Friday night is here, and there's a great slate of NHL games for bettors to feast on as the cold winter rolls into town.
Tonight, I’m betting on the top line in Toronto, finding value in an injury to a first-line center, and taking advantage of the disaster that is the New York Rangers.
These are my three favorite NHL picks for Friday, December 6.
NHL prop picks and best bets for December 6
Knies Over 0.5 points (-120 at bet365)
Rossi Over 0.5 assists (+145 at bet365)
Crosby + Rakell + Rust Over 0.5 points each (+260 at bet365)
Picks made on 12-6 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Matthew Knies Over 0.5 points
The Toronto Maple Leafs offense got a spark last game when coach Craig Berube put Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner back together.
The duo quickly turned a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead. One of the biggest benefactors of the change will be Matthew Knies who plays the wing and is on the first power play unit.
He is -120 for a point, which is much too short for a team winning at home, given the offensive insulation Knies has.
Since returning to the lineup, Knies has a point in three straight and nine in his last nine full games. He’s facing a Washington team the Leafs are 9-1 SU against over the last 10 matchups, while the Buds are 9-1 SU at home in their last 10 games.
Knies is looking every bit like a top-six winger in the league and is starting to play with more confidence than he ever has. His Over 0.5 points should be closer to -150/-155, so this is a buy to -135/-140 for me.
A stack with Knies, Mathews, and Marner at bet365 is +170 — or +130 with just Knies and Matthews.
Prop bet #2: Marco Rossi Over 0.5 assists
With Joel Eriksson Ek out of the lineup, Marco Rossi is centering the top line and PP1 for the Minnesota Wild. He's playing next to Kirill Kaprizov, who is the betting favorite for the league’s MVP, and Matt Boldy, who is a point-per-game forward.
The matchup is also against the Ducks, who have the league’s worst expected goals allowed per 60 at all strength, and the Wild are a hefty -225 road favorite.
There are some discrepancies with Rossi’s pricing for a point ranging from -129 to -175 for the Over, but as a center and a guy who is not a huge shooter with just 11 shots on goal over his last nine games, his assist for +145 is the best way to navigate his promotion.
It’s a big price for a guy who's going to see at least a two-minute increase in his time on ice tonight. The entire line to get a point is priced at +125, which is about as short as a triple stack can get, showing the likely probability of these guys finding the score sheet.
Prop bet #3: Sidney Crosby + Rickard Rakell + Bryan Rust Over 0.5 points each
Shit has hit the fan for the Rangers, with captain Jacob Trouba being sat tonight as the team looks to trade him or waive him. It’s more drama for a team already mired in plenty of it thanks to some awful performances on the ice of late.
New York is 1-6 SU in its last seven games and has been outscored 26-11 over that stretch. The goaltending has been awful, it's been terrible defensively, and the Rangers know they have to deal with even more BS with the Trouba news.
On the other side, the Pittsburgh Penguins have turned things around by winning four straight games and have beaten some decent teams in Florida, Boston, Vancouver, and Calgary. The boys are scoring and have a great matchup tonight to put up some goals vs. this reeling Rangers squad.
Mike Sullivan is still loading his top line with Sidney Crosby, Rickard Rakell, and Bryan Rust. That top line is paying +260 to all get a point in a game with a total of 6.5.
I don’t always love adding a third leg to a stack, but when I add a Crosby point to a Rust/Rakell stack, the odds go from +180 to +260, which is worth the addition. However, the Rust/Rakell stack at +180 is a good look too.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
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