jets vs Dolphins opening odds
- Spread: New York +6.5 | Miami -6.5
- Moneyline: New York +240 | Miami -300
- Over/Under: Over 45 | Under 45
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Jets vs Dolphins spread and Over/Under analysis
- There has been a half-point move to the New York side of this spread at BetMGM. The shop opened Miami -6.5, and the Dolphins are trading at -6 as of Friday morning.
- As noted, the Jets have only covered the spread in eight of their past 20 games, while the Dolphins enter with an active 4-1 ATS record.
- This total hasn’t seen a lot of early movement. BetMGM opened at 45 and has tested 45.5 multiple times, but the number has since returned to 45.
- With the Jets scoring the seventh-fewest points per game (18.8) and the Dolphins going Under their team total in 13 of their past 19 games, I’m not surprised there hasn’t been sustained interest in the Over.
- 73% of Covers Consensus users are backing Miami on the spread, while 64% are taking the Over.
Jets vs Dolphins betting trend to know
Miami has covered in four of its last five games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jets vs. Dolphins.
How to watch Jets vs Dolphins game info
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 12-8, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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