When I pitched this weekly column in the preseason, the intention was to give college football bettors actionable insights first thing on Sunday morning before the odds board begins lighting up with the next week’s games.
That may be more important this Sunday than any other week, even if we hardly have games to predict. As soon as the 12-team College Football Playoff bracket is revealed, there will be futures value to be had.
Before we dive into the insights gleaned from the conference championship games — Oregon’s offense does indeed still have that highest gear, while Georgia can’t find that gear under any circumstances — let’s discuss the Playoff bracket and the path that will provide the most gambling value. And allow me to build that discussion step by step.
To offer a spoiler, though, a final bracket projection:
The final @Covers Playoff bracket projection. pic.twitter.com/FuzooUdvKF
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 8, 2024
College football Week 15 things you should overreact to
Do overreact if somehow Alabama gets into the Playoff field.
Grant that there are only 13 teams in the mix for this 12-team Playoff.
- Five conference champions: Oregon, Georgia, Boise State, Clemson and Arizona State.
- Two at-large teams who were in the top-three before losing close title games this weekend: Texas and Penn State.
- Four at-large teams within the top-10 that were idle this weekend: Notre Dame, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana.
- Two teams in the debate for the final spot: SMU and Alabama.
Given SMU came within a 56-yard field goal as time expired from going to overtime in a conference championship game, it would be an absolute shame if the selection committee left out the Mustangs in favor of the three-loss Tide. It is possible, but it should not be the case.
Now, if it is the case, whoever has to face Alabama in the first round has drawn a short straw. The Tide have a national title ceiling. They would be the worst draw for a home team in the first-round, at least a field goal better than the next worrying possibility, Tennessee.
Douglas' advice: If Alabama is in the Playoff, downgrade the corresponding home team in the first round and think twice before betting any such futures.
Do overreact to whoever lands the No. 6 seed.
Now grant, Alabama aside, that four of these teams are a cut below the rest of the field. They are by no means bad. But they are not distinct national title contenders.
Boise State, Clemson, Arizona State, and SMU have all had excellent seasons, Boise State and SMU trended upward most of the year while Clemson and Arizona State valleyed early in the season before surging in the second half of the fall. But they are a cut below.
Logically, those four teams will fill the Nos. 3, 4, 11, and 12 seeds. Who lands where is anybody’s guess, but they should fill those spots with the possible frustrating replacement of Alabama.
As long as the Tide are not in the 11 spot, then the No. 6 seed will be the most enviable path to the National Championship Game.
Your first instinct may be to think the No. 5 seed has the most enviable path to the title, but ponder the top-two teams. Oregon should be No. 1, and Georgia should be No. 2.
Only one of those two has had a shuffling offense all season long, one that is now possibly without its championship-winning quarterback after an apparent elbow injury on Saturday afternoon. The chance to face Georgia in the Playoff semifinals elevates the No. 6-seed’s path to the best runway to the national championship game.
Douglas' advice: Facing two of those inferior four teams before dodging any chance at Oregon before the National Championship Game? Whoever draws that should warrant your consideration as a futures bet.
Arguably, only four teams are in position to be that No. 6 seed. As of Sunday’s earliest hours, looking at the six most common sportsbooks in the United States, the best odds on those four are +450 on Texas at DraftKings, +500 on Ohio State at BetRivers, +750 on Notre Dame at Caesars, and +1,400 on Penn State at Caesars. Once the bracket is announced, that No. 6 seed’s odds will start to fall. Act quickly if you want value in the semifinals and possibly the title game.
Do overreact to Carson Beck’s apparent elbow injury.
The hit did not look particularly gruesome, but anyone who has ever thrown a ball with some velocity could understand the wretched force put upon Georgia quarterback Carson Beck’s elbow just before halftime on Saturday night.
Carson Beck took a big shot there pic.twitter.com/23lj7W4qKF
— Mr Matthew CFB (@MrMatthew_CFB) December 7, 2024
Beck was ruled out for the rest of the game, only to return for the game-winning handoff in overtime when backup quarterback Gunner Stockton lost his helmet on a violent, but clean, tackle and needed to be on the sideline for a snap by rule. As Beck came onto the field for that single play, his right arm hung at his side.
Maybe he is alright. Georgia will certainly keep its mouth shut for at least Sunday, if not for much of December. But Beck has an NFL future no matter what his critics may argue. If he needs surgery to repair an injury in order to be ready in time for the NFL draft, he is likely to have the surgery.
The Bulldogs may have won, but they did not look good with Stockton at quarterback. Sure, they scored a touchdown on their opening drive of the second half, but that drive was heavily scripted. Once Texas refocused its defense on pressuring Stockton, he struggled. Stockton averaged a disastrous 4.4 yards per pass attempt. On five drives before overtime, Georgia averaged 4.49 yards per play.
The Longhorns have an excellent defense, but that was more about the Bulldogs’ continued offensive miseries. If they get caught in a shootout in the Playoff, they are going to be in a pile of trouble.
Douglas' advice: Aside from quickly focusing on the No. 6 seed, also ponder a future on whoever you think will win the No. 7 vs. No. 10 matchup. They are not likely to win the National Championship, but if and when Beck is ruled out, there will be immediate value in that futures ticket, something that can help your portfolio in the quarterfinals.
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Do overreact to Oregon’s quarterfinal opponent.
Going by the above projections, the No. 1 Oregon Ducks likely will face either Ohio State or Tennessee in the quarterfinals of the Playoff after the Ducks take three full weeks off. At the very least, the Volunteers should be locked into that No. 9 seed.
Anything is possible. That is the beauty of college football. Northern Illinois beat Notre Dame, Vanderbilt beat Alabama, and this night owl woke up at sunrise for a live broadcast on 16 straight Saturday mornings. Upsets happen.
But Oregon showed off its peak capacity again this weekend. For the first time in a month, the Ducks did not play with their bread crumbs. That 45-37 shootout with Penn State was not an indictment of Oregon’s defense so much as it was a reflection of what the Ducks can do at peak capacity.
With the bye into the quarterfinals, the Ducks will be well-rested. What do they do when well-rested? They fly fast. So fast that a Penn State linebacker was vomiting at the goal line in the first quarter on Saturday night.
— Ben Jones (@Ben_Jones88) December 8, 2024
Oregon produces scoring opportunities on nearly 60% of possessions. It will take a truly elite and consistent pass defense to slow down the Ducks.
Douglas' advice: An Oregon and Ohio State rematch would be a delight, but do not invest in any Buckeyes’ futures if they are on that short of a collision course for the Ducks. If so inclined, bet Ohio State’s moneyline on a round-by-round basis. That will pay better if Oregon is that nearby.
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