I am not trying to start any argument, but I do not see how someone can "make a living" betting point spreads.
I know there are " sport gamblers" who have made millions in other things such as stocks or a business (Mattress Mack), but have any of you actually seen TAX documents of a person who has made a living of say 5 years just off betting sports on a consistent basis? Or a screen shot of total money made from say Fanduel, but not from just one large bet that won??
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I am not trying to start any argument, but I do not see how someone can "make a living" betting point spreads.
I know there are " sport gamblers" who have made millions in other things such as stocks or a business (Mattress Mack), but have any of you actually seen TAX documents of a person who has made a living of say 5 years just off betting sports on a consistent basis? Or a screen shot of total money made from say Fanduel, but not from just one large bet that won??
It certainly has to expand beyond just point spreads. It's going to be very hard to hit 53% if you bet these regularly.
#1. Hedging is a great thing and if you are trying to become a professional you should never pass a hedge up. Now I hear people in here say "hedge" when they claim they bet some massive parlay that of course wasn't posted, and they hit the first 11 plays, etc. That's not what I mean. I'm talking about team A -125 team B +135. Never pass that up even though it's a small profit it's still a profit. "When you play for a living you don't give anything away"
Most bettors wont play that hedge because it ties their limited bankroll up for the night and they are hoping to use said bankroll for a better score. Huge amateur mistake.
#2. Always look to play futures before and during season. Again amateurs won't do this because they can't tie money up for 2-4 months. If you don't have money to tie up for a measley couple months, you shouldn't be gambling. You should be working a second job because that level of BROKE can't afford to be gambling. Just being honest. So anyway, futures are gold and there are always soft lines because 95% of gamblers won't touch them because of limited bankroll. You can find beautiful hedges here way better than you will find anywhere else. I know right now one book that has Heat to win division -225 and another with Hawks to win division +300. That's because the Wizards are still in the mix but either Heat or Hawks will definitely win it.
#3. Don't be afraid to pound bad lines. Seriously screw the books. They don't care if they make you homeless. They have made people homeless and 90% of this board are check to check broke mainly because of gambling. I wish we could post pictures here. Tonight I got Celtics ML live action -500 when they were up 8 with 30 seconds left. Bad lines happens more than you think.I see a bad line, I'm pounding the fk out of it.
There are many other ways people can and do win consistently, it's really not just betting point spreads.
But nothing matters if you aren't an expert at money management. That's one area I need to get better at.
I doubt anyone is going to be a professional if they are limiting themselves to point spreads. Too many games come down to the end and can go either way. But for sure gamblers who use every possible angle, grind hard, and avoid "taking a shot" can and do win consistently.
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@jjj888
It certainly has to expand beyond just point spreads. It's going to be very hard to hit 53% if you bet these regularly.
#1. Hedging is a great thing and if you are trying to become a professional you should never pass a hedge up. Now I hear people in here say "hedge" when they claim they bet some massive parlay that of course wasn't posted, and they hit the first 11 plays, etc. That's not what I mean. I'm talking about team A -125 team B +135. Never pass that up even though it's a small profit it's still a profit. "When you play for a living you don't give anything away"
Most bettors wont play that hedge because it ties their limited bankroll up for the night and they are hoping to use said bankroll for a better score. Huge amateur mistake.
#2. Always look to play futures before and during season. Again amateurs won't do this because they can't tie money up for 2-4 months. If you don't have money to tie up for a measley couple months, you shouldn't be gambling. You should be working a second job because that level of BROKE can't afford to be gambling. Just being honest. So anyway, futures are gold and there are always soft lines because 95% of gamblers won't touch them because of limited bankroll. You can find beautiful hedges here way better than you will find anywhere else. I know right now one book that has Heat to win division -225 and another with Hawks to win division +300. That's because the Wizards are still in the mix but either Heat or Hawks will definitely win it.
#3. Don't be afraid to pound bad lines. Seriously screw the books. They don't care if they make you homeless. They have made people homeless and 90% of this board are check to check broke mainly because of gambling. I wish we could post pictures here. Tonight I got Celtics ML live action -500 when they were up 8 with 30 seconds left. Bad lines happens more than you think.I see a bad line, I'm pounding the fk out of it.
There are many other ways people can and do win consistently, it's really not just betting point spreads.
But nothing matters if you aren't an expert at money management. That's one area I need to get better at.
I doubt anyone is going to be a professional if they are limiting themselves to point spreads. Too many games come down to the end and can go either way. But for sure gamblers who use every possible angle, grind hard, and avoid "taking a shot" can and do win consistently.
No¡.but there are people in these forums who will claim they are.
For people who aren't professionals, why don't they just quit ? Or is it like a drug addiction, where despite the obvious self destruction, they just can't quit.
And by professional, I don't mean making $200,000 a year..I simply mean pretty consistently coming out with more win then lost. Even if only + $300 a month, I'm calling that professional. If I couldn't win consistently, I would just quit. It takes so much time from other areas of life anyway. To me, anyone who loses consistently and keeps doing it, has a serious addiction disorder.
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Quote Originally Posted by OneWayOut:
No¡.but there are people in these forums who will claim they are.
For people who aren't professionals, why don't they just quit ? Or is it like a drug addiction, where despite the obvious self destruction, they just can't quit.
And by professional, I don't mean making $200,000 a year..I simply mean pretty consistently coming out with more win then lost. Even if only + $300 a month, I'm calling that professional. If I couldn't win consistently, I would just quit. It takes so much time from other areas of life anyway. To me, anyone who loses consistently and keeps doing it, has a serious addiction disorder.
Do professional gamblers really exist? Most definitely, but they are few and far between.
98% of bettors aren't profitable. They're in it for the action, not the profit. Sure, some are addicted, but for others, sports betting is a hobby, just like fishing, golfing, etc... There's nothing wrong with being in the 98%, as long as you aren't addicted and only play with money you can afford to lose, and understand that in the long run, you will lose.
The other 2%, who are actually profitable, bet on sports for 1 reason - to make money. These bettors understand that they will make far more from the bets they don't make than the ones they do. They understand value. For profitable bettors, it's not about the action, it's about the bottom line instead. Sometimes this means waiting weeks or even months between bets.
I'm profitable and have been for quite a few years now. I rarely watch a game I have money on. About 85% of my betting is done live and I focus on the areas I'm most profitable - NBA, CBB and MLB. This means many nights, I'm spending 3-4 hours staring at computer screens, waiting for a profitable situation to present itself. Some nights I might spend 3-4 hours and never make a bet. Sometimes I spend 3-4 hours and make 8-10 bets. Occasionally on a Saturday, I might spend 10 hours monitoring CBB and NBA games. 2 Saturdays ago, I put in a 10 hour day and made 1 wager, which lost. Last Saturday, I put in 5 hours and made 4 wagers, winning 3. I maintain an extensive database of all my wagers and use that info to avoid unprofitable situations. For example, in CBB, I've found that I'm only actually successful from early January up until the conference tournaments start - so I avoid the early season action and March Madness altogether, because my models don't hold up during those periods of time, and it ends up costing me money. For me, similar situations exist in MLB (rarely bet in April or after August) and NBA (I avoid the playoffs for the most part). I dabble in futures bets across all sports if I can find some value, but typically risk very little doing so. I also don't hesitate to hedge if it guarantees me a profit - if I live bet Team A at +money and later on can get Team B for +money, I'm gonna do it every single time. Yes, I'm profitable, but I don't consider myself to be a professional gambler, because 1) I'm not making enough money wagering on sports to support my family, and 2) 95% of my income comes from something else.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
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Do professional gamblers really exist? Most definitely, but they are few and far between.
98% of bettors aren't profitable. They're in it for the action, not the profit. Sure, some are addicted, but for others, sports betting is a hobby, just like fishing, golfing, etc... There's nothing wrong with being in the 98%, as long as you aren't addicted and only play with money you can afford to lose, and understand that in the long run, you will lose.
The other 2%, who are actually profitable, bet on sports for 1 reason - to make money. These bettors understand that they will make far more from the bets they don't make than the ones they do. They understand value. For profitable bettors, it's not about the action, it's about the bottom line instead. Sometimes this means waiting weeks or even months between bets.
I'm profitable and have been for quite a few years now. I rarely watch a game I have money on. About 85% of my betting is done live and I focus on the areas I'm most profitable - NBA, CBB and MLB. This means many nights, I'm spending 3-4 hours staring at computer screens, waiting for a profitable situation to present itself. Some nights I might spend 3-4 hours and never make a bet. Sometimes I spend 3-4 hours and make 8-10 bets. Occasionally on a Saturday, I might spend 10 hours monitoring CBB and NBA games. 2 Saturdays ago, I put in a 10 hour day and made 1 wager, which lost. Last Saturday, I put in 5 hours and made 4 wagers, winning 3. I maintain an extensive database of all my wagers and use that info to avoid unprofitable situations. For example, in CBB, I've found that I'm only actually successful from early January up until the conference tournaments start - so I avoid the early season action and March Madness altogether, because my models don't hold up during those periods of time, and it ends up costing me money. For me, similar situations exist in MLB (rarely bet in April or after August) and NBA (I avoid the playoffs for the most part). I dabble in futures bets across all sports if I can find some value, but typically risk very little doing so. I also don't hesitate to hedge if it guarantees me a profit - if I live bet Team A at +money and later on can get Team B for +money, I'm gonna do it every single time. Yes, I'm profitable, but I don't consider myself to be a professional gambler, because 1) I'm not making enough money wagering on sports to support my family, and 2) 95% of my income comes from something else.
Bull$hit, luck has EVERYTHING to do with it. Don¡¯t be so impressed with yourself¡.if you ARE actually profitable with MLB, which I seriously doubt. Anyone can make those claims.
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@bluecompass
Bull$hit, luck has EVERYTHING to do with it. Don¡¯t be so impressed with yourself¡.if you ARE actually profitable with MLB, which I seriously doubt. Anyone can make those claims.
Luck is going to balance out over the long run. Nobody gets good luck all the time and nobody has bad luck all the time. If you win consistently it's not luck. That's like saying the 49ers have 5 championships because they are lucky
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Quote Originally Posted by JimmyGape:
I would agree that luck definitely plays a part.
Luck is going to balance out over the long run. Nobody gets good luck all the time and nobody has bad luck all the time. If you win consistently it's not luck. That's like saying the 49ers have 5 championships because they are lucky
Im well aware of short and long term variance. The problem is, a lot of people are not in it for the long haul.
Joe Schmo has 5k and is drinking with his friends in Reno. Hes not a long term gambler but he throws 1k on 5 games over the course of his weekend, etc etc.
The idea that everyone uses BR management and keeps all their bets recorded on a spreadsheet blah blah blah is absurd.
Thats why luck, in the short term will play a massive factor in determining if a lot of people win or lose.
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Im well aware of short and long term variance. The problem is, a lot of people are not in it for the long haul.
Joe Schmo has 5k and is drinking with his friends in Reno. Hes not a long term gambler but he throws 1k on 5 games over the course of his weekend, etc etc.
The idea that everyone uses BR management and keeps all their bets recorded on a spreadsheet blah blah blah is absurd.
Thats why luck, in the short term will play a massive factor in determining if a lot of people win or lose.
But say someone usually bets 20.00 on any game played. He finds inside knowledge. A trainer jockey combination as an example and increases his wager in horses.
Say he has a good card count in black jack and increases his wager as an examples of different circumstances...
Now the macro leagues sharks must do the same if they find specific angles hence we see line movements or lack of them.
Soccer has a great many examples of game fixing. This then must be observed in gambling circumstances...
Now before we get into it's all scripted sports entertainment ect.... Algorhythms can be formulated to discern how this is...
I don't care if they are or not fixed simply would like to know when it is so I can bet a winner more often than loser. I saw a east coast west coast rating angle...
Obviously I was on the wrong side with bengals and San Fran. However the angle was still there with philli and kansas city being west enough.
The simple fact is that in this perpetual coin flip 55% is enough to be profitable and 50% is enough to be unprofitable.
Fans are the hard lot who no matter what bet their team.... However it is math would show when something is not right in any contest....
1
Handicapping is where the coin flip shifts.
Not to 100 percent that is a result of fixing.
But say someone usually bets 20.00 on any game played. He finds inside knowledge. A trainer jockey combination as an example and increases his wager in horses.
Say he has a good card count in black jack and increases his wager as an examples of different circumstances...
Now the macro leagues sharks must do the same if they find specific angles hence we see line movements or lack of them.
Soccer has a great many examples of game fixing. This then must be observed in gambling circumstances...
Now before we get into it's all scripted sports entertainment ect.... Algorhythms can be formulated to discern how this is...
I don't care if they are or not fixed simply would like to know when it is so I can bet a winner more often than loser. I saw a east coast west coast rating angle...
Obviously I was on the wrong side with bengals and San Fran. However the angle was still there with philli and kansas city being west enough.
The simple fact is that in this perpetual coin flip 55% is enough to be profitable and 50% is enough to be unprofitable.
Fans are the hard lot who no matter what bet their team.... However it is math would show when something is not right in any contest....
[Quote: Originally Posted by nature1970]Handicapping is where the coin flip shifts. Not to 100 percent that is a result of fixing. But say someone usually bets 20.00 on any game played. He finds inside knowledge. A trainer jockey combination as an example and increases his wager in horses. Say he has a good card count in black jack and increases his wager as an examples of different circumstances... Now the macro leagues sharks must do the same if they find specific angles hence we see line movements or lack of them. Soccer has a great many examples of game fixing. This then must be observed in gambling circumstances... Now before we get into it's all scripted sports entertainment ect.... Algorhythms can be formulated to discern how this is... I don't care if they are or not fixed simply would like to know when it is so I can bet a winner more often than loser. I saw a east coast west coast rating angle... Obviously I was on the wrong side with bengals and San Fran. However the angle was still there with philli and kansas city being west enough. The simple fact is that in this perpetual coin flip 55% is enough to be profitable and 50% is enough to be unprofitable. Fans are the hard lot who no matter what bet their team.... However it is math would show when something is not right in any contest...WTF
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[Quote: Originally Posted by nature1970]Handicapping is where the coin flip shifts. Not to 100 percent that is a result of fixing. But say someone usually bets 20.00 on any game played. He finds inside knowledge. A trainer jockey combination as an example and increases his wager in horses. Say he has a good card count in black jack and increases his wager as an examples of different circumstances... Now the macro leagues sharks must do the same if they find specific angles hence we see line movements or lack of them. Soccer has a great many examples of game fixing. This then must be observed in gambling circumstances... Now before we get into it's all scripted sports entertainment ect.... Algorhythms can be formulated to discern how this is... I don't care if they are or not fixed simply would like to know when it is so I can bet a winner more often than loser. I saw a east coast west coast rating angle... Obviously I was on the wrong side with bengals and San Fran. However the angle was still there with philli and kansas city being west enough. The simple fact is that in this perpetual coin flip 55% is enough to be profitable and 50% is enough to be unprofitable. Fans are the hard lot who no matter what bet their team.... However it is math would show when something is not right in any contest...WTF
Ok. 1000 common people bet 100 dollars on a game and a shark sharp bets 100,000 to cover the action.
Hence the sharp money has an angle cause the house doesn't lose. If it was a straight game the odds would plummet so 100 covered 100k ...
Math could see that when the number of square bets vs number of sharp bets doesn't equal the line must move to where this is neutral...
1 plus 1 doesn't necessary equal 2..,
If you can make since of that you could discern when and how this simple equation using an algorithm would show possible circumstances where this may not always be the case...
Why do I bother....
"Gambling is for losers", so I state wanna bet....
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Ok. 1000 common people bet 100 dollars on a game and a shark sharp bets 100,000 to cover the action.
Hence the sharp money has an angle cause the house doesn't lose. If it was a straight game the odds would plummet so 100 covered 100k ...
Math could see that when the number of square bets vs number of sharp bets doesn't equal the line must move to where this is neutral...
1 plus 1 doesn't necessary equal 2..,
If you can make since of that you could discern when and how this simple equation using an algorithm would show possible circumstances where this may not always be the case...
Why do I bother....
"Gambling is for losers", so I state wanna bet....
Ok. 1000 common people bet 100 dollars on a game and a shark sharp bets 100,000 to cover the action. Hence the sharp money has an angle cause the house doesn't lose. If it was a straight game the odds would plummet so 100 covered 100k ... Math could see that when the number of square bets vs number of sharp bets doesn't equal the line must move to where this is neutral... 1 plus 1 doesn't necessary equal 2.., If you can make since of that you could discern when and how this simple equation using an algorithm would show possible circumstances where this may not always be the case... Why do I bother.... "Gambling is for losers", so I state wanna bet....
Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin.
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Quote Originally Posted by nature1970:
Ok. 1000 common people bet 100 dollars on a game and a shark sharp bets 100,000 to cover the action. Hence the sharp money has an angle cause the house doesn't lose. If it was a straight game the odds would plummet so 100 covered 100k ... Math could see that when the number of square bets vs number of sharp bets doesn't equal the line must move to where this is neutral... 1 plus 1 doesn't necessary equal 2.., If you can make since of that you could discern when and how this simple equation using an algorithm would show possible circumstances where this may not always be the case... Why do I bother.... "Gambling is for losers", so I state wanna bet....
Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin.
Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin.
If you can win consistently, it's not luck, it's not a coin flip. You're obviously in the 98% who lose because they get eaten by the juice. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're not wagering more than you can afford to lose. Embrace your hobby for what it is - a hobby.
God is great, beer is good, and people are crazy.
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Quote Originally Posted by OneWayOut:
Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin.
If you can win consistently, it's not luck, it's not a coin flip. You're obviously in the 98% who lose because they get eaten by the juice. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're not wagering more than you can afford to lose. Embrace your hobby for what it is - a hobby.
Quote Originally Posted by OneWayOut: Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin. If you can win consistently, it's not luck, it's not a coin flip. You're obviously in the 98% who lose because they get eaten by the juice. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're not wagering more than you can afford to lose. Embrace your hobby for what it is - a hobby.
I¡¯m sure you¡¯re in the other 2% who don¡¯t lose¡.Sell that BS to someone else.
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Quote Originally Posted by bluecompass:
Quote Originally Posted by OneWayOut: Right there is your problem. Analytics¡..You¡¯ve been poisoned with the fairytale of ¡°sharp bets¡±. It¡¯s sports gambling, delete your algorithm and flip a coin. If you can win consistently, it's not luck, it's not a coin flip. You're obviously in the 98% who lose because they get eaten by the juice. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as you're not wagering more than you can afford to lose. Embrace your hobby for what it is - a hobby.
I¡¯m sure you¡¯re in the other 2% who don¡¯t lose¡.Sell that BS to someone else.
I was after professional "sports gamblers".....I know the best poker players can make a living. I hear them interview professional sports wagers on VSIN, but would love to see actual tax returns............
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@nature1970
I was after professional "sports gamblers".....I know the best poker players can make a living. I hear them interview professional sports wagers on VSIN, but would love to see actual tax returns............
take it seriously. Aside from the people who compete in poker tournaments, there are really thos who are professional gamblers and make casinos their source of income. lol most of them dont look like athletes haha.
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take it seriously. Aside from the people who compete in poker tournaments, there are really thos who are professional gamblers and make casinos their source of income. lol most of them dont look like athletes haha.
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