We’ve got eight games on the betting slate tonight, including an Atlantic Division battle between the Detroit Red Wings and Toronto Maple Leafs at Little Caesars Arena.
The Red Wings have one of the league’s worst penalty kills, and I fully expect Mitch Marner to exploit it tonight for my best bet in my Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings predictions.
Find out why in my free NHL picks for this Friday, December 27 matchup.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings prediction
My Leafs pick
Mitchell Marner Over 0.5 power-play points (+210 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings clash tonight in the NHL’s return to action after the holiday break.
Toronto lost its final two games leading into the break, while Detroit had lost four in a row, resulting in a coaching change on Boxing Day.
The Red Wings fired Derek Lalonde in place of Todd McLellan yesterday, but without a single day of practice before the Maple Leafs matchup, I’m not anticipating a much different squad out of Detroit.
One of the weak spots for Detroit all season has been their penalty kill, which ranks 31st in the NHL with a lowly 68% kill rate. It gives up a hefty amount of scoring chances at 5-on-5, allowing 62.51 chances per 60 minutes, with a team save percentage of .771 on the PK.
Despite the Leafs having just a 20.4% success rate on the power play, the chances have been there for them. Toronto ranks second in the NHL in scoring chances per 60 while on the power play. So they should be able to take advantage of a poor penalty-killing team and find the back of the net on the man advantage.
Thus, I’ll be attacking the Maple Leafs power play prop market for my best bet, and there isn't anyone on the Leafs who has been more profitable in this market this year than Mitch Marner.
Additionally, he leads the team with 18 power-play points on the season. This is pretty impressive, considering the Leafs have just 21 PPGs this year, meaning Marner has factored into 85% of his team’s total successful power plays.
The Leafs' talented winger cashed this bet a couple of weeks ago when these two teams played last. He has power-play points in three straight games against Detroit and in four of the last five meetings. I think he will continue the trend tonight.
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings same-game parlay (SGP)
Mitchell Marner 2+ shots
Bobby McMann 2+ shots
Leafs moneyline
For the first leg of the SGP, we’ll mirror my Mitch Marner play with his shot prop and take him getting 2+ shots on goal tonight. Marner averages 2.48 shots per game but has gone over this total in both games without Auston Matthews before the break.
Next up, we’ll stick with the shots prop theme and grab Bobby McMann to get 2+ shots on net. He’s playing with some serious confidence right now in a prime middle-six role. He’s hit this total in 12 of his last 13 outings.
For the final leg of the SGP, I’ll take the Leafs on the moneyline. Toronto is the better team overall and the Red Wings have been horrendous on home ice this season with a 6-8-2 record. They also may need a practice or two to see the benefits of the coaching change.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Maple Leafs vs Red Wings odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings live odds
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings opening odds
- Puck line: Toronto -1.5 | Detroit +1.5
- Moneyline: Toronto +165 | Detroit -200
- Over/Under: Over 110 | Under 110
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings trend
The Under is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Winnipeg Jets. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Red Wings.
How to watch Maple Leafs vs Red Wings
| Location: | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Friday, 12-27-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TVAS |
Maple Leafs vs Red Wings latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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