Los Angeles Rams

Picks

The Arizona Cardinals don’t have a great offense but Michael Wilson has emerged as a good secondary option at wideout. The tight end still leads the offense with rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. as the top option, but Wilson is catching up with 526 yards in 15 games — 35 yards per contest. The Los Angeles Rams typically allow some decent action to receivers. They’ve allowed multiple wideouts to rack up at least 30 yards in seven of 15 games this season, including last week against the Jets and the first matchup against the Cardinals.

Matthew Stafford has seen his passing volume decrease in recent weeks. After throwing the ball at least 44 times in four of his first nine games, he’s gone Over 30.5 attempts in just one of his last six games. Given the fact that the Los Angeles Rams are a touchdown favorite, we should see them get out to a lead before turning to the run game to keep the clock moving. Overall, Stafford has gone Under 30.5 attempts in nine of 15 games this season, including six of his last seven contests.

Arizona Cardinals kicker Chad Ryland has done an admirable job filling in for the injured Matt Prater this season. He’s 25-for-29 on field goals this season and a perfect 21-for-21 on extra points. Ryland’s kicking points total is set at 5.5 with the Over at -140. Unless he gets one field goal and three extra points, which seems unlikely given the Arizona offense, the likely path is two field goals which we’re getting at +130 rather than -140. Finally, kickers have attempted multiple field goals against the Rams in 11 of 16 games this season, including three attempts in four straight weeks recently.

Cooper Kupp has cooled off over the last two weeks with just three receptions and 24 yards total in his last two games, but he was on fire just before that with four TDs from Week 11 through 14. The eight-year veteran has generally been Matthew Stafford’s go-to option with a team-high 97 targets, while Kupp also ranks second on L.A. in receiving TDs (six), receiving yards (681), and receptions (66).

Trey McBride leads all Cardinals receivers in receiving yards (958), receptions (92), targets (120), and first downs (51), yet he somehow hasn’t scored a touchdown. But I think that could change on Saturday night against the Rams. Despite the team’s 9-6 record, L.A.’s passing defense has been middling at best, ranking 27th in opponent yards gained per pass attempt (7.6) and 25th in opponent TD% (5.1).

The Rams just need to win out to stay on top of the NFC West and that’s never been an issue for Sean McVay in December. Since taking over the coaching gig in Los Angeles, McVay is 21-13 SU and 20-13-1 ATS from Week 14 to the final game of the season – that’s a 60% winner. Put the Rams at home in those games and they’re 10-5-1 ATS – that’s better at 65%. The Cardinals come into Week 17 done like dinner and banged up in the ground game as well as the linebacker corps. Kyler Murray faces a zone-heavy defense from LA and struggles against zone schemes.

McBride has been Arizona consistent producer in the passing game and let the team have it following last week’s loss to Carolina, getting caught on camera blasting their efforts. McBride enters Week 17 just 42 yards short of 1,000 receiving yards on the season and with the run game in shambled and Arizona pegged as touchdown dog, game script says Kyle Murray is passing it. Projections for McBride are positive, most are north of 60 yards with a high of 71 yards vs the Rams. He had 69 yards on six receptions vs LA back in Week 2 and the Rams have allowed the ninth most yardage to TEs this season.