UFC Fight Night: Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates Odds, Picks & Predictions

Neil Magny faces off against Carlos Prates in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting this Saturday from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Magny has long been a gatekeeper at welterweight and he's once again taking on a fast-rising prospect. UFC odds opened with Prates as a massive -600 favorite and he's now up to -775 with Magny coming back at +600. 

I let you know how to find betting value on this bout with my best free UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates picks and predictions for November 9.

Magny vs Prates prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Carlos Prates ML (-775 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 1.5 rounds (-125 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Carlos "The Nightmare" Prates is on a 10-fight winning streak with his last nine wins coming by way of KO/TKO. That includes all four of his fights inside the octagon where he has knocked out his opponents inside the first two rounds. 

It makes sense that a vicious knockout artist entering his prime would be favored against 37-year-old Neil Magny, who was knocked out in the first round by Michael Morales just 11 weeks ago.

That said, while Magny has plenty of wear on his tires after 33 fights in the UFC, he's still extremely active and generally competitive. He has alternated wins and losses in his last eight fights and he upset Mike Malott as a +275 underdog earlier this year.

Magny was beaten up in the first two rounds but weathered the storm. When Malott gassed out in the third, Magny reversed position and finished him with ground and pound. Magny has a well-rounded skillset and with a massive 80-inch reach, Prates won't have a reach advantage for the first time in his career. 

With Prates' diverse striking arsenal and advantages in speed and power, he should get the win. But this line is way too steep to consider against a still dangerous veteran like Magny. Look elsewhere for betting value. 

Best best analysis

With Prates' power and Magny's durability a question mark so soon after a knockout loss, backing Prates to win by KO/TKO makes the most sense. However, even betting on Prates to win by KO/TKO is practically unplayable at -345. 

While Magny will likely lose, he's not an easy opponent to finish early. He went the distance against Ian Garry last year before turning the tide against Malott in the third round earlier this year. He also lasted until nearly the end of the second round when he faced Shavkat Rakhmonov in 2022.

Magny will be the toughest opponent Prates has ever faced. Sure, Prates is coming off a victory against Li Jingliang who was a solid fighter in prime but Li was clearly washed after a two-year absence from the sport and coming off a spinal injury. Prates should get another knockout win here but I doubt it will come inside the first round and a half.

Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates odds

Method of Victory	Magny	Prates
To win outright	+500	-769
To win by KO/TKO	+1,550	-345
To win by decision	+1,350	+725
To win by submission	+1,350	+875
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds as of 11-7.

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Neil Magny vs Carlos Prates tale of the tape

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