UFC 308: Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets

Ilia Topuria makes the first defense of his featherweight title against former champ Max Holloway at UFC 308 today.

This could be a changing of the guard in the division, with UFC odds installing the 27-year-old Topuria as a -270 favorite and the long-time contender in Holloway coming back at +200.

Both of these fighters are coming off highlight-reel knockouts, but my Topuria vs. Holloway predictions for October 26 are betting on this battle to go to the final bell.

Topuria vs Holloway prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Topuria ML (-270 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Fight to go distance (+130 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Holloway proved he's still an elite fighter when he faced Justin Gaethje as a +135 underdog in April. and outboxed the No. 2 lightweight contender for five rounds before starching him with a spectacular last-second knockout.

That said, Topuria's hand speed is a touch faster than Holloway's at this point in their respective careers. Don't forget Holloway looked a step slower than Alexander Volkanovski when he was soundly beaten in their trilogy bout two years ago while Topuria displayed faster striking than Volk when he knocked him out to claim the 145-pound strap in February.

Topuria has devastating power in his hands, with four of his six wins in the UFC coming by KO/TKO. He also has excellent grappling ability, racking up eight submission victories in his MMA career. Even if Topuria doesn't become the first fighter to crack Holloway's iron chin, he should land the more impactful shots or use his superior wrestling to win rounds.

With more paths to victory, expect Topuria to win. However, as a -270 favorite, this line is too wide against an ultra-durable fighter like Holloway, whose elite cardio and incredible volume could lead to an upset if this goes to the judges' cards. Look elsewhere for betting value.

Best best analysis

Topuria could land the heavier shots, but Holloway has never been knocked out or even knocked down in his career. And while Topuria also has dangerous submissions, Holloway's 84% takedown defense should help him keep this fight standing up.

Most of Topuria's fights have ended quickly but when he can't get an early finish, he tends to mix in his wrestling. He went 8-for-12 on takedown attempts in bouts against Josh Emmett and Youssef Zalal that went the distance, and he also used three takedown attempts vs. Jai Herbert after getting dropped early.

When Topuria realizes he can't steamroll Holloway standing up, he'll resort to his grappling, which will drain time off the clock and lead to stalling against the cage.

It'll be tough for Topuria to win inside the distance and I'm not confident in Holloway getting a stoppage either. Holloway is a high-volume striker with highly technical boxing, but he doesn't typically display death-touch power, preferring to accumulate damage over time. 

Sure, he's coming off a spectacular KO win, but that happened in the final second of a 25-minute bout, and his previous knockout came against the "Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung, who is extremely hittable and whose chin is long gone. Before that knockout against Jung, Holloway's previous eight fights had gone the full 25 minutes.

Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway odds

Method of Victory	Topuria	Holloway
To win outright	-270	+220
To win by KO/TKO	+190	+625
To win by decision	+245	+500
To win by submission	+400	+2250
Draw	+2500	+2500

Odds as of 10-26

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Ilia Topuria vs Max Holloway tale of the tape

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