Can you become a Millionaire by Sports betting?

This is a very detailed answer. But the short answer is....A serious sports gambler is looking for inefficient marketplaces, not "winners". Winners are great for the guys who do this as a hobby. Winners make you either win or lose on a given day or week. But the ability to spot and take advantage of an inefficient marketplace makes you a millionaire long term.

So what is an inefficient marketplace? A good example is in poker. In the early 2000's - when Chris Moneymaker won the WSOP on ESPN as a regular joe - and when Pokerstars and Neteller were easy - poker was a very inefficient marketplace. Poker was swimming with tons of dumb money and very little smart money. Fast forward to about 2010, and all of the dumb money was gone and it was just smart money getting eaten up by the rake and each other. But for those years inbetween, there was an inefficient poker marketplace.

In sports, inefficiency is measured by how far off a final line is to the result of the event over time.

So in sports - spotting these inefficient marketplaces takes a lot of insight and analysis. And it isn't even a sport per se - it is options within a sport - and even timing of that option within a sport - that can make you money. I know a guy who makes a living betting only soccer leagues in lower leagues in Europe - only after lineups have been announced an hour before gametime - and only on certain types of bets. So within the NFL there are times of the week, situations, and exact types of wagers that are long term winners because of misperceptions of the public.

In order to pursue this type of betting you have to accept that bookmakers make lines to attract equal action. If you don't accept that - if you think bookmakers set lines to trap you - or that they know more than you - stop reading now. If you know - like I do - that lines are set to attract equal action it sets up a you against all of the other morons betting on that event scenario. Are you smarter, or know more - than the other people who will be betting? Is the bettable line on these events far enough away from the results of these events to make it inefficient?

Personally - I bet football and soccer. Lots and lots of soccer - and a fair amount of football. And I think we are currently in a nice bubble - similar to what I described about poker in the early 2000s with sports betting. With legalization in the states - and more and more first timers and "square" money coming in - there will be better opportunities for those who can spot inefficiencies. Some might think the NFL is too big to have lines that are off. A lot of that is true, but having more people in the pool can actually make markets MORE inefficient depending upon the amount of misinformation or the lack of correlation between the masses and understanding a winner.

So that is a very rambling post from everything from Russian minor league soccer to NFL. But the key thread is being able to spot where you can make wagers to long term beat the juice. Sounds simplistic - but when you tell people that you are putting your money down on bets that you don't expect to win - they look at you like you are nuts.

I laugh reading threads like this with suggestions of you need to do this, or need to start with X amount of money - or whatever. It is simple. You have to have enough money to survive the variance of cash flow for your given projected win hold. Most people think that betting 100X your normal wager on a sure winner is the way to do it, but betting your normal wager 100 different times on statistic edges and winning 55 of them is actually the way to do it. And why most people don't survive at serious sports betting.

Whats up Train!  Good to see you also.  Still working on NFL.  Have a few bets in based on line movements that I expect, so I will probably sell off before gametime.  Maybe I will post like a supercontest 5 or something going forward.

All the best.

Sorry to Zebrakiller here....  But this is a great example of total nonsense.

Craps is unbeatable.  Period.  Why?  Because it is the definition of an EFFICIENT marketplace.  Every single wager on the craps table has a negative EV.  There is no single bet, or no combination of bets, that can turn every negative EV bet in to positive EV.  

No combinations of money management, no combinations of luck, no combination of anything.  

The method Zebrakiller uses here is what is called a "gish gallop".  Look it up.

Thanks for all the insights, Vanz. Really appreciate it. I believe I’ve been doing what you say for most of my gambling “career” (though I’m strictly a recreational gambler now because I suffer from OCD, which means gambling takes over my life), looking for an edge, without using the terms you use. I’m also not a math guy (I’m a humanities guy:) so I’ve focused my energies on finding psychological angles that are not accounted for in the lines or by the public at large.

One quick question, when you say you are going to sell off a good line that you got earlier in the week before gametime, how exactly do you do that and/or how does that work? Thanks. 

Begginerboy...  First off, sorry to hear about your OCD.  I know how debilitating that can be and I hope you find peace with yours.

To answer your question....  Think of a line on a game - from the time the line opens until the game starts - as a stock in the stock market.  It goes up, goes down, the price moves etc.  It is essentially a stock with a short time frame from the birth of a "company" to the death of that "company".

A very large part of what I do is buy and sell those "stocks".  So I predict line movement, or even predict volatility (not necessarily which direction it will move, just that it will move).  I am fortunate in that I have a lot of outs and options to "buy and sell" these positions.  So there are exchanges (like betfair or matchbook) and then more traditional books.

So I "buy" a line in anticipation of a move, and then "sell" that line later by either betting the other side, or by actually selling it on an exchange.  These are wagers that I don't want to have that side, don't like that team - only like the probability that it will move in a direction I predict - or move at all.  If I end up carrying that bet in to the actual game - I have made a mistake on the initial position.  I often also have what I call "negative middle exposure" where I have incorrectly predicted a line move and I bet the other side exposing myself to a middle where I can lose both - this is not where you want to be but it happens.

I know people who just do this.  They don't "pick winners" at all.  They just "trade stocks" by sports bettting.

I'm a first generation millionaire
I broke the curse in my family not having shit

This is very interesting and helpful. Thank you for sharing. This approach also seems to take the emotional element of being too attached to a pick/position/winner out of the equation, at least somewhat, by making it purely a numbers game.Personally, I have been very good at predicting line moves over the years (both in the NFL and NBA), but never really thought about capitalizing on that skill. I just assumed getting a good line was itself enough to give me an edge. But there were often times where I held on to a good line just because it was good and not necessarily because I thought I’d be on the winning side, if that makes sense. If I knew I had the option to literally “sell” the line, I probably would have. 

You really don't even have to know much about sports to do it.  But there are a couple of ingredients that make this soup possible...

One is multiple outs.  You cant rely on one shop to do this, for a number of reasons - some obvious some not.  

Two is outs with the lowest house hold possible (difference between both sides in terms of price - ie: 20 cent lines, or 1 cent lines like Matchbook).  Obviously it is easier to make a profit when you have outs with very small house spreads because the line needs to move very little to make money.

Third is books where you can bet any point spread (at a certain price of course).  If all you have are outs that move lines, but don't allow you to sell at your original number - you are going to end up with middles which can be good - but not as good.

And finally the capability to quickly move money between outs.  Buying power.

Sports with no pointspreads (MLB, NHL, Soccer, Tennis) are great candidates for this because you don't have to deal with the pointspread.

There is nothing better than heading in to a Sunday knowing that if you lose all of your regular bets you are still up because of the work you did during the previous week.

This is all amazing stuff. Thanks again for sharing. I imagine we are talking about bets in the thousands to eke out a profit. I don¡¯t expect there to be much of a profit selling lines that you invested a couple of hundred in. Funny story, one of my first experiences gambling was a book I found that actually allowed me to parlay the price of an NBA playoff series with the result of an individual game. This was a huge loophole that should never be allowed! It was like taking candy from a baby. By the the time the Heat played the Spurs in game 7 of the finals, I stood to win 5 grand no matter which team won the championship. After all my winnings, the book closed that loophole, but it was fun while it lasted. What you are suggesting is something similar but through a different process, a kind of win win situation, if, that is, you have the skill and work ethic to make it happen. 

You have to have money to make money!  

Going 8-2 on $1,000 bets every week is very different than going 5-4 on $100,000 bets every week :)

Great read Van  too bad 99.1% of all covers readers will pay no attention to it.  Shame.   

You know, everybody here is always sucking off Bator when Vanzack is the true Covers GOAT. Always pay attention when this man has something to say.  Thank you, sir

(no disrespect to Bator, man is legit too!)

There are very few people who can really win money in sports betting.
This requires a lot of money and time and requires advanced data technology to support. Alas,
I am working on it. At present, I am not losing or earning.

First, learn to beat the book and that's joining the 1.8% of people who can...... Easy to beat the book but you need to learn how and when to play on the side of Vegas....... Line reading is the secret and understanding where the money is.... Learn to play 80% dogs because losers play 80% Favs.......... Once you learn to beat the book, set a number like $5,000 and invest those winnings in condos on the beach...... In a few years those condos will be paid off and you will become a millionaire easily.... Do you ever try and rent a place on good beaches and I'll not say where...... They will pay for themselves and pretty much not cost you a penny........ I'm waiting right now to see which way the election goes and have plans to pounce whichever one wins and I have huge money on Trump...... Let money work for you, taught to me years a go by a very smart man........ Don't worry about the condos being under water, All those preaching climate change own beachfront property and don't really seem all that concern when you do your own research....... I'm looking at a condo right now as I speak among a dozen other places...... Learn to beat the book and invest in Condos that stay rented out........... Wish the best,   Knock!

Another great example of why people do not make money sports betting.  Im not sure you could fit more misinformation in to one incoherent paragraph.

@vanzack

 LOL......................... My plays were posted everyday for 20 years and never saw a better record............... People kill me thinking they know how to beat the book and people like this is why i quit posting............... I have a lot of people maybe here who can back what i say but can tell you bet Favs and you guys will never beat the book.......... I'm just giving advice that works, you choose what to believe............... I could really care less but I've never seen anyone that could beat the book like i have............ Take Care!!!   Go load up on Trump and build your bankroll quickly!!!!   I'm getting ready to fly out to vegas I think just to unload more money on Trump!!!!!   The Wife says do it, told her to book the flight........... Knock!

LOL, people like this do really make me laugh and Thank God for the losers we have in sports betting...... Vegas could not run if people like this guy won!!!!   I thank you for not understanding,   Knock!     

 Baseball is 100% the easiest sport to make money on,   Knock!

@knockonwood

 Yessir! Skills for the real, luck for the rabbits !

@ActionMagnet

 Bet Sports for Fun..Invest for Profit..
 
yes, You can win a Million if you bet 1.1 million.!

besides the Big C the last 5 years been great... Wall St/Crypto make big $, bet sports Lose a little /win a little.   Life is good..

@vanzack

 Thank you, one of the Top Posts I have read here in years,  No Bs.

one time I started  with 50 bucks  and was able to bump it to 50 thousand when i was betting with bookmaker