Shopping around isn’t just for scooping the best holiday deals. NFL bettors are looking for a good value, with the Week 15 odds just hitting the shelves Sunday night.
Sometimes, getting the best bang for your buck means jumping on the opening spreads and totals before the market forces movement. Or, if you’ve got your eye on a certain number, you can sit and wait for wagers to come in then snatch up the adjusted odds later in the week.
Here are my "Bet Now, Bet Later" lines for your NFL picks in Week 15.
Week 15 bet now, bet later picks
- Dolphins at Texans (-2): Bet Now
- Steelers at Eagles (-4.5): Bet Later
- Ravens at Giants (Under 44): Bet Now
- Bills at Lions (Under 53.5): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-2): Bet Now
This is a big game in terms of the AFC playoff picture, with the Houston Texans holding tight to the AFC South lead and the Miami Dolphins pushing for a Wild Card. The Texans are coming off a bye and hosting a hot Dolphins squad that has won four of its last five.
Miami, however, sees significant splits on the road. The Fins are 2-4 SU as visitors, going 3-3 ATS behind an average margin of -5.0 on the road. They’ve faced a slew of bottom-rung defense during this current stretch, taking down the likes of New York, New England, Las Vegas, and the L.A. Rams — all ranking 18th or worst in EPA allowed per play.
Houston, on the other hand, is No. 5 in that advanced stat and the healthiest it's been since Week 1, thanks to the break. C.J. Stroud and the Texans are also one of the most capable offenses the Dolphins have faced in a while, and we’ve watched Miami suffer losses to elite QBs like Jordan Love and Josh Allen.
Houston opened as low as -2 with most books at -2.5. Grab the rest home favorite below the field goal now.
Best odds to bet Texans -2 right now
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5): Bet Later
This Keystone State clash opened with the Philadelphia Eagles as 4.5-point home favorites, but we’re seeing some early action on the Pittsburgh Steelers and some books are down to -4 on Sunday night.
Both Pennsylvania teams picked up wins in Week 14, but Pittsburgh looked much better blasting the Browns (thanks to three Cleveland turnovers). The Steelers dropped their divisional rivals to improve to 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight outings.
Philadelphia, on the other hand, had one whale worrying after a $3-million wager was placed on the Eagles’ moneyline against Carolina. Philly was trailing 16-14 heading into the fourth quarter before pulling ahead for a 22-16 victory at home.
Pittsburgh sat standout WR George Pickens on Sunday (a positive status update for Week 15 will impact this line), resting his tender hamstring for this colossal contest. There will be no shortage of trends flying around gambling social media pertaining to Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog (it’s 65% since 2007, in case you're curious).
This is Pittsburgh’s biggest two-way test of the season, with Philadelphia ranked Top 5 in EPA for and against. If you aren’t buying into the Tomlin trends, don’t bet the Eagles right now. See if you can get the home side below the undervalued key number of -4 later in the week.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants (Under 44): Bet Now
The Baltimore Ravens used a late-season bye to recharge and retool their defense before the final playoff push. Baltimore has been gradually tightening the bolts on the stop unit the past few weeks, sitting No. 6 in EPA allowed per play since Week 11.
The New York Giants won’t put up much of a fight on offense either. With Drew Lock (or Tommy DeVito) at QB, this attack is toothless. New York mustered 11 points in Sunday's loss to New Orleans, finishing 1-for-3 in the red zone while averaging 4.4 yards per play. The G-Men also lost bodies on the offensive line this weekend.
The Ravens will run the ball, that’s for sure, which means shorter gains with the clock running. Baltimore also has a big battle with Pittsburgh in Week 16 and given the monster spread in this game (Baltimore -13), the Ravens could pull their stars and rest up in the final frame.
The 44-point total is currently on the other side of the key O/U number of 43 (a half-point shorter than the look-ahead line) and I could see it slimming quickly with early action on the Under. I’m betting the Under 44 now.
Best odds to bet Under 44 right now
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions (Under 53.5): Bet Later
With both sides involved in shootouts in Week 14, there’s only one way for this total to go. This number was as short as 50.5 O/U on the look-ahead line but is now steaming upwards like Bitcoin since Election Day.
The Detroit Lions defense was banged up in last Thursday’s wild win over the Packers, but it made plays when it needed to and should get some bodies back for this potential Super Bowl preview.
The Buffalo Bills, on the other hand, may have received a wake-up call on the defensive side of the ball with their high-scoring finish against the Rams. The Bills entered that game ranked No. 8 in EPA allowed per play and don’t want to get into a shootout on Detroit's turf.
Where’s the tipping point for Under bettors in this one?
As it stands at 53.5 points, this is tied for the biggest total of 2024 (Rams-Lions Week 1). The largest closing Over/Under number we’ve seen over the last three years is 55 — a key number in NFL total betting.
With little reason to take the Under other than line movement getting out of control, let’s wait and see how many bettors go for the Over in the biggest game of the year. Maybe then, if we see a 55 O/U, we can think about betting the Under.
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